Analytics
Yes is at 9.5%, down 20 points from 29.5% when the market opened on 18 Mar 2026.
Across the 198 daily closes on record from 18 Mar 2026 to 24 Oct 2026 (23 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 29.5% on 18 Mar 2026 and the lowest 9.5% on 19 Jul 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 9.5%; a month before, 11.5%.
$2.18K traded in the last 24 hours, out of $3.54M since listing. The order book holds $187.65K, with a 1.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask.
The largest Yes position is comon119 with 198K shares; the largest No position is winforretire with 250.2K. Ten wallets hold 63.3% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2028.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 24, 5:22 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 198 points, 18 Mar 2026 – 24 Oct 2026, chart shows 0%–40%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 18 Mar 2026 | 29.5% |
| 24 Oct 2026 | 9.5% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| winforretire | No | 250.21K |
| bysittingnottrading | No | 236.47K |
| comon119 | Yes | 198.02K |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-china-invade-taiwan-by-december-31-2027
| NeH | No | 132.02K |
| TheLakeside | Yes | 124.44K |
| Threadbare-Signal | Yes | 54.28K |
| tsihkodiives | Yes | 53.05K |
| OnYesYes | Yes | 47.51K |
| J3lcExePrd1KE5M | No | 46.33K |
| SlashClam | Yes | 40K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
New to prediction markets? How to read a market page
