Analytics
Yes is at 35.5%, up 10 points from 25.5% when the market opened on 28 Oct 2026.
Across the 5 daily closes on record from 28 Oct 2026 to 2 Nov 2026 (2 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 36.5% on 2 Nov 2026 and the lowest 18% on 29 Oct 2026. Its largest one-day move was 11 points up, to 36.5% on 2 Nov 2026.
None is the favourite of the 128 outcomes in “Which Senate Swing States will Republicans win? (Build Your Map)”, ahead of IA at 11.3%.
$3.03M traded in the last 24 hours, out of $4.39M since listing. The order book holds $1.06M, with a 1.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 500 trades, $478.28K bought Yes and $43.07K bought No; the largest was a $323.34K buy of Yes at 35.0¢.
The largest Yes position is Scaly-Tracksuit with 957.4K shares; the largest No position is Indigo Signal 2966 with 2.34M. Ten wallets hold 74.1% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 3 Nov 2026, 2 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Nov 2, 11:54 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 5 points, 28 Oct 2026 – 2 Nov 2026, chart shows 10%–50%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 28 Oct 2026 | 25.5% |
| 2 Nov 2026 | 36.5% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 2.34M |
| Scaly-Tracksuit | Yes | 957.37K |
| BreakTheBank | No | 360.08K |
This market will resolve according to which of the United States Senate general elections in Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio (special election), and Texas, currently scheduled for November 3, 2026, are won by the Republican candidate, inclusive of any potential runoffs. Each listed outcome names the exact set of these states in which the Republican candidate wins. An outcome will resolve to "Yes" only if the Republican candidate wins every state it names and does not win any of the other states covered by this market. A state counts as not won by the Republican candidate if any other candidate wins it, including a Democratic, independent, or third-party candidate, or if its results cannot be determined by March 31, 2027. A candidate will be considered to represent the Republican Party by their ballot-listed affiliation or if they are the nominee of the Republican Party. Candidates who run as independents will not be considered to represent the Republican Party regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called the relevant elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/which-tossup-senate-states-will-republicans-win-ak-ia-ks-me-mi-oh-tx
116 more outcomes, none above 1.1%.
| UnderperformingForALiving | No | 284.09K |
| RememberAmalek | Yes | 235.98K |
| HorribleWork | Yes | 218.98K |
| Fearless-Misnomer | Yes | 200.52K |
| flawfence | Yes | 197.33K |
| mr.oziVerifiedVerified Polymarket profile | Yes | 163.63K |
| jwerhor | Yes | 115.68K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
New to prediction markets? How to read a market page
