On Polymarket, Abdul El-Sayed (D) leads the 2026 Michigan Senate race at 70.5% against Mike Rogers (R) at 29.5%; $2.4M has traded on the race's winner market, $113K of it in the last 24 hours.
Reading the race's prints and holders from Polymarket…
What each candidate's campaign has raised in the 2025–2026 cycle and held in cash at its latest report, from the Federal Election Commission, beside what Polymarket pays for a win. Money is not votes; a large gap between the two is worth a second look.
Source: FEC all-candidates file, each campaign's authorized committees, 2025–2026 cycle, file of 24 Oct 2026. A dash means no FEC filing under that name; "registered" means the campaign has an FEC record and its first financial report is not in the file yet.
Each row is a Polymarket winner market on this seat: the outcome priced highest 30 days, 7 days and one day before Election Day, and the eventual winner's price at the same moments. The 2026 readings are taken on 4 October, 27 October and 2 November as the days arrive.
Prices are Polymarket's daily closing prices from its public price history, read at the last close before each checkpoint; outcomes that traded less than $1,000 over their life are left out, and a new market's opening 50% placeholder is not counted as a price.
