On Polymarket, David Crowley (D) leads the 2026 Wisconsin governor's race at 80.5% against Tom Tiffany (R) at 19.5%; $801K has traded on the race's winner market, $2.2K of it in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | 30 days ago | Now |
|---|---|---|
| David Crowley (D) | 85% | 81% |
| Tom Tiffany (R) | 16% | 20% |
No headline in the news store names this room's people, places or question in the last 30 days.
Headlines sit at their own time. A headline near a move is not its cause.
Vultax Research: what copying a Polymarket trade 30 seconds late costs
Vultax Research: how Polymarket trader leaderboards compare
User reads of each candidate's English Wikipedia article, 24 Sep 2026 to 23 Oct 2026 (30 days), beside “Wisconsin Governor Election Winner”. Shares are of the names listed here. A price far ahead of attention is a reason to look closer, not evidence of anything on its own.
Source: Wikimedia pageviews, user reads of each English Wikipedia article, read 24 Oct 2026
Each row is a Polymarket winner market on this seat: the outcome priced highest 30 days, 7 days and one day before Election Day, and the eventual winner's price at the same moments. The 2026 readings are taken on 4 October, 27 October and 2 November as the days arrive.
Prices are Polymarket's daily closing prices from its public price history, read at the last close before each checkpoint; outcomes that traded less than $1,000 over their life are left out, and a new market's opening 50% placeholder is not counted as a price.
2022: Polymarket priced this seat in “Governor: Will a Democrat (Evers) or Republican (Michels) win in Wisconsin?”, which resolved Democrat on $28.4K traded. It ran on Polymarket's earlier automated market maker, whose prices the public price history does not include, so it carries a result and no checkpoints.
