Analytics
Yes is at 78.5%, up 29 points from 49.5% when the market opened on 7 Jul 2026.
Across the 107 daily closes on record from 7 Jul 2026 to 2 Nov 2026 (13 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 78.5% on 2 Nov 2026 and the lowest 24.5% on 12 Jul 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 67.5%; a month before, 57%. Its largest one-day move was 16 points up, to 49.5% on 6 Sep 2026.
Doris Matsui is the favourite of the 2 outcomes in “CA-07 House Election Winner (by individual)”, ahead of Mai Vang at 21.5%.
$11.37K traded in the last 24 hours, out of $26.04K since listing. The order book holds $34.56K, with a 1.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 481 trades, $8.44K bought Yes and $2.43K bought No; the largest was a $2.37K buy of Yes at 66.9¢.
The largest Yes position is seal7 with 2.9K shares; the largest No position is Indigo Signal 2966 with 3.6K. Ten wallets hold 80.4% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 4 Nov 2026, 2 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Nov 2, 11:58 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 107 points, 7 Jul 2026 – 2 Nov 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 7 Jul 2026 | 49.5% |
| 2 Nov 2026 | 78.5% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 3.59K |
| 74-75 | No | 3.2K |
| seal7 | Yes | 2.94K |
This market will resolve according to the individual who wins the CA-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/ca-07-house-election-winner-by-individual-20260706153650362
| twinna |
| Yes |
| 2.49K |
| LSDenjoyer | Yes | 1.61K |
| Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed | No | 1.4K |
| Prickly-Eyrie | Yes | 1.22K |
| Nicksypoo | No | 1.16K |
| macrosteaks | Yes | 724.96 |
| rocky42009 | No | 692.71 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
New to prediction markets? How to read a market page
