Analytics
Yes is at 39%, down 9 points from 48% when the market opened on 13 Nov 2025.
Across the 347 daily closes on record from 13 Nov 2025 to 28 Oct 2026 (4 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 91.5% on 22 Jan 2026 and the lowest 5% on 7 Sep 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 47.2%; a month before, 20.8%. Its largest one-day move was 37 points down, to 25.5% on 9 Jul 2026.
>2.5% ranks second of the 6 outcomes in “GDP growth in 2026”. 2.0–2.5% leads at 56%; 1.5–2.0% is at 2%.
$25.38K traded in the last 24 hours. The order book holds $980.31, with a 20.4% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 500 trades, $1.88K bought Yes and $2.5K bought No.
The largest Yes position is Rickson83 with 1.3K shares; the largest No position is Indigo Signal 2966 with 3.1K. Ten wallets hold 80.1% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 29 Jan 2027, 93 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 28, 7:28 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 347 points, 13 Nov 2025 – 28 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 13 Nov 2025 | 48.0% |
| 28 Oct 2026 | 39.0% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 3.06K |
| Rickson83 | Yes | 1.28K |
| Musk5 | Yes | 754.15 |
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/gdp-growth-in-2026
| Busdriver23 |
| Yes |
| 297.02 |
| JohnP92 | Yes | 240 |
| 387411007415611814092217897387 | Yes | 223.55 |
| rocky42017 | No | 215.21 |
| SnapElectionAvoider | Yes | 201.76 |
| kAmweijR | Yes | 200 |
| Quiet Meteor 2709 | No | 200 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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