Analytics
Yes is at 4.2%, down 8.8 points from 13% when the market opened on 19 Nov 2025.
Across the 309 daily closes on record from 19 Nov 2025 to 24 Oct 2026 (31 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 16.5% on 21 Dec 2025 and the lowest 3.5% on 15 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 4.5%; a month before, 5.5%.
$60.43 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $1.42M since listing. The order book holds $74.99K, with a 0.4% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 500 trades, $1.21K bought Yes and $30.86K bought No; the largest was a $5.58K buy of No at 93.0¢.
The largest Yes position is LlamaLoco0000 with 373.3K shares; the largest No position is momom with 56.6K. Ten wallets hold 66.5% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2027, 69 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 24, 2:50 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 309 points, 19 Nov 2025 – 24 Oct 2026, chart shows 0%–20%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 19 Nov 2025 | 13.0% |
| 24 Oct 2026 | 4.2% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| LlamaLoco0000 | Yes | 373.3K |
| momom | No | 56.59K |
| Trashbag | No | 40.72K |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Japan between November 17, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Japanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not. Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Japan Coast Guard (JCG) is not. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/china-x-japan-military-clash-before-2027
| i400 |
| No |
| 39.41K |
| Serene-Decision | No | 28K |
| xcnstrategy | No | 27.16K |
| Disgusting-Coke | Yes | 24.35K |
| onekey02 | No | 23.55K |
| aenews2 | Yes | 16.61K |
| -0- | No | 15.85K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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