Analytics
Yes is at 2.3%, down 41 points from 43.5% when the market opened on 25 Jul 2025.
Across the 435 daily closes on record from 25 Jul 2025 to 24 Oct 2026 (22 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 43.5% on 25 Jul 2025 and the lowest 2.1% on 14 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 2.1%; a month before, 4%. Its largest one-day move was 22 points down, to 21.5% on 26 Jul 2025.
$42.3K traded in the last 24 hours, out of $44.74M since listing. The order book holds $421.01K, with a 0.1% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 500 trades, $869.64 bought Yes and $30.31K bought No; the largest was a $11.67K sell of No at 97.8¢.
The largest Yes position is comon119 with 1.22M shares; the largest No position is Avamax with 482.4K. Ten wallets hold 46.9% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2027, 69 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 24, 5:04 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 435 points, 25 Jul 2025 – 24 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 25 Jul 2025 | 43.5% |
| 24 Oct 2026 | 2.3% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| comon119 | Yes | 1.22M |
| Babyish-Workplace | Yes | 619.08K |
| Threadbare-Signal | Yes | 583.37K |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-china-invade-taiwan-before-2027
| Avamax | No | 482.35K |
| epicsundayfunk | Yes | 460.24K |
| Anjun | No | 458.67K |
| winforretire | No | 401.25K |
| Warlike-Horn | No | 390.34K |
| Precious-Radar-Anchovy | Yes | 351.47K |
| llh | No | 323.45K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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