Analytics
Yes is at 11.5%, down 18 points from 29.5% when the market opened on 18 Mar 2026.
The high was 29.5% on 18 Mar 2026 and the low 9.5% on 19 Jul 2026. A week ago Yes was at 12.5%; a month ago, 11.5%.
$445.28 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $3.38M since listing. The order book holds $245.71K, with a 1.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 500 trades, $9.82K bought Yes and $141.08K bought No; the largest was a $30.27K buy of No at 89.0¢.
The largest Yes position is comon119 with 198K shares; the largest No position is winforretire with 247.9K. Ten wallets hold 60.5% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2028.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 5, 10:16 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB · 183 points · 18 Mar 2026 – 5 Oct 2026 · axis zoomed to 0%–40%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 18 Mar 2026 | 29.5% |
| 5 Oct 2026 | 11.5% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| winforretire | No | 247.85K |
| bysittingnottrading | No | 236.47K |
| comon119 | Yes | 198.02K |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-china-invade-taiwan-by-december-31-2027
| NeH | No | 120.96K |
| TheLakeside | Yes | 82.36K |
| Threadbare-Signal | Yes | 54.28K |
| tsihkodiives | Yes | 53.05K |
| OnYesYes | Yes | 47.51K |
| J3cExePrd1KEM | No | 46.33K |
| SlashClam | Yes | 40K |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
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