Analytics
US recession by end of 2026?
economyActive
Closes Jan 31, 2027 UTC
Yes
2.3%
No
97.8%
Yes costs 2.25¢No costs 97.75¢
24h Volume
$916
Total volume
$2.5M
Liquidity
$153.1K
Closes
Jan 31, 2027 UTC
Topic roomUS Economy
Where it stands
Yes is at 2.3%, down 42 points from 44% when the market opened on 30 Sep 2025.
Across the 379 daily closes on record from 30 Sep 2025 to 14 Nov 2026 (33 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 46.5% on 1 Oct 2025 and the lowest 2.3% on 12 Nov 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 4.5%; a month before, 7.5%. Its largest one-day move was 9 points down, to 37.5% on 2 Oct 2025.
Across the latest 500 trades, $274.19 bought Yes and $104.85K bought No; the largest was a $16.12K sell of No at 97.7¢.
Ten wallets hold 57.1% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 31 Jan 2027, 78 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Nov 14, 10:05 PM UTC
Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 379 points, 30 Sep 2025 – 14 Nov 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 30 Sep 2025 | 44.0% |
| 14 Nov 2026 | 2.3% |
Largest holders
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Swift Maven 1848 | Yes | 409.67K |
| XVFlow | Yes | 69.29K |
| Cheerful-Ephemera | No | 40.44K |
Rules
What settles this market
Polymarket settles this market on the source its rules name. Sources named in the rules: bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product. Trading closes on 31 Jan 2027.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/us-recession-by-end-of-2026
Dates
Topic room
Read this market in context
What to watch in US Economy
- Each release in turn: the jobs report on the first Friday of the month, CPI a week or two later, GDP a month after each quarter ends
- Energy and shelter prices, the two parts of CPI that move the monthly print most
- Weekly jobless claims between reports