Analytics
Will Core PCE YoY be 3.1% in October?
economyActive
Closes Nov 25, 2026 UTC
Yes
6.3%
No
93.8%
Yes costs 6.25¢No costs 93.75¢
24h Volume
$3.4K
Total volume
$3.4K
Liquidity
$2.9K
Closes
Nov 25, 2026 UTC
Topic roomUS Economy
Where it stands
Yes is at 6.3%, down 22 points from 28.5% when the market opened on 30 Oct 2026.
Across the 17 daily closes on record from 30 Oct 2026 to 14 Nov 2026, the highest close was 47% on 31 Oct 2026 and the lowest 3.5% on 12 Nov 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 13%. Its largest one-day move was 19 points up, to 47% on 31 Oct 2026.
3.1% ranks third of the 7 outcomes in “Core PCE YoY - October 2026”. 3.2% leads at 61.5%; 3.3% is at 30%.
The best bid and the best ask are 9.5% apart, so read the price as a range. Across the latest 89 trades, $257.09 bought Yes and $1.29K bought No.
Ten wallets hold 89.7% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 25 Nov 2026, 11 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Nov 14, 10:09 PM UTC
Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 17 points, 30 Oct 2026 – 14 Nov 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 30 Oct 2026 | 28.5% |
| 14 Nov 2026 | 5.8% |
All outcomes
Core PCE YoY - October 2026
- 13.2%$14.13K traded61.5%
- 23.3%$8.31K traded30.0%
- 33.1%This market
Largest holders
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| SnapElectionAvoider | Yes | 1.02K |
| pieped | No | 1K |
| Rapid-Alphabet-Winner | No | 645.43 |
Rules
What settles this market
Polymarket settles this market on the source its rules name. Sources named in the rules: bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index, bea.gov/news/schedule. Trading closes on 25 Nov 2026.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/core-pce-yoy-october-2026
Topic room
Read this market in context
What to watch in US Economy
- Each release in turn: the jobs report on the first Friday of the month, CPI a week or two later, GDP a month after each quarter ends
- Energy and shelter prices, the two parts of CPI that move the monthly print most
- Weekly jobless claims between reports