On Polymarket, Josh Green (D) leads the 2026 Hawaii governor's race at 98.6% against Gary Cordery (R) at 1.3%; $30.3K has traded on the race's winner market, $1.2K of it in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | 30 days ago | Now |
|---|---|---|
| Josh Green (D) | 98% | 99% |
| Gary Cordery (R) | 1.6% | <1% |
No headline in the news store names this room's people, places or question in the last 30 days.
Headlines sit at their own time. A headline near a move is not its cause.
No print cleared the floor in the last 7 days.
Vultax Research: what copying a Polymarket trade 30 seconds late costs
Vultax Research: how Polymarket trader leaderboards compare
Each row is a Polymarket winner market on this seat: the outcome priced highest 30 days, 7 days and one day before Election Day, and the eventual winner's price at the same moments. The 2026 readings are taken on 4 October, 27 October and 2 November as the days arrive.
Prices are Polymarket's daily closing prices from its public price history, read at the last close before each checkpoint; outcomes that traded less than $1,000 over their life are left out, and a new market's opening 50% placeholder is not counted as a price.
