Analytics
Yes is at 7.5%, down 37 points from 44% when the market opened on 30 Sep 2025.
Across the 364 daily closes on record from 30 Sep 2025 to 28 Oct 2026 (30 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 46.5% on 1 Oct 2025 and the lowest 6.5% on 5 Sep 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 6.5%; a month before, 8.5%. Its largest one-day move was 9 points down, to 37.5% on 2 Oct 2025.
$5.61K traded in the last 24 hours, out of $2.38M since listing. The order book holds $67.65K, with a 1.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 500 trades, $11.05K bought Yes and $105.02K bought No; the largest was a $10.33K sell of No at 92.0¢.
The largest Yes position is Swift Maven 1848 with 405.9K shares; the largest No position is tetrase with 40.4K. Ten wallets hold 56.6% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 31 Jan 2027, 95 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 28, 5:26 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 364 points, 30 Sep 2025 – 28 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 30 Sep 2025 | 44.0% |
| 28 Oct 2026 | 7.5% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Swift Maven 1848 | Yes | 405.88K |
| XVFlow | Yes | 69.29K |
| tetrase | No | 40.44K |
This market will resolve to “Yes” if either of the following conditions is met: 1. The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2026 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). 2. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point during 2025 or 2026, with the announcement made by the time the BEA releases the advance estimate for Q4 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Note that advance estimates will be considered. For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q3 2025 was negative, and the Q2 2025's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes". If on December 31, 2026 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2025 was negative, this market will stay open until the Advance estimate of Q4 2026 is published, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2026 was negative or if the NBER declares a recession by then. This market will remain open until either i) one of the specified conditions is met; or ii) the GDP advance estimate for Q4 2026 is released. If the GDP advance estimate for Q4 2026 has not been released by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the available releases at that time. The resolution source will be the official announcements from the NBER and the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/us-recession-by-end-of-2026
| pmcb |
| No |
| 25.9K |
| MaxPowell | No | 24.43K |
| baran-ludoman | No | 24.06K |
| allen111 | No | 23.75K |
| Quiet Meteor 2709 | No | 23.26K |
| TBill1 | No | 21.8K |
| QMG-CORE | No | 21.44K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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