Analytics
For Maine — Jackson (D), Vultax simulated buys of Yes against Polymarket's order book. These results describe the books captured during the study. Check today's quotes and the market's resolution rules separately.
58 readings, every 30 minutes, 12 September 18:51 to 13 September 23:21 UTC. Up to 20 price levels. Cost is the median average fill price minus midpoint, in cents per share, only over readings with a full fill. Fees and other traders' reactions are excluded. Percentages are rounded; these were simulations, not executed orders. A failed fill within the captured levels does not prove the entire book lacked depth. Polymarket observations are from its international exchange.
Yes is at 65%, up 12 points from 53% when the market opened on 14 Oct 2025.
Across the 354 daily closes on record from 14 Oct 2025 to 24 Oct 2026 (23 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 79% on 12 May 2026 and the lowest 51.5% on 5 Jun 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 59.5%; a month before, 73.5%. Its largest one-day move was 9.5 points up, to 67.5% on 6 Nov 2025.
Troy Jackson (D) is the favourite of the 2 outcomes in “Maine Senate Election Winner”, ahead of Susan Collins (R) at 35.5%.
$17.81K traded in the last 24 hours, out of $1.36M since listing. The order book holds $199.2K, with a 2.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 500 trades, $25.24K bought Yes and $20.08K bought No; the largest was a $4.8K buy of Yes at 64.0¢.
The largest Yes position is SlavaUkraini with 78.5K shares; the largest No position is Indigo Signal 2966 with 166K. Ten wallets hold 51.6% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 4 Nov 2026, 11 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 24, 6:36 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 354 points, 14 Oct 2025 – 24 Oct 2026, chart shows 40%–90%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 14 Oct 2025 | 53.0% |
| 24 Oct 2026 | 64.5% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 166.04K |
| SlavaUkraini | Yes | 78.51K |
| 0xfcb034ffesa540c81ad37321212f6e0c762feac8 | Yes | 65K |
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Maine U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/maine-senate-election-winner
| coali10 | Yes | 57.14K |
| 11122 | No | 54.58K |
| lastminwin | Yes | 47.51K |
| skibabiba | Yes | 30K |
| cowcat | No | 26.23K |
| Emerald Pioneer B836 | Yes | 23.48K |
| PEYZ-BIGGEST-FAN | Yes | 20K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
New to prediction markets? How to read a market page
