Analytics
For Texas — Talarico (D), Vultax simulated buys of Yes against Polymarket's order book. These results describe the books captured during the study. Check today's quotes and the market's resolution rules separately.
58 readings, every 30 minutes, 12 September 18:51 to 13 September 23:21 UTC. Up to 20 price levels. Cost is the median average fill price minus midpoint, in cents per share, only over readings with a full fill. Fees and other traders' reactions are excluded. Percentages are rounded; these were simulations, not executed orders. A failed fill within the captured levels does not prove the entire book lacked depth. Polymarket observations are from its international exchange.
Yes is at 62.5%, up 13 points from 49.5% when the market opened on 14 Oct 2025.
Across the 350 daily closes on record from 14 Oct 2025 to 24 Oct 2026 (27 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 66.5% on 23 Oct 2026 and the lowest 18% on 19 Oct 2025. A week before that last close Yes was at 62.5%; a month before, 62.5%. Its largest one-day move was 31 points down, to 18.5% on 15 Oct 2025.
James Talarico (D) is the favourite of the 2 outcomes in “Texas Senate Election Winner”, ahead of Ken Paxton (R) at 36.5%.
$130.97K traded in the last 24 hours, out of $2.48M since listing. The order book holds $399.05K, with a 1.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 500 trades, $24.92K bought Yes and $26.59K bought No; the largest was a $23.85K sell of Yes at 65.0¢.
The largest Yes position is tourists with 74K shares; the largest No position is Indigo Signal 2966 with 477.4K. Ten wallets hold 44.5% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 4 Nov 2026, 11 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 24, 6:36 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 350 points, 14 Oct 2025 – 24 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 14 Oct 2025 | 49.5% |
| 24 Oct 2026 | 62.5% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 477.39K |
| botbot | No | 223.15K |
| tmoneeey | No | 211.9K |
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Texas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/texas-senate-election-winner
| tourists |
| Yes |
| 73.96K |
| neutralwave23 | No | 61.75K |
| defillama7 | Yes | 61.39K |
| mr.oziVerifiedVerified Polymarket profile | Yes | 60K |
| Quiet Harbor 8492 | No | 52.58K |
| lastminwin | Yes | 51.59K |
| WordleAddict | Yes | 50.02K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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