Analytics
Yes is at 6.5%, down 6 points from 12.5% when the market opened on 5 Apr 2026.
Across the 187 daily closes on record from 5 Apr 2026 to 24 Oct 2026 (16 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 15.5% on 9 Apr 2026 and the lowest 5.5% on 19 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 6.5%; a month before, 8.5%.
$1.44K traded in the last 24 hours, out of $518.51K since listing. The order book holds $99.29K, with a 1.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 500 trades, $1.09K bought Yes and $28.44K bought No; the largest was a $3.76K buy of No at 94.0¢.
The largest Yes position is Imperfect-Council with 35.1K shares; the largest No position is xenonliu with 55.7K. Ten wallets hold 60.7% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jul 2027.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 24, 6:16 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 187 points, 5 Apr 2026 – 24 Oct 2026, chart shows 0%–20%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 5 Apr 2026 | 12.5% |
| 24 Oct 2026 | 6.5% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| xenonliu | No | 55.66K |
| Imperfect-Council | Yes | 35.1K |
| topsecret17 | Yes | 24.28K |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-china-invade-taiwan-by-june-30-2027
| Threadbare-Signal |
| Yes |
| 19.98K |
| BarryandLarrytradiing | Yes | 13.44K |
| comon119 | Yes | 11.98K |
| jackchen-cs | No | 11.2K |
| Ondra | Yes | 9.91K |
| Jbetour | Yes | 8.78K |
| hgamezoon | No | 8K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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