Analytics
Yes is at 91.5%, up 27 points from 65% when the market opened on 14 Oct 2025.
Across the 354 daily closes on record from 14 Oct 2025 to 24 Oct 2026 (22 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 94.5% on 21 Aug 2026 and the lowest 65% on 14 Oct 2025. A week before that last close Yes was at 90.5%; a month before, 91.5%. Its largest one-day move was 25 points up, to 89.5% on 15 Oct 2025.
Ashley Moody (R) is the favourite of the 2 outcomes in “Florida Senate Election Winner”, ahead of Angie Nixon (D) at 9%.
$282.67 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $164.76K since listing. The order book holds $133.93K, with a 1.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 500 trades, $83.79K bought Yes and $2.52K bought No; the largest was a $22.75K buy of Yes at 91.0¢.
The largest Yes position is burrito338 with 25K shares; the largest No position is lastminwin with 30K. Ten wallets hold 65.9% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 4 Nov 2026, 11 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 24, 9:06 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 354 points, 14 Oct 2025 – 24 Oct 2026, chart shows 50%–100%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 14 Oct 2025 | 65.0% |
| 24 Oct 2026 | 91.5% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| lastminwin | No | 30K |
| burrito338 | Yes | 25K |
| lug | No | 15.74K |
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Florida U.S. Senate special election currently scheduled for November 3, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/florida-senate-election-winner
| inrock30 |
| Yes |
| 15K |
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 14.26K |
| SAPolitcsSeer | Yes | 12.44K |
| SirHarryOakes | Yes | 10.95K |
| JishWa | Yes | 8K |
| ydxistheking | Yes | 7.27K |
| mombil | No | 6.36K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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