On Polymarket, Roger Marshall (R) leads the 2026 Kansas Senate race at 61% against Adam Hamilton (D) at 38.5%; $1.2M has traded on the race's winner market, $9.5K of it in the last 24 hours.
Each line is the price of one candidate on Polymarket, read as a probability. Hover or tap to read every line on the same day.
Kansas Senate Election Winner
Kansas Senate Election Winner: price 30 days ago and now
Outcome
30 days ago
Now
Roger Marshall (R)
70%
62%
Adam Hamilton (D)
31%
39%
What happened
16 sources, last read 17:17 UTC
No headline in the news store names this room's people, places or question in the last 30 days.
Headlines sit at their own time. A headline near a move is not its cause.
Big money
Prints of $5,000 and more over 7 days in the room's busiest markets, or 1% of what rested within 2¢ of the touch when that is smaller, never under $1,000. The depth is read with the book now, not the book the print met. The price 10 minutes later comes from the 10-minute history.
The biggest positions in the two leading outcomes, valued at the current price. Each wallet's first trade in the market and what it did in the last 7 days are read from its own trades on Polymarket, as of 24 Oct, 17:18 UTC. Daily archive snapshots began on 20 October 2026; the weekly tags here still come from wallet trades. A position with no trade record (a split, a merge or a transfer) carries no tag.
lomneivanYes, Roger Marshall (R)$116Kheldsince 19 Sep
lomneivanNo, Adam Hamilton (D)$84.3Kheldsince 19 Sep
0xa5ef…2966No, Adam Hamilton (D)$48.3Kno trade record
lastminwinYes, Adam Hamilton (D)$31.3Knew this weeksince 22 Oct+$2.6K this week
0xa5ef…2966No, Roger Marshall (R)$30.6Kno trade record
dromedaryyYes, Roger Marshall (R)$23.7Knew this weeksince 22 Oct+$24.0K this week
inrock30Yes, Roger Marshall (R)$21.5Kheldsince 24 Sep
What each candidate's campaign has raised in the 2025–2026 cycle and held in cash at its latest report, from the Federal Election Commission, beside what Polymarket pays for a win. Money is not votes; a large gap between the two is worth a second look.
CandidatePriceRaisedCashCash on handReport through
Source: FEC all-candidates file, each campaign's authorized committees, 2025–2026 cycle, file of 24 Oct 2026. A dash means no FEC filing under that name; "registered" means the campaign has an FEC record and its first financial report is not in the file yet.
How the favourite fared 30 days, 7 days and one day before the vote
Each row is a Polymarket winner market on this seat: the outcome priced highest 30 days, 7 days and one day before Election Day, and the eventual winner's price at the same moments. The 2026 readings are taken on 4 October, 27 October and 2 November as the days arrive.
Prices are Polymarket's daily closing prices from its public price history, read at the last close before each checkpoint; outcomes that traded less than $1,000 over their life are left out, and a new market's opening 50% placeholder is not counted as a price.
On Election Day, 3 November 2026 (10 days away), the Tuesday after the first Monday in November, with the rest of the 2026 midterms. Polymarket's market on the race stays open until the result is called.
How does the Polymarket market on this race resolve?
Polymarket's 2026 race markets resolve on the winner once the Associated Press, Fox News and NBC have all called the race for the same candidate, and on the official certification when they have not. Each market's rules, on its own page, are what count, including how it treats a replacement nominee or a runoff.
