Who is favored to win the House in 2026?

Democrats, at 89% on Polymarket's House control market as of 16 Sep 2026, 20:36 UTC. The price is what traders pay for a contract that pays $1 if that party controls the House after the election.

Who is favored to win the Senate in 2026?

Democrats, at 57% on Polymarket's Senate control market as of 16 Sep 2026, 20:36 UTC. Individual Senate races are listed in the race board on this page, closest contests first.

When are the 2026 midterm elections?

Election Day is Tuesday, 3 November 2026. Markets on individual races usually resolve when major networks call the race or the result is certified, as each market's rules state.

How accurate are prediction markets on elections?

Prices on heavily traded contracts have generally tracked outcomes well near resolution, but they move with news and can be thin on individual House races. The volume shown beside each race tells you how much trading stands behind the price.

Do Polymarket and Kalshi show the same midterm odds?

Usually within a few points on the same race, but the contracts are written differently and some pay on the party rather than the named candidate. Vultax compares the two venues in its midterms research.

2026 Midterm Elections Tracker · Live Senate, House and Governor Odds

Open markets

1,384

604 Polymarket events

Races priced

505

35 Senate · 35 governor · 435 House

Race volume, 24h

$167K

traded across the race markets

Chamber control, 24h

$188K

House and Senate control markets

Closest Senate race

Texas

James Talarico 56%

How chamber control has been priced

The price of a contract that pays $1 if the Democrats control the chamber after the election, read from Polymarket’s own trade history. Each line covers as much of the last quarter as the market has traded for.

House control — last 90 days

Democratic control, priced on Polymarket

81% → 88%30d 0 · 7d +1.0 pts

Senate control — last 90 days

Democratic control, priced on Polymarket

44% → 57%30d +5.0 · 7d +5.0 pts

About the 2026 midterm election markets

This tracker reads every open Polymarket market tagged to the 2026 US midterms and sorts it into chamber control, the balance of power, seat projections and individual races — 35 Senate, 35 governor and 435 House races priced right now. Prices refresh every minute and the time of the last read is shown on the board.

A price is the cost of a contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens, so 58¢ reads as a 58% chance. Race markets differ in what they pay on: some pay on the named candidate, others on the party that wins the seat, which matters if a nominee changes. The rules on each market page decide.

Election Day is Tuesday, 3 November 2026. Chamber-control markets can take longer to settle than race markets, because control depends on the final seat count and, in a close Senate, on who organises the chamber.

How 2026 midterm markets resolved

The most recently settled markets under the same midterms tag — primaries, special elections and nomination questions — with the outcome that paid and the total traded over each market’s life. A settled market is the only place a price can be checked against what happened.

2026 midterms: recently resolved markets
Market	Resolved as	Total volume	Settled
Providence, RI Democratic Mayoral Nominee	David Morales	$93.9K	10 Sep 2026
How many Republican House members not running in 2026?	36–39	$108K	4 Sep 2026
How many Democratic House members not running in 2026?	20–23	$64.8K	4 Sep 2026
How many Republican Senators not running in 2026?	7	$145K	4 Sep 2026
Vote winner in Alaska Senate primary final round?	Mary Peltola	$93.2K

Questions

2026 midterm odds: questions and answers

Who is favored to win the House in 2026?: Democrats, at 89% on Polymarket's House control market as of 16 Sep 2026, 20:36 UTC. The price is what traders pay for a contract that pays $1 if that party controls the House after the election.
Who is favored to win the Senate in 2026?: Democrats, at 57% on Polymarket's Senate control market as of 16 Sep 2026, 20:36 UTC. Individual Senate races are listed in the race board on this page, closest contests first.
When are the 2026 midterm elections?: Election Day is Tuesday, 3 November 2026. Markets on individual races usually resolve when major networks call the race or the result is certified, as each market's rules state.
How accurate are prediction markets on elections?: Prices on heavily traded contracts have generally tracked outcomes well near resolution, but they move with news and can be thin on individual House races. The volume shown beside each race tells you how much trading stands behind the price.
Do Polymarket and Kalshi show the same midterm odds?: Usually within a few points on the same race, but the contracts are written differently and some pay on the party rather than the named candidate. Vultax compares the two venues in its midterms research.