Analytics
Yes is at 64%, up 31 points from 33% when the market opened on 15 Sep 2026.
Across the 42 daily closes on record from 15 Sep 2026 to 28 Oct 2026 (3 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 83.5% on 17 Oct 2026 and the lowest 33% on 15 Sep 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 81.5%; a month before, 65.5%. Its largest one-day move was 24 points up, to 57.5% on 16 Sep 2026.
25 bps increase is the favourite of the 5 outcomes in “ECB Interest Rates: December 2026”, ahead of No change at 31.5%.
$229.9 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $20.57K since listing. The order book holds $1.22K, with a 2.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 337 trades, $6.19K bought Yes and $1.78K bought No; the largest was a $1.1K buy of Yes at 58.1¢.
The largest Yes position is firegold with 2.1K shares; the largest No position is Indigo Signal 2966 with 3.4K. Ten wallets hold 78.5% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 17 Dec 2026, 50 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 28, 11:28 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 42 points, 15 Sep 2026 – 28 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 15 Sep 2026 | 33.0% |
| 28 Oct 2026 | 64.0% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 3.42K |
| firegold | Yes | 2.12K |
| AiBird | No | 926.35 |
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the deposit facility rate resulting from the December 2026 meeting of the European Central Bank, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source will be official information from the European Central Bank, including the statement or release from its December 2026 meeting, scheduled for December 16-17, 2026, as listed on the official European Central Bank calendar (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the European Central Bank's December 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound. If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size. If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/ecb-interest-rates-december-2026
| exothetajunkie |
| Yes |
| 623.41 |
| alpha.chen | Yes | 535.7 |
| TheWindKnowsmyName | No | 460.3 |
| Swift Maven 1848 | No | 430.15 |
| cleanapproach | Yes | 380 |
| cigarettes | No | 360.6 |
| ChrissyTC | Yes | 330.42 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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