Analytics
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Profile detail last fetched just now. Trade times and chart dates show when activity occurred.
| Market | Outcome | Size | Avg price | Position value | PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | No | 292.11K | $0.298 | $235.15K | +$147.95K |
 |
This wallet's markets have not resolved into a category mix in the public profile data yet.
| Market | Side | Size | Price | Notional | When |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by October 31?Yes | sell | 213.66 | $0.440 | $94.01 | 16h ago |
 |
| Yes |
| 72.28K |
| $0.357 |
| $36.5K |
| +$10.71K |
 Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Yes | 55K | $0.500 | $27.64K | +$137.5 |
| Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | No | 55K | $0.500 | $27.36K | -$137.5 |
 Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? | Yes | 72.78K | $0.242 | $21.1K | +$3.51K |
 Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31? | Yes | 98.81K | $0.199 | $15.32K | -$4.33K |
 Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? | No | 15.29K | $0.375 | $13.38K | +$7.65K |
 Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | No | 24.36K | $0.497 | $11.57K | -$549.34 |
 Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? | Yes | 19.74K | $0.437 | $10.36K | +$1.73K |
 Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? | No | 10K | $0.910 | $9.93K | +$835 |
 Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | Yes | 20.35K | $0.344 | $9.33K | +$2.32K |
 Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? | No | 18.08K | $0.444 | $9.31K | +$1.29K |
 Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Yes | 62.97K | $0.062 | $8.34K | +$4.41K |
 Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Yes | 816.18K | $0.009 | $7.75K | +$654.02 |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? | Yes | 237.38K | $0.075 | $7.71K | -$10K |
 Will the Democrats win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Yes | 12.45K | $0.580 | $7.53K | +$311.23 |
 Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31? | Yes | 34.4K | $0.226 | $7.05K | -$708.94 |
 Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Yes | 195.83K | $0.058 | $6.76K | -$4.56K |
 Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | Yes | 12.5K | $0.508 | $6.56K | +$212.61 |
 US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026? | No | 6K | $0.648 | $5.43K | +$1.54K |
 US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026? | No | 4.95K | $0.712 | $4.72K | +$1.2K |
 US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026? | No | 6.48K | $0.295 | $4.31K | +$2.4K |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | No | 7.5K | $0.503 | $4.16K | +$387.56 |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026? | No | 8.89K | $0.183 | $3.74K | +$2.12K |
 Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027? | Yes | 29.02K | $0.124 | $3.12K | -$487.11 |
| buy |
| 2.43K |
| $0.150 |
| $364.19 |
| 16h ago |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?No | buy | 3.73K | $0.140 | $522.27 | 16h ago |
 Will Donald Trump visit North Korea in 2026?Yes | buy | 8.05K | $0.110 | $884.9 | 18h ago |
 US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?Yes | buy | 6.89K | $0.070 | $482.43 | 2d ago |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?Yes | buy | 1.84K | $0.090 | $165.47 | 2d ago |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 21, 2026?Yes | buy | 2.5K | $0.080 | $200.04 | 2d ago |
| Iran blockade lifted before Iran-Oman Hormuz agreement?No | buy | 100 | $0.770 | $77 | 2d ago |
| Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30?No | sell | 477.33 | $0.840 | $400.96 | 3d ago |
 Israel closes its airspace by September 30?Yes | buy | 3.14K | $0.500 | $1.57K | 4d ago |
| Israel closes its airspace by September 30?Yes | buy | 141.36 | $0.410 | $57.96 | 4d ago |
| Israel closes its airspace by September 30?Yes | buy | 79 | $0.400 | $31.6 | 4d ago |
| Israel closes its airspace by September 30?Yes | buy | 400 | $0.370 | $148 | 4d ago |
| Israel closes its airspace by September 30?Yes | buy | 44.77 | $0.360 | $16.12 | 4d ago |
| Israel closes its airspace by September 30?Yes | buy | 300 | $0.300 | $90 | 4d ago |
 Will Iran target Kuwait by August 31, 2026?Yes | sell | 120 | $0.001 | $0.12 | 5d ago |
| Will Donald Trump visit North Korea in 2026?Yes | buy | 100 | $0.120 | $12 | 5d ago |
| Will Donald Trump visit North Korea in 2026?Yes | buy | 100 | $0.120 | $12 | 5d ago |
 Will Trump visit North Korea by December 31?Yes | sell | 49.99 | $0.206 | $10.32 | 5d ago |
| Will there be between 25 and 29 average daily transits of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on September 30?Yes | buy | 155.5 | $0.140 | $21.77 | 6d ago |
| Will there be 40 or more average daily transits of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on September 30?No | buy | 831.12 | $0.929 | $772.37 | 6d ago |
| Will there be between 35 and 39 average daily transits of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on September 30?No | buy | 566 | $0.895 | $506.55 | 6d ago |
| Will there be between 30 and 34 average daily transits of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on September 30?No | sell | 301 | $0.860 | $258.86 | 6d ago |
| Will there be fewer than 25 average daily transits of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on September 30?Yes | buy | 515 | $0.273 | $140.34 | 6d ago |
| Will there be between 25 and 29 average daily transits of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on September 30?No | buy | 1.05K | $0.759 | $800.67 | 6d ago |
| Will there be between 30 and 34 average daily transits of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on September 30?No | buy | 1.52K | $0.752 | $1.15K | 6d ago |
 Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 NC-02 House election by 30%-35%?No | buy | 91.1 | $0.902 | $82.19 | 6d ago |
| Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 NC-02 House election by 15%-25%?No | buy | 85.1 | $0.885 | $75.31 | 6d ago |
 Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 NC-02 House election?No | buy | 20.1 | $0.952 | $19.14 | 6d ago |
 Will Democrats win exactly 5 House seats in North Carolina in the 2026 midterm elections?Yes | buy | 443.3 | $0.328 | $145.5 | 6d ago |
| Will Democrats win exactly 5 House seats in North Carolina in the 2026 midterm elections?No | buy | 212.86 | $0.697 | $148.36 | 6d ago |
| Will Democrats win exactly 3 House seats in North Carolina in the 2026 midterm elections?No | buy | 339.71 | $0.811 | $275.37 | 6d ago |
| Will Democrats win exactly 4 House seats in North Carolina in the 2026 midterm elections?No | buy | 282.42 | $0.752 | $212.42 | 6d ago |
| Will Democrats win 6 or more House seats in North Carolina in the 2026 midterm elections?Yes | buy | 416.87 | $0.154 | $64.25 | 6d ago |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?Yes | buy | 6.36K | $0.039 | $246.2 | 6d ago |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?Yes | buy | 30 | $0.170 | $5.1 | 6d ago |
 Will Nasir Idris win the 2027 Kebbi State gubernatorial election?No | buy | 166.31 | $0.150 | $24.95 | 7d ago |
| Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by October 31?Yes | buy | 1.98K | $0.100 | $198.17 | 7d ago |
| Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?Yes | sell | 1.23K | $0.142 | $174.95 | 8d ago |
| Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?Yes | buy | 4.32K | $0.126 | $545.89 | 8d ago |
 Will Iran target Qatar by August 31, 2026?No | sell | 48.91 | $0.954 | $46.64 | 8d ago |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?Yes | sell | 476.43 | $0.180 | $85.76 | 9d ago |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?Yes | sell | 20 | $0.080 | $1.6 | 9d ago |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?No | sell | 163.81 | $0.630 | $103.2 | 9d ago |
 Will Iran target Saudi Arabia by August 31, 2026?Yes | sell | 40 | $0.101 | $4.04 | 9d ago |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?No | sell | 1.68K | $0.190 | $318.89 | 9d ago |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31?No | sell | 2.71K | $0.019 | $52.13 | 9d ago |
 Will Iran target the United Arab Emirates by August 31, 2026?Yes | sell | 50.89 | $0.184 | $9.36 | 9d ago |
| Will Iran target the United Arab Emirates by August 31, 2026?Yes | sell | 128.97 | $0.200 | $25.83 | 9d ago |
| Will Iran target the United Arab Emirates by August 31, 2026?Yes | sell | 1.67 | $0.749 | $1.25 | 9d ago |