When does an IPO market settle?

On the first day the company's shares trade on a public exchange, as the market's rules state. A filing, a reported bank mandate or an announced date moves the price but does not settle it.

What does the closing market cap market measure?

The company's market value at the close of its first trading day: the closing share price times the shares outstanding, from the source the rules name. It is not the IPO price set the night before.

Why do the date markets for one company differ?

Each deadline is its own question. A company can be likely to list within two years and unlikely to list within six months, so the ladder of dates reads as a timeline of when traders expect the listing.

Is this a forecast by Vultax?

No. The room shows what traders pay on Polymarket, with the volume and resting depth beside each price. It is research context, not a prediction or a recommendation.

IPO Odds: Anthropic, OpenAI and More

328 markets

Polymarket read 27 Oct 2026, 18:36 UTC

IPOs, the market's forecast

Anthropic IPO by __?

November 19, 202652.0%

This market closes

1 Jan 2027

Traded, 24h

$83.6K

in this market

Traded, all time

$5.9M

$222K resting now

All related markets, 24h

$296K

328 markets across 50 events

Comments

on Polymarket

Try it on paper

December 31, 2026Yes94¢No6.5¢
December 15, 2026Yes92¢No8.5¢
November 30, 2026Yes89¢No12¢
November 25, 2026Yes84¢No16¢
November 23, 2026Yes72¢No28¢
November 24, 2026Yes72¢No28¢
November 20, 2026Yes68¢No32¢
November 19, 2026Yes52¢No48¢

Vi IQ: what actually moved

Each outcome is measured against its own normal daily swing over 30 days

December 15, 2026: Up 16 points in a week, 3.0× a normal week for this contract. 3 other outcomes moved by more than noise.

December 15, 202692%63Notable
Steady climb24h −2.07d +16.0normal day ±2.0
Up 16 points in a week, 3.0× a normal week for this contract.
November 30, 202689%58Notable
Steady climb24h −3.07d +29.0normal day ±4.0
Up 29 points in a week, 2.7× a normal week for this contract.
December 31, 202694%58Notable
Steady climb24h −1.07d +16.0normal day ±2.0
Up 16 points in a week, 3.0× a normal week for this contract.
November 25, 202685%56Notable
Steady climb24h −2.07d +34.5normal day ±4.5
Up 35 points in a week, 2.9× a normal week for this contract.

Research is free. Create a free account to save room watches and use your Vi allowance.

How the odds moved, last 30 days

Anthropic IPO by __?

Anthropic IPO by __?: price 30 days ago, or on the first full day of trading for a name listed since, and now
Outcome	30 days ago, or first full day	Now
December 31, 2026	76%	94%
December 15, 2026	73%	92%
November 30, 2026	59%	89%
November 25, 2026	50% on 24 Oct, its first full day (listed 23 Oct)	85%

Where the money went today

$296K across 50 events

What an order really pays

Order book depth and the average price a $1,000 and a $10,000 buy order would pay
Outcome	Bid / ask	Within 2¢	$1K pays	$10K pays
December 31, 2026	93¢/94¢	$10.1K, $7.2K	94¢+0.0	96¢+1.7
December 15, 2026	91¢/92¢	$3.4K, $6.6K	92¢+0.3	94¢+2.0
November 30, 2026	88¢/89¢	$3.6K, $3.1K	90¢+1.2	92¢+3.1
November 25, 2026	83¢/85¢	$993, $2.1K	86¢+1.0	92¢+6.5
November 23, 2026	71¢/73¢	$689, $1.1K	74¢+0.9	77¢fills $1.8K

Most argued about

Anthropic IPO by __?59 comments$83.6K 24h
Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?53 comments$7.1K 24h
Kraken IPO by ___ ?52 comments$206 24h
What will Anthropic's public ticker be?48 comments$23.0K 24h

The largest positions

0x91c3…409fYes, December 31, 2026$30.2K
thoodrYes, December 31, 2026$20.4K
Erasmus.Yes, December 31, 2026$19.4K
TheReturnOfDarthMaulYes, December 31, 2026$18.7K
aenews2Yes, December 31, 2026$14.4K
mewmew1Yes, December 31, 2026$12.5K
TheReturnOfDarthMaulYes, December 15, 2026$10.9K
Ume-ChangYes, December 15, 2026$7.2K
betwickYes, December 15, 2026$5.2K
FulguratorYes, December 15, 2026$3.5K

Vultax Research: how Polymarket trader leaderboards compare

Large trades

Sold No at 80¢Will OpenAI's IPO valuation be between $1.5T and $1.75T?$1.4KCb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c59
Sold Yes at 90¢Will Anthropic IPO by December 15, 2026?$1.9Ksuraxy
Bought No at 82¢Will OpenAI's IPO valuation be between $1.5T and $1.75T?$1.6KCb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c59
Bought No at 78¢Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.25T at market close on IPO day?$1.0KCb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c59
Sold No at 81¢Will OpenAI's IPO valuation be between $1.25T and $1.5T?$1.3KCb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c59
Bought Yes at 95¢Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?$2.5Kbabymario141
Bought Yes at 30¢Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.75T and $2.0T at market close on IPO day?$1.5KLiquidatedDegen
Bought Yes at 92¢Will Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026?$1.0Kkefirsky
Bought No at 95¢Will Anthropic's market cap be less than $1.25T at market close on IPO day?$1.6Kyoyobb2018
Bought No at 71¢Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.75T and $2.0T at market close on IPO day?$1.4KCb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c59
Bought Yes at 95¢Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?$2.2KGlaring-Composition
Bought Yes at 94¢Will Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026?$2.0Kallentang

Vultax Research: what copying a Polymarket trade 30 seconds late costs

Movement log

Last recorded read: 2026-10-27 18:34 UTC

December 31, 202694%27 Oct, 14:34 UTC
Up 16 points in a week, 3.0× a normal week for this contract.
December 15, 202692%27 Oct, 14:34 UTC
Up 15 points in a week, 2.8× a normal week for this contract.
November 25, 202683%27 Oct, 14:34 UTC
Up 33 points in a week, 2.8× a normal week for this contract.
November 30, 202689%27 Oct, 14:34 UTC
Up 28 points in a week, 2.6× a normal week for this contract.

Work this room

Which big companies will IPO, and when?

On Polymarket, “Anthropic IPO by __?” has December 31, 2026 in front at 94%, on $83.6K traded across that market in the last 24 hours. This room reads 328 open markets across 50 Polymarket events, which together traded $296K over the same 24 hours and hold $2.7M of resting liquidity. Prices as of 27 Oct 2026, 18:36 UTC.

Who lists, and when

13 markets, $89.3K traded in 24h

Anthropic IPO by __?

$83.6K 24h, $222K liquidity, closes 1 Jan 2027

Anthropic IPO by __?: priced outcomes, most likely first
Outcome	Chance	24h	7d	24h volume	Liquidity	Closes	Paper trade
December 31, 2026	94%	—	—	$6.6K	$38.5K

Value at listing

25 markets, $155K traded in 24h

Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap

$80.5K 24h, $226K liquidity, closes 1 Jan 2028

Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap: priced outcomes, most likely first
Outcome	Chance	24h	7d	24h volume	Liquidity	Closes	Paper trade
$1.75–$2.0T	34%	—	—	$6.2K

Listing details

10 markets, $46.6K traded in 24h

What will Anthropic's public ticker be?

$23.0K 24h, $82.2K liquidity, closes 1 Jan 2028

What will Anthropic's public ticker be?: priced outcomes, most likely first
Outcome	Chance	24h	7d	24h volume	Liquidity	Closes	Paper trade
$ANT	98%	—	—	$6.7K

What moved

Over 24 hours

$1.50–$1.75TWhat will Anthropic's IPO valuation be?56%+20$1.4K
$1.5T–$1.75TWhat will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?17%−4.2$22.8K
AnthropicLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?

How IPOs markets resolved

IPOs: recently resolved markets
Market	Resolved as	Total volume	Settled
Shein IPO Closing Market Cap Above __?	↑ 200B HKD	$73.3K	1 Sep 2026
SpaceX IPO: Who will be on-stage at the Bell Ceremony?	Gwynne Shotwell	$372K	15 Aug 2026
SpaceX Closing Market Cap End of July	$1.0T-$1.5T	$33.3K	1 Aug 2026
Safepoint IPO Closing Market Cap	No IPO before August 2026	$78.7K

Moves and what was reported or dated near them

The IPOs room has no sourced event timeline to set its moves beside, so the cause of each move is unconfirmed.

About the IPOs prediction markets

This room reads Polymarket's markets on initial public offerings and sorts them into who lists and when, the value at listing, and the details of the listing: exchange, ticker, lead bank and index entry. Each price carries its 24-hour volume and resting liquidity.

The largest questions are about AI companies: whether Anthropic and OpenAI go public, which goes first and what each is worth at the first day's close. A listing date market settles on the day trading starts, not on the day a company files, so a filing moves the price without settling it.

What moves these markets

Confidential and public filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission
Private funding rounds and tender offers, which set the reference valuation
The state of the stock market and of recent listings in the same sector
Bank mandates and exchange choice, often reported weeks before a filing
Regulation of crypto companies, for the exchange listings

Questions

IPOs prediction markets: questions and answers

Which big companies will IPO, and when?: In the busiest market Vultax links to this question, “Anthropic IPO by __?”, December 31, 2026 leads at 94% on Polymarket as of 27 Oct 2026, 18:36 UTC. A price is the cost of a contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens, so it reads as a probability. It moves with every trade; the boards on this page list the other priced outcomes with their 24-hour volume, liquidity and close date.
When does an IPO market settle?: On the first day the company's shares trade on a public exchange, as the market's rules state. A filing, a reported bank mandate or an announced date moves the price but does not settle it.
What does the closing market cap market measure?: The company's market value at the close of its first trading day: the closing share price times the shares outstanding, from the source the rules name. It is not the IPO price set the night before.
Why do the date markets for one company differ?: Each deadline is its own question. A company can be likely to list within two years and unlikely to list within six months, so the ladder of dates reads as a timeline of when traders expect the listing.
Is this a forecast by Vultax?: No. The room shows what traders pay on Polymarket, with the volume and resting depth beside each price. It is research context, not a prediction or a recommendation.

Outcome	Chance	24h	7d	24h volume	Liquidity	Closes	Paper trade
November 2026	88%	—	—	$1.4K	$11.4K	1 Jan 2028	Yes88¢No12¢
December 2026	5.8%	—	—	$765	$11.1K	1 Jan 2028	Yes5.8¢No94¢
January 2027	2.5%	—	—	$171	$4.7K	1 Jan 2028	Yes2.5¢No98¢
April 2027	<1%	—	—	$338	$4.2K	1 Jan 2028	Yes0.7¢No99.3¢
May 2027	<1%	—	—	$150	$4.1K	1 Jan 2028	Yes0.55¢No99.45¢
March 2027	<1%	—	—	$71	$4.2K	1 Jan 2028	Yes0.55¢No99.45¢
February 2027	<1%	—	—	$50	$4.4K	1 Jan 2028	Yes0.4¢No99.6¢
October 2026	<1%	—	—	$129	$4.2K	1 Jan 2028	Yes0.3¢No99.7¢

Outcome	Chance	24h	7d	24h volume	Liquidity	Closes	Paper trade
December 31, 2027	39%	—	—	$0	$383	1 Jan 2028	Yes39¢No62¢
September 30, 2027	19%	—	—	$0	$304	1 Oct 2027	Yes19¢No81¢
March 31, 2027	14%	—	—	$163	$178	1 Apr 2027	Yes14¢No87¢
June 30, 2027	14%	—	—	$0	$198	1 Jul 2027	Yes14¢No87¢
December 31, 2026	3.4%	—	—	$0	$146	1 Jan 2027	Yes3.4¢No97¢

Outcome	Chance	24h	7d	24h volume	Liquidity	Closes	Paper trade
SpaceX	57%	—	—	$6.0K	$14.4K	2 Jan 2027	Yes57¢No43¢
Anthropic	39%	—	—	$1.1K	$24.5K	2 Jan 2027	Yes39¢No61¢
OpenAI	<1%	—	—	$66	$77.6K	31 Dec 2026	Yes0.45¢No99.55¢
ByteDance	<1%	—	—	$0	$32.4K	31 Dec 2026	Yes0.05¢No99.95¢
Stripe	<1%	—	—	$0	$38.1K	31 Dec 2026	Yes0.05¢No99.95¢
Databricks	<1%	—	—	$0	$47.4K	31 Dec 2026	Yes0.05¢No99.95¢
SHEIN	<1%	—	—	$0	$36.2K	2 Jan 2027	Yes0.05¢No99.95¢
Waymo	<1%	—	—	$0	$64.4K	31 Dec 2026	Yes0.05¢No99.95¢
Revolut	<1%	—	—	$0	$62.3K	31 Dec 2026	Yes0.05¢No99.95¢
Discord	<1%	—	—	$0	$69.0K	2 Jan 2027	Yes0.05¢No99.95¢

Outcome	Chance	24h	7d	24h volume	Liquidity	Closes	Paper trade
June 30, 2027	41%	—	—	$0	$19.0K	1 Jul 2027	Yes41¢No60¢
March 31, 2027	21%	—	—	$10	$17.5K	1 Apr 2027	Yes21¢No80¢
December 31, 2026	3.5%	—	—	$1.0K	$36.3K	1 Jan 2027	Yes3.5¢No97¢

Outcome	Chance	24h	7d	24h volume	Liquidity	Closes	Paper trade
Anthropic	97%	—	—	$635	$60.3K	1 Jan 2028	Buy97¢
OpenAI	3.5%	—	—	$635	$60.3K	1 Jan 2028	Buy3.5¢

Outcome	Chance	24h	7d	24h volume	Liquidity	Closes	Paper trade
December 31, 2027	65%	—	—	$101	$2.1K	1 Jan 2028	Yes65¢No35¢
September 30, 2027	56%	—	—	$20	$525	1 Oct 2027	Yes56¢No44¢
June 30, 2027	41%	—	—	$5	$869	1 Jul 2027	Yes41¢No60¢
March 31, 2027	19%	—	—	$10	$982	1 Apr 2027	Yes19¢No82¢
December 31, 2026	4.8%	—	—	$5	$5.1K	1 Jan 2027	Yes4.8¢No95¢

Outcome	Chance	24h	7d	24h volume	Liquidity	Closes	Paper trade
<$1T	30%	—	—	$2.4K	$6.3K	1 Jan 2028	Yes30¢No70¢
$1.25T–$1.5T	19%	—	—	$12.5K	$9.0K	1 Jan 2028	Yes19¢No81¢
$1.5T–$1.75T	17%	—	—	$22.8K	$8.7K	1 Jan 2028	Yes17¢No83¢
$1.75T–$2.0T	16%	—	—	$0	$9.9K	1 Jan 2028	Yes16¢No85¢
$1.0T–$1.25T	9.1%	—	—	$9.5K	$7.9K	1 Jul 2027	Yes9.1¢No91¢
$2.0T–$2.25T	7.1%	—	—	$0	$6.4K	1 Jan 2028	Yes7.1¢No93¢
$2.25T–$2.5T	5.1%	—	—	$10	$8.2K	1 Jan 2028	Yes5.1¢No95¢
$2.5T+	3.8%	—	—	$0	$4.9K	1 Jan 2028	Yes3.8¢No96¢

Outcome	Chance	24h	7d	24h volume	Liquidity	Closes	Paper trade
$1.50–$1.75T	56%	—	—	$1.4K	$6.8K	1 Jan 2028	Yes56¢No44¢
$1.75–$2.00T	30%	—	—	$108	$3.3K	1 Jan 2028	Yes30¢No71¢
$1.25–$1.50T	6.4%	—	—	$2.4K	$3.8K	1 Jan 2028	Yes6.4¢No94¢
$2.00–$2.25T	3.6%	—	—	$849	$3.5K	1 Jan 2028	Yes3.6¢No96¢
No IPO by December 31, 2027	1.4%	—	—	$0	$1.8K	1 Jan 2028	Yes1.4¢No99¢
$2.25–$2.50T	1.3%	—	—	$51	$3.4K	1 Jan 2028	Yes1.3¢No99¢
$2.50T+	<1%	—	—	$0	$3.7K	1 Jan 2028	Yes0.8¢No99.2¢
<$1.25T	<1%	—	—	$0	$3.1K	1 Jan 2028	Yes0.65¢No99.35¢

Outcome	Chance	24h	7d	24h volume	Liquidity	Closes	Paper trade
$105B to $115B	27%	—	—	$717	$3.3K	1 Jan 2028	Yes27¢No74¢
$115B to $125B	26%	—	—	$520	$1.6K	1 Jan 2028	Yes26¢No74¢
<$65B	14%	—	—	$917	$1.1K	1 Jan 2028	Yes14¢No86¢
$135B+	11%	—	—	$550	$1.4K	1 Jan 2028	Yes11¢No89¢
$75B to $85B	10%	—	—	$274	$851	1 Jan 2028	Yes10¢No90¢
$85B to $95B	7.5%	—	—	$481	$1.2K	1 Jan 2028	Yes7.5¢No93¢
$95B to $105B	6.3%	—	—	$324	$1.1K	1 Jan 2028	Yes6.3¢No94¢
$65B to $75B	2.6%	—	—	$225	$1.0K	1 Jan 2028	Yes2.6¢No97¢
$125B to $135B	2.5%	—	—	$249	$890	1 Jan 2028	Yes2.5¢No97¢

Outcome	Chance	24h	7d	24h volume	Liquidity	Closes	Paper trade
1.5T+	42%	—	—	$611	$6.2K	1 Jan 2028	Yes42¢No58¢
No IPO by December 31, 2027	31%	—	—	$184	$9.1K	1 Jan 2028	Yes31¢No69¢
1.25T–1.5T	9.5%	—	—	$2.2K	$11.6K	1 Jan 2028	Yes9.5¢No91¢
1T–1.25T	8.6%	—	—	$233	$16.9K	1 Jan 2028	Yes8.6¢No91¢
750B–1T	2.9%	—	—	$135	$38.5K	1 Jan 2028	Yes2.9¢No97¢
500–750B	2.2%	—	—	$0	$7.9K	1 Jan 2028	Yes2.2¢No98¢
<500B	<1%	—	—	$113	$8.5K	1 Jan 2028	Yes0.95¢No99.05¢

Outcome	Chance	24h	7d	24h volume	Liquidity	Closes	Paper trade
November 19	30%	—	—	$3.3K	$4.9K	20 Nov 2026	Yes30¢No71¢
November 20	25%	—	—	$3.3K	$4.7K	21 Nov 2026	Yes25¢No75¢
November 18	12%	—	—	$1.2K	$5.1K	19 Nov 2026	Yes12¢No88¢
No IPO by November 30, 2026	11%	—	—	$855	$6.6K	1 Dec 2026	Yes11¢No90¢
November 27	8%	—	—	$2.1K	$6.1K	28 Nov 2026	Yes8¢No92¢
November 16	8%	—	—	$1.4K	$6.7K	17 Nov 2026	Yes8¢No92¢

Outcome	Chance	24h	7d	24h volume	Liquidity	Closes	Paper trade
Goldman Sachs	92%	—	—	$901	$3.3K	1 Jan 2028	Yes92¢No8.5¢
Morgan Stanley	4.0%	—	—	$606	$4.2K	1 Jan 2028	Yes4.0¢No96¢
Bank of America	<1%	—	—	$0	$4.0K	1 Jan 2028	Yes0.55¢No99.45¢
Wells Fargo	<1%	—	—	$32	$3.2K	1 Jan 2028	Yes0.25¢No99.75¢
Barclays	<1%	—	—	$0	$3.0K	1 Jan 2028	Yes0.2¢No99.8¢
JPMorgan	<1%	—	—	$0	$3.8K	1 Jan 2028	Yes0.15¢No99.85¢

Anthropic IPO by __?

Vi IQ: what actually moved

How the odds moved, last 30 days

Where the money went today

What an order really pays

Most argued about

The largest positions

Large trades

Movement log

Work this room

Which big companies will IPO, and when?

Who lists, and when

Anthropic IPO by __?

Value at listing

Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap

Listing details

What will Anthropic's public ticker be?

What moved

Over 24 hours

How IPOs markets resolved

Moves and what was reported or dated near them

About the IPOs prediction markets

What moves these markets

IPOs prediction markets: questions and answers

Anthropic IPO by __?

Vi IQ: what actually moved

How the odds moved, last 30 days

Where the money went today

What an order really pays

Most argued about

The largest positions

Large trades

Movement log

Work this room

Which big companies will IPO, and when?

Who lists, and when

Anthropic IPO by __?

Value at listing

Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap

Listing details

What will Anthropic's public ticker be?

What moved

Over 24 hours

How IPOs markets resolved

Moves and what was reported or dated near them

About the IPOs prediction markets

What moves these markets

IPOs prediction markets: questions and answers

In which month will Anthropic IPO?

OpenAI IPO by...?

Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?

Kraken IPO by ___ ?

Bloomberg IPO by...?

Deepseek IPO by...?

Consensys IPO by ___ ?

What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?

Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?

What will Anthropic's IPO valuation be?

How much will Anthropic raise in its IPO?

OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap

Anthropic IPO Date

Anthropic IPO: Open Price above IPO Price?

Anthropic IPO: Closing Price above IPO Price on First Day?

Lead Bank in Anthropic's IPO?

OpenAI $1t+ IPO before 2027?

Over 7 days

Vultax research