On Polymarket, Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins leads the 2026 Alaska governor's race at 85.8% against Bernadette Wilson at 13%; $1.7M has traded on the race's winner market, $2.9K of it in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | 30 days ago | Now |
|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins | 77% | 86% |
| Bernadette Wilson | 19% | 13% |
No headline in the news store names this room's people, places or question in the last 30 days.
Headlines sit at their own time. A headline near a move is not its cause.
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User reads of each candidate's English Wikipedia article, 24 Sep 2026 to 23 Oct 2026 (30 days), beside “Alaska Governor Election Winner”. Shares are of the names listed here. A price far ahead of attention is a reason to look closer, not evidence of anything on its own.
Source: Wikimedia pageviews, user reads of each English Wikipedia article, read 24 Oct 2026
Each row is a Polymarket winner market on this seat: the outcome priced highest 30 days, 7 days and one day before Election Day, and the eventual winner's price at the same moments. The 2026 readings are taken on 4 October, 27 October and 2 November as the days arrive.
Prices are Polymarket's daily closing prices from its public price history, read at the last close before each checkpoint; outcomes that traded less than $1,000 over their life are left out, and a new market's opening 50% placeholder is not counted as a price.
2022: Polymarket priced this seat in “Governor: Will a Democrat (Gara) or Republican (Dunleavy) win in Alaska?”, which resolved Republican on $1K traded. It ran on Polymarket's earlier automated market maker, whose prices the public price history does not include, so it carries a result and no checkpoints.
