Who will win the Senate in 2026, according to Polymarket?

The Democrats, at 77% on Polymarket's Senate control market as of 2 Nov 2026, 23:11 UTC. The price is what traders pay for a contract that pays $1 if that party controls the Senate after the election; each priced Senate race has its own page, linked from this room.

Who will win the House in 2026, according to Polymarket?

The Democrats, at 95% on Polymarket's House control market as of 2 Nov 2026, 23:11 UTC. Control turns on all 435 seats; the seat markets on this page price the size of the majority.

Which party will control Congress after the 2026 midterms?

Polymarket's balance-of-power market, which pays on the Senate and House result together, has “Democrats sweep” as the likeliest outcome at 74% as of 2 Nov 2026, 23:11 UTC, ahead of “R Senate, D House” at 19%.

When are the 2026 midterm elections?

Election Day is Tuesday, 3 November 2026. Markets on individual races usually resolve when major networks call the race or the result is certified, as each market's rules state.

How accurate are prediction markets on elections?

Prices on heavily traded contracts have generally tracked outcomes well near resolution, but they move with news and can be thin on individual House races. The volume shown beside each race tells you how much trading stands behind the price.

Do midterm markets pay on the party or the candidate?

It depends on the market. The chamber-control markets pay on which party holds the majority after the election. A race market pays on the winner of one seat, named by party in some markets and by candidate in others, and that wording decides how a withdrawal or a party switch settles. The rules on each market page say which.

2026 Midterms Odds on Polymarket

1,783 markets

94.5%

House control

Democrats

0.0 pts 24h

76.5%

Senate control

Democrats

+5.0 pts 24h

Balance of power$8.3M 24h

Democrats sweep73.5%

Democrats sweep73.5%
R Senate, D House18.5%
D Senate, R House0.5%
Republicans sweep4.5%
Other0.1%

Election Day

1day

Tue 3 Nov 2026

Add election night to my calendar

Your stateThe room opens on it next time. Kept in this browser only.

Map35 races

DemocratsRepublicans

IowaAshley Hinson50.5%-8.0 pts 24h | $219.5K traded

Seat math

Republican House seats$48.8K 24h

192median

Majority 218

Republican Senate seats$442.5K 24h

47median

Control 50

Republican governors$837 24h

21median

Most governorships: Democrats 87.5%

Movers24h

Biggest moves

Most traded

2026 US Midterms, the market's forecast

Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms

Democrats Sweep73.5%

Democrats Sweep74%

R Senate, D House19%

Democrats Sweep74%
R Senate, D House19%
Republicans Sweep4.5%
Everyone else3.5%

Election day

1 day

3 Nov 2026

Traded, 24h

$8.3M

in this market

Traded, all time

$59M

$12M resting now

All related markets, 24h

$43M

473 markets across 93 events

Comments

484

on Polymarket

Try it on paper

Democrats SweepYes74¢No27¢
R Senate, D HouseYes19¢No82¢
Republicans SweepYes4.5¢No96¢
D Senate, R HouseYes0.55¢No99.45¢
OtherYes0.05¢No99.95¢

Vi IQ: what actually moved

Each outcome is measured against its own normal daily swing over 30 days

R Senate, D House: Down 4.0 points in 24 hours, 8.0× its normal daily swing. Down 8.0 on the week. At its lowest in 30 days. Volume is 2.7× a normal day, so money came with it. 2 other outcomes moved by more than noise.

R Senate, D House19%100Meaningful
Sharp fall24h −4.07d −8.0normal day ±0.5
Down 4.0 points in 24 hours, 8.0× its normal daily swing. Down 8.0 on the week. At its lowest in 30 days. Volume is 2.7× a normal day, so money came with it.
Democrats Sweep74%98Meaningful
Sharp rise24h +4.07d +8.0normal day ±1.0
Up 4.0 points in 24 hours, 4.0× its normal daily swing. Up 8.0 on the week. At its highest in 30 days. Volume is 2.7× a normal day, so money came with it.
Republicans Sweep4.5%58Notable
Steady slide24h +0.07d −3.0normal day ±0.4
Down 3.0 points in a week, 2.8× a normal week for this contract. At its lowest in 30 days. Volume is 2.7× a normal day, so money came with it.

Research is free. Create a free account to save room watches and use your Vi allowance.

The race, last 30 days

Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms

Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms: price 30 days ago and now
Outcome	30 days ago	Now
Democrats Sweep	65%	74%
R Senate, D House	28%	19%
Republicans Sweep	6.5%	4.5%

What happened

17 sources, last read 23:05 UTC

548 hours to the midterms – Can XRP repeat its 280% post-election rally?2 Nov, 23:00 UTC · AMBCrypto
4New Jersey drops Coinbase staking order ahead of crypto’s midterm test2 Nov, 22:22 UTC · Cointelegraph
3Kalshi, Polymarket Predictors Favor Democrats to Sweep 2026 Midterms2 Nov, 21:50 UTC · Bitcoin.com
2Bitcoin has not priced in potential Democratic midterm victory, Hilbert CIO warns2 Nov, 18:02 UTC · CryptoBriefing
1How Bitcoin Looks Heading Into a High-Stakes US Midterm Election Week2 Nov, 15:05 UTC · BeInCrypto

Headlines sit at their own time. A headline near a move is not its cause.

Where the money went today

$43M across 93 events

What an order really pays

Order book depth and the average price a $1,000 and a $10,000 buy order would pay
Outcome	Bid / ask	Within 2¢	$1K pays	$10K pays
Democrats Sweep	73¢/74¢	$1.1M, $570K	74¢+0.0	74¢+0.0
R Senate, D House	18¢/19¢	$29.5K, $9.0K	19¢+0.0	20¢+1.1
Republicans Sweep	4¢/5¢	$92.9K, $200K	5¢+0.0	5¢+0.0
D Senate, R House	0.5¢/0.6¢	$8.5K, $60.4K	0.69¢+0.1	1.1¢+0.5
Other	—/0.1¢	$0, $812	0.29¢+0.2	2.6¢+2.5

Most argued about

Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms484 comments$8.3M 24h
Which party will win the Senate in 2026?378 comments$3.1M 24h
Texas Senate Election Winner243 comments$1.4M 24h
Michigan Senate Election Winner221 comments$1.5M 24h
Maine Senate Election Winner93 comments$423K 24h

Big money

40 of 212 prints, 7 days

Sold Yes at 33¢ Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats?$4.0K0x27f6…400b2.2% of $184K at the touch10 min later: no reading
Bought Yes at 6¢ Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?$2.3KLukasSensi1.4% of $168K at the touch10 min later: no reading
Bought Yes at 74¢ 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House$7.4KRockyZet1.3% of $570K at the touch10 min later 74¢ (−0.5 pts)
Bought Yes at 74¢ 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House$7.4KRockyZet1.3% of $570K at the touch10 min later 74¢ (−0.5 pts)
Bought Yes at 5¢ 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House$4.7KVgsps112.3% of $200K at the touch10 min later 4.5¢ (−0.5 pts)
Bought Yes at 95¢ Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?$14.3KOutsmarter<0.1% of $23M at the touch10 min later 95¢ (−0.5 pts)
Bought Yes at 95¢ Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?$14.3Kcongoterrier<0.1% of $23M at the touch10 min later 95¢ (−0.5 pts)
Bought Yes at 34¢ Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats?$13.6KParz1vaI1.6% of $877K at the touch10 min later 34¢ (−0.5 pts)
Bought No at 26¢ 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House$109KPTMF-S126% of $414K at the touch10 min later 27¢ (+0.6 pts)
Bought No at 27¢ 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House$6.5KStarryPath1.6% of $414K at the touch10 min later 27¢ (−0.4 pts)
Bought No at 24¢ 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House$8.6KPTMF-S12.1% of $414K at the touch10 min later 27¢ (+2.5 pts)
Bought Yes at 77¢ 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House$6.3KSethlb1.1% of $570K at the touch10 min later 74¢ (−3.5 pts)
Bought Yes at 11¢ Will Republicans win Iowa, and lose Alaska, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?$1.1K328.400.fund1.1% of $103K at the touch10 min later 11¢ (−0.1 pts)
Bought Yes at 11¢ Will Republicans win Iowa, and lose Alaska, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?$3.8KContestable-Parfait3.7% of $103K at the touch10 min later 11¢ (−0.1 pts)
Bought Yes at 76¢ 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House$15.5KSethlb2.7% of $570K at the touch10 min later 77¢ (+0.5 pts)
Sold Yes at 76¢ 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House$12.9KRyxon211.2% of $1.1M at the touch10 min later 76¢ (−0.5 pts)
Bought Yes at 96¢ Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?$50.9Kpennedreadful0.2% of $23M at the touch10 min later 96¢ (−0.5 pts)
Bought Yes at 96¢ Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?$96.0KKnightDasCapital0.4% of $23M at the touch10 min later 96¢ (−0.5 pts)
Sold No at 66¢ Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats?$132KUnderperformingForALiving8.2% of $1.6M at the touch10 min later 67¢ (+0.5 pts)
Bought No at 5¢ Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?$4.8KLibratus0072.3% of $204K at the touch10 min later: no reading
Bought Yes at 11¢ Will Republicans win Iowa, and lose Alaska, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?$1.8KHorribleWork1.7% of $103K at the touch10 min later 11¢ (+0.1 pts)
Sold Yes at 4¢ 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House$2.5KVgsps112.7% of $92.9K at the touch10 min later 4.5¢ (+0.5 pts)
Bought Yes at 18¢ 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House$1.0KFerwhere11% of $9.0K at the touch10 min later 18¢ (−0.5 pts)
Sold No at 22¢ 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House$9.7KUnderperformingForALiving5.2% of $187K at the touch10 min later 23¢ (+0.5 pts)
Bought Yes at 78¢ 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House$52.2KSejourney9.2% of $570K at the touch10 min later 78¢ (−0.3 pts)
Sold Yes at 95¢ Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?$25.6KLulaVaiPerder0.8% of $3.0M at the touch10 min later 96¢ (+0.5 pts)
Bought Yes at 32¢ Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats?$12.0Kvavwqevw1.4% of $877K at the touch10 min later 34¢ (+1.5 pts)
Bought Yes at 96¢ Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?$33.8Kmachbut0.1% of $23M at the touch10 min later 96¢ (−0.5 pts)
Sold Yes at 18¢ 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House$1.5Ktimetowander5.0% of $29.5K at the touch10 min later 19¢ (+0.5 pts)
Bought Yes at 75¢ 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House$7.6Kmachbut1.3% of $570K at the touch10 min later 77¢ (+1.5 pts)
Bought Yes at 7.0¢ Will Republicans win Iowa and Kansas, and lose Alaska, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?$1.8Kkickstandhater2.0% of $91.5K at the touch10 min later: no reading
Bought Yes at 75¢ 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House$5.3KRockyZet0.9% of $570K at the touch10 min later 77¢ (+1.5 pts)
Sold No at 68¢ Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats?$6.8Kandy290.4% of $1.6M at the touch10 min later 68¢ (−0.5 pts)
Bought No at 96¢ Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?$11.2KStarryPath<0.1% of $21M at the touch10 min later 96¢ (−0.4 pts)
Bought No at 95¢ Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?$200KImpressive-Steak0.9% of $21M at the touch10 min later 96¢ (+0.5 pts)
Sold Yes at 95¢ Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?$21.9KLulaVaiPerder0.7% of $3.0M at the touch10 min later 96¢ (+0.5 pts)
Bought Yes at 11¢ Will Republicans win Iowa, and lose Alaska, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?$1.7K328.400.fund1.7% of $103K at the touch10 min later 11¢ (−0.4 pts)
Sold Yes at 19¢ 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House$1.2K0x8829…06e03.9% of $29.5K at the touch10 min later 20¢ (+0.5 pts)
Bought Yes at 11¢ Will Republicans win Iowa, and lose Alaska, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?$17.2KArbguy17% of $103K at the touch10 min later 11¢ (−0.4 pts)
Bought Yes at 32¢ Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats?$9.6KYouNoWho1.1% of $877K at the touch10 min later 32¢ (−0.5 pts)

Vultax Research: what copying a Polymarket trade 30 seconds late costs

Holders this week

0xa5ef…2966No, R Senate, D House$5.4Mno trade record
ndb1Yes, Democrats Sweep$2.8Maddedsince 22 Oct+$129K this week
0xa5ef…2966No, Democrats Sweep$1.8Mno trade record
tnmhYes, Democrats Sweep$791Knew this weeksince 28 Oct+$320K this week
PTMF-S1No, Democrats Sweep$582Knew this weeksince 31 Oct+$302K this week
ndb1Yes, R Senate, D House$559Kcutsince 8 Oct−$72.6K this week
midtermsYes, Democrats Sweep$340Kheldsince 14 Oct
BreakTheBankNo, R Senate, D House$267Kno trade record
TeamAYes, Democrats Sweep$265Kheldsince 4 Oct
SlavaUkrainiYes, Democrats Sweep$252Kaddedsince 26 Oct+$158K this week
UnderperformingForALivingYes, Democrats Sweep$224Knew this weeksince 29 Oct+$16.5K this week
Sunguyen86Yes, R Senate, D House$146Kaddedsince 1 Oct+$1.2K this week

Vultax Research: how Polymarket trader leaderboards compare

Movement log

Last recorded read: 2026-11-02 23:02 UTC

R Senate, D House19%2 Nov, 20:18 UTC
Down 4.0 points in 24 hours, 8.0× its normal daily swing. Down 8.0 on the week. At its lowest in 30 days. Volume is 2.5× a normal day, so money came with it.
R Senate, D House20%2 Nov, 19:33 UTC
Down 7.0 points in a week, 5.3× a normal week for this contract. At its lowest in 30 days. Volume is 2.8× a normal day, so money came with it.
Democrats Sweep75%2 Nov, 19:33 UTC
Up 5.0 points in 24 hours, 5.0× its normal daily swing. Up 9.0 on the week. At its highest in 30 days. Volume is 2.8× a normal day, so money came with it.
Republicans Sweep6.5%2 Nov, 18:33 UTC
Up 2.0 points in 24 hours, 5.0× its normal daily swing. Volume is 2.5× a normal day, so money came with it.
Democrats Sweep73%2 Nov, 18:18 UTC
Up 7.0 points in a week, 2.6× a normal week for this contract. At its highest in 30 days.
Republicans Sweep4.5%2 Nov, 15:18 UTC
Down 3.0 points in a week, 2.8× a normal week for this contract. At its lowest in 30 days.
Republicans Sweep5.5%2 Nov, 07:48 UTC
Up 1.0 points on the day, against a week that ran down 2.0: 2.5× its normal daily swing, the other way.
R Senate, D House23%2 Nov, 07:18 UTC
Down 4.0 points in a week, 3.0× a normal week for this contract. At its lowest in 30 days.
Democrats Sweep72%2 Nov, 06:03 UTC
Up 6.0 points in a week, 2.3× a normal week for this contract. At its highest in 30 days.
Republicans Sweep5.5%1 Nov, 19:33 UTC
Up 1.0 points on the day, against a week that ran down 2.0: 2.5× its normal daily swing, the other way.
Republicans Sweep4.5%1 Nov, 18:33 UTC
Down 3.0 points in a week, 2.8× a normal week for this contract. At its lowest in 30 days.
R Senate, D House23%1 Nov, 18:03 UTC
Down 2.0 points in 24 hours, 4.0× its normal daily swing. Down 3.0 on the week. At its lowest in 30 days.
Democrats Sweep72%1 Nov, 13:48 UTC
Up 5.0 points in a week, 1.9× a normal week for this contract. At its highest in 30 days.
R Senate, D House23%1 Nov, 07:03 UTC
Down 2.0 points in 24 hours, 2.0× its normal daily swing. Down 3.0 on the week. At its lowest in 30 days.
Republicans Sweep4.5%1 Nov, 06:18 UTC
Down 3.0 points in a week, 2.8× a normal week for this contract. At its lowest in 30 days.
Democrats Sweep72%1 Nov, 01:33 UTC
Up 5.0 points in a week, 1.9× a normal week for this contract. At its highest in 30 days.
Democrats Sweep71%1 Nov, 01:18 UTC
Up 4.0 points in a week, 1.5× a normal week for this contract.
Republicans Sweep4.5%31 Oct, 18:03 UTC
Down 3.0 points in a week, 2.8× a normal week for this contract. 3 days running in the same direction. At its lowest in 30 days.
Democrats Sweep71%31 Oct, 13:15 UTC
Up 4.0 points in a week, 1.5× a normal week for this contract.
Republicans Sweep4.5%31 Oct, 13:15 UTC
Down 2.0 points in 24 hours, 5.0× its normal daily swing. Down 3.0 on the week. At its lowest in 30 days.
Democrats Sweep71%31 Oct, 03:38 UTC
Up 3.0 points in 24 hours, 3.0× its normal daily swing. Up 4.0 on the week.
Republicans Sweep5.5%31 Oct, 00:18 UTC
Down 3.0 points in a week, 2.8× a normal week for this contract. At its lowest in 30 days.
R Senate, D House23%30 Oct, 23:33 UTC
Down 4.0 points in 24 hours, 8.0× its normal daily swing. At its lowest in 30 days.
Republicans Sweep5.5%30 Oct, 15:48 UTC
Down 1.0 points in 24 hours, 2.5× its normal daily swing. Down 2.0 on the week. At its lowest in 30 days.

Work this room

Ballot measures and maps

2 markets, $42.4K traded in 24h

Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?

$38.9K 24h, $254K liquidity, closes 4 Nov 2026

Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?: priced outcomes, most likely first
Outcome	Chance	24h	7d	24h volume	Liquidity	Closes	Paper trade
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?	26%	—	—	$38.9K	$155K	4 Nov 2026	Yes26¢No75¢

Which states will use new congressional maps in the midterms?

$3.5K 24h, $222K liquidity, closes 4 Nov 2026

Which states will use new congressional maps in the midterms?: priced outcomes, most likely first
Outcome	Chance	24h	7d	24h volume	Liquidity	Closes	Paper trade
Utah	98%	—	—	$616	$15.6K	4 Nov 2026	Yes98¢No2.1¢
Texas	98%	—	—	$404	$12.7K	3 Nov 2026	Yes98¢No2.2¢
California	98%	—	—	$90	$13.8K	4 Nov 2026	Yes98¢No2.4¢
Florida	97%	—	—	$80	$10.6K	4 Nov 2026	Yes97¢No2.6¢
North Carolina	97%	—	—	$158	$384	3 Nov 2026	Yes97¢No3.4¢
Ohio	96%	—	—	$55	$12.3K	4 Nov 2026	Yes96¢No3.8¢
Louisiana	55%	—	—	$1.4K	$160	4 Nov 2026	Yes55¢No45¢
Alabama	28%	—	—	$30	$304	4 Nov 2026	Yes28¢No73¢
Illinois	11%	—	—	$60	$232	4 Nov 2026	Yes11¢No89¢
Virginia	5.3%	—	—	$449	$10.5K	4 Nov 2026	Yes5.3¢No95¢
Nebraska	4.0%	—	—	$0	$10.4K	4 Nov 2026	Yes4.0¢No96¢
Indiana	3.4%	—	—	$10	$14.5K	4 Nov 2026	Yes3.4¢No97¢
Kansas	3.3%	—	—	$10	$11.8K	4 Nov 2026	Yes3.3¢No97¢
New Jersey	3.0%	—	—	$5	$12.5K	4 Nov 2026	Yes3.0¢No97¢
South Carolina	2.9%	—	—	$10	$14.4K	4 Nov 2026	Yes2.9¢No97¢
Minnesota	2.9%	—	—	$50	$10.9K	4 Nov 2026	Yes2.9¢No97¢
Wisconsin	2.8%	—	—	$10	$15.6K	4 Nov 2026	Yes2.8¢No97¢
Georgia	2.7%	—	—	$50	$10.2K	4 Nov 2026	Yes2.7¢No97¢
Missouri	2.7%	—	—	$10	$12.0K	4 Nov 2026	Yes2.7¢No97¢
Maryland	2.5%	—	—	$10	$10.5K	4 Nov 2026	Yes2.5¢No97¢
Washington	2.5%	—	—	$0	$11.2K	4 Nov 2026	Yes2.5¢No97¢
New York	2.3%	—	—	$0	$12.2K	4 Nov 2026	Yes2.3¢No98¢

Open markets

1,783

690 Polymarket events

Races priced

506

35 Senate, 36 governor, 435 House

Race volume, 24h

$9.0M

traded across the race markets

Chamber control, 24h

$6.7M

House and Senate control markets

Closest Senate race

Iowa

Ashley Hinson 51%

How chamber control has been priced

The price of a contract that pays $1 if the Democrats control the chamber after the election, read from Polymarket’s own trade history. Each line covers as much of the last quarter as the market has traded for.

House control — last 90 days

Democratic control, priced on Polymarket

87% → 95%30d +2.0, 7d +3.0 pts

Senate control — last 90 days

Democratic control, priced on Polymarket

45% → 77%30d +12, 7d +9.0 pts

About the 2026 midterm election markets

This tracker reads every open Polymarket market tagged to the 2026 US midterms and sorts it into chamber control, the balance of power, seat projections and individual races — 35 Senate, 36 governor and 435 House races priced right now. Prices refresh every minute and the time of the last read is shown on the board.

A price is the cost of a contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens, so 58¢ reads as a 58% chance. Race markets differ in what they pay on: some pay on the named candidate, others on the party that wins the seat, which matters if a nominee changes. The rules on each market page decide.

Election Day is Tuesday, 3 November 2026. Chamber-control markets can take longer to settle than race markets, because control depends on the final seat count and, in a close Senate, on who organises the chamber.

How 2026 midterm markets resolved

The most recently settled markets under the same midterms tag — primaries, special elections and nomination questions — with the outcome that paid and the total traded over each market’s life. A settled market is the only place a price can be checked against what happened.

2026 midterms: recently resolved markets
Market	Resolved as	Total volume	Settled
Democratic Senate odds on November 2?	>68%	$19.3K	2 Nov 2026
What will Trump say during his Midterm rally in Kansas?	Million / Billion / Trillion 25+ times	$43.7K	2 Nov 2026
What will Trump say during his Midterm rally in Iowa?	Hell 15+ times	$35.7K	2 Nov 2026
Democratic Senate odds on November 1?	>68%	$10.9K	1 Nov 2026
Republican Senate odds hit __ by October 31?	↓ 30%	$209K	1 Nov 2026
Republican House odds hit __ by October 31?	↓ 7%	$295K	1 Nov 2026
What will Trump say during his Midterm Rally in Lubbock, Texas?	Million / Billion / Trillion 25+ times	$330K	1 Nov 2026
What will Trump say during his Midterm rally in Florida?	Crazy 7+ times	$41.9K	31 Oct 2026
What will Trump say during his Midterm Rally in South Carolina?	Hell 15+ times	$51.7K	30 Oct 2026
What will Trump say during his Midterm Rally in Ohio?	Million / Billion / Trillion 25+ times	$65.8K	29 Oct 2026

Every Senate and governor race, one page each

Each page carries the race's odds, its outside number (FEC money for a Senate seat, public attention for a governorship) and the market's record 30, 7 and 1 days before the vote. Races whose market has traded less than $25,000 are left off this list until it has.

Senate, 30

Alaska Senate RaceMary Peltola 73%
Arkansas Senate RaceTom Cotton 96%
Colorado Senate RaceJohn Hickenlooper >99%
Delaware Senate RaceDemocrat >99%
Florida Senate Special ElectionAshley Moody 88%
Georgia Senate RaceJon Ossoff 97%
Idaho Senate RaceJim Risch 97%
Illinois Senate RaceJuliana Stratton >99%
Iowa Senate RaceAshley Hinson 51%
Kansas Senate RaceAdam Hamilton 62%
Kentucky Senate RaceAndy Barr 96%
Louisiana Senate RaceJulia Letlow 87%
Maine Senate RaceTroy Jackson 74%
Massachusetts Senate RaceEd Markey >99%
Michigan Senate RaceAbdul El-Sayed 80%
Minnesota Senate RacePeggy Flanagan 93%
Mississippi Senate RaceCindy Hyde-Smith 86%
Montana Senate RaceKurt Alme 92%
Nebraska Senate RacePete Ricketts 72%
New Hampshire Senate RaceChris Pappas 96%
New Jersey Senate RaceCory Booker 99%
New Mexico Senate RaceBen Ray Luján >99%
North Carolina Senate RaceRoy Cooper 98%
Ohio Senate Special ElectionSherrod Brown 72%
Oklahoma Senate RaceKevin Hern 99%
Rhode Island Senate RaceJack Reed >99%
South Carolina Senate RaceDarline Graham Nordone 68%
South Dakota Senate RaceMike Rounds 95%
Tennessee Senate RaceBill Hagerty 98%
Texas Senate RaceJames Talarico 75%

Governor, 32

Alabama Governor RaceTommy Tuberville 94%
Alaska Governor RaceJonathan Kreiss-Tomkins 89%
Arizona Governor RaceKatie Hobbs 94%
California Governor RaceXavier Becerra 98%
Florida Governor RaceByron Donalds 66%
Georgia Governor RaceKeisha Lance Bottoms 70%
Hawaii Governor RaceJosh Green 98%
Idaho Governor RaceBrad Little >99%
Illinois Governor RaceJB Pritzker >99%
Iowa Governor RaceRob Sand 88%
Kansas Governor RaceTy Masterson 70%
Maine Governor RaceHannah Pingree 97%
Maryland Governor RaceWes Moore >99%
Massachusetts Governor RaceMaura Healey 98%
Michigan Governor RaceJocelyn Benson 96%
Minnesota Governor RaceAmy Klobuchar 98%
Nebraska Governor RaceJim Pillen 90%
Nevada Governor RaceAaron Ford 76%
New Hampshire Governor RaceKelly Ayotte 87%
New Mexico Governor RaceDeb Haaland 96%
New York Governor RaceKathy Hochul 97%
Ohio Governor RaceAmy Acton 83%
Oklahoma Governor RaceMike Mazzei 92%
Oregon Governor RaceTina Kotek 84%
Pennsylvania Governor RaceJosh Shapiro 98%
Rhode Island Governor RaceHelena Foulkes 98%
South Carolina Governor RaceAlan Wilson 97%
South Dakota Governor RaceLarry Rhoden 98%
Tennessee Governor RaceMarsha Blackburn 95%
Texas Governor RaceGreg Abbott 61%
Vermont Governor RacePhil Scott 72%
Wisconsin Governor RaceDavid Crowley 86%

Questions

2026 midterm odds: questions and answers

Who will win the Senate in 2026, according to Polymarket?: The Democrats, at 77% on Polymarket's Senate control market as of 2 Nov 2026, 23:11 UTC. The price is what traders pay for a contract that pays $1 if that party controls the Senate after the election; each priced Senate race has its own page, linked from this room.
Who will win the House in 2026, according to Polymarket?: The Democrats, at 95% on Polymarket's House control market as of 2 Nov 2026, 23:11 UTC. Control turns on all 435 seats; the seat markets on this page price the size of the majority.
Which party will control Congress after the 2026 midterms?: Polymarket's balance-of-power market, which pays on the Senate and House result together, has “Democrats sweep” as the likeliest outcome at 74% as of 2 Nov 2026, 23:11 UTC, ahead of “R Senate, D House” at 19%.
When are the 2026 midterm elections?: Election Day is Tuesday, 3 November 2026. Markets on individual races usually resolve when major networks call the race or the result is certified, as each market's rules state.
How accurate are prediction markets on elections?: Prices on heavily traded contracts have generally tracked outcomes well near resolution, but they move with news and can be thin on individual House races. The volume shown beside each race tells you how much trading stands behind the price.
Do midterm markets pay on the party or the candidate?: It depends on the market. The chamber-control markets pay on which party holds the majority after the election. A race market pays on the winner of one seat, named by party in some markets and by candidate in others, and that wording decides how a withdrawal or a party switch settles. The rules on each market page say which.

Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms

Vi IQ: what actually moved

The race, last 30 days

What happened

Where the money went today

What an order really pays

Most argued about

Big money

Holders this week

Movement log

Work this room

Ballot measures and maps

Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?

Which states will use new congressional maps in the midterms?

What this room holds

How chamber control has been priced

House control — last 90 days

Senate control — last 90 days

About the 2026 midterm election markets

How 2026 midterm markets resolved

Every Senate and governor race, one page each

Senate, 30

Governor, 32

2026 midterm odds: questions and answers

Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms

Vi IQ: what actually moved

The race, last 30 days

What happened

Where the money went today

What an order really pays

Most argued about

Big money

Holders this week

Movement log

Work this room

Ballot measures and maps

Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?

Which states will use new congressional maps in the midterms?

What this room holds

How chamber control has been priced

House control — last 90 days

Senate control — last 90 days

About the 2026 midterm election markets

How 2026 midterm markets resolved

Every Senate and governor race, one page each

Senate, 30

Governor, 32

2026 midterm odds: questions and answers