Room attention 44, One-sided flow
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?$1.83K 24hbid 9.0%, ask 10.0%$207.95K liquidity
Taiwan Strait escalation, leadership signaling, and China-linked geopolitical markets
Latest checkNo material change across 3 monitored markets3m ago
Checks cover the monitored markets and captured inputs
Trade capture current; the latest captured trade has its own timestamp
No high-signal wallets resolved for this room yet.
Nothing here has moved by more than its normal daily swing. The prices below are where the market has settled for now.
Little change: +0.1 points on the day against a normal daily swing of 0.4. At its lowest in 30 days.
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| Outcome | 30 days ago | Now |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 4.3% | 2.3% |
| Outcome | Bid / ask | Within 2¢ | $1K pays | $10K pays |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | 2.2¢/2.3¢ | $16.4K, $6.9K | 2.4¢+0.1 | 3.7¢+1.4 |
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Last recorded read: 2026-10-24 13:33 UTC
Down 1.0 points in 24 hours, 2.5× its normal daily swing. Down 2.0 on the week. At its lowest in 30 days. Volume is 2.9× a normal day, so money came with it.
Down 1.5 points in a week, 1.4× a normal week for this contract. Volume is 2.9× a normal day, so money came with it.
Down 1.6 points in a week, 1.5× a normal week for this contract. At its lowest in 30 days. Volume is 2.3× a normal day, so money came with it.
Down 1.4 points in a week, 1.4× a normal week for this contract. At its lowest in 30 days. Volume is 2.3× a normal day, so money came with it.
Down 2.0 points in 24 hours, 5.0× its normal daily swing. At its lowest in 30 days. Volume is 2.9× a normal day, so money came with it.
Down 1.2 points in a week, 1.1× a normal week for this contract. At its lowest in 30 days.
Down 1.3 points in a week, 1.2× a normal week for this contract. 3 days running in the same direction. At its lowest in 30 days.
Up 6.2 points in a week, 2.9× a normal week for this contract. At its highest in 30 days.
Up 5.3 points in a week, 3.3× a normal week for this contract. At its highest in 30 days.
Up 11 points in a week, 2.8× a normal week for this contract. At its highest in 30 days.
Up 6.8 points in a week, 3.2× a normal week for this contract. At its highest in 30 days.
Up 5.5 points in a week, 3.5× a normal week for this contract. At its highest in 30 days.
Up 9.1 points in a week, 2.2× a normal week for this contract. At its highest in 30 days.
Up 4.5 points in a week, 2.1× a normal week for this contract. At its highest in 30 days.
Up 4.1 points in a week, 2.6× a normal week for this contract. At its highest in 30 days.
Up 5.0 points in 24 hours, 2.5× its normal daily swing. Up 9.7 on the week. At its highest in 30 days.
Up 21 points in a week, 2.3× a normal week for this contract. At its highest in 30 days.
Up 3.3 points in 24 hours, 2.2× its normal daily swing. Up 6.0 on the week. At its highest in 30 days. Volume is 2.1× a normal day, so money came with it.
Up 5.8 points in a week, 2.8× a normal week for this contract. At its highest in 30 days. Volume is 2.9× a normal day, so money came with it.
Up 4.4 points in a week, 2.7× a normal week for this contract. At its highest in 30 days. Volume is 2.9× a normal day, so money came with it.
Up 2.8 points in 24 hours, 4.7× its normal daily swing. At its highest in 30 days. Volume is 3.1× a normal day, so money came with it.
Up 19 points in a week, 2.1× a normal week for this contract. Volume is 3.2× a normal day, so money came with it.
Up 6.0 points in 24 hours, 3.0× its normal daily swing. Up 9.6 on the week. At its highest in 30 days. Volume is 3.2× a normal day, so money came with it.
Up 3.2 points in 24 hours, 4.0× its normal daily swing. Up 6.0 on the week. At its highest in 30 days. Volume is 3.2× a normal day, so money came with it.
On Polymarket, “Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?” trades at 2.3%, with $57.5K traded in the last 24 hours. Vultax links 3 markets to China–Taiwan, which traded $60.9K together over the same period. Prices as of 24 Oct 2026, 13:37 UTC.
| Market | Chance | 24h volume | Liquidity | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | 2.3% | $57.5K | $426K | 1 Jan 2027 |
| Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? | 9.5% | $1.8K | $208K | 1 Jan 2028 |
| Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027? | 5.5% | $1.5K | $101K | 1 Jul 2027 |
Price changes in probability points, measured on Polymarket’s own trade history for the room’s busiest markets. A market whose history does not reach back over a window is left out of that window rather than shown against a shorter one.
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
This room follows every Polymarket market Vultax links to the Taiwan Strait: invasion and blockade questions with fixed deadlines, military clash markets, and related US–China questions. Prices are read from the venue's public order books and trades and shown with their 24-hour volume and resting liquidity, so a thinly traded price is visible as thin.
A market price is the cost of a contract that pays $1 if the event happens, so a price of 4¢ is read as a 4% probability. Deadline markets on the same event form a curve: a later deadline should never trade below an earlier one, and a gap between them shows how much of the probability the market places in each window.
Each market resolves on its own written rules, including the deadline, the resolution source and what counts as the event. Two markets on the same subject with different wording can and do trade at different prices, so read the rules on the market page before comparing them.