Analytics
Yes is at 15.5%, down 29 points from 44% when the market opened on 22 May 2026.
Across the 156 daily closes on record from 22 May 2026 to 28 Oct 2026 (4 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 44% on 22 May 2026 and the lowest 8.5% on 12 Jul 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 14.5%; a month before, 18.5%. Its largest one-day move was 28 points up, to 39% on 16 Aug 2026.
$1.75T–$2.0T ranks fourth of the 8 outcomes in “What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?”. <$1T leads at 29.6%; $1.25T–$1.5T is at 17.4%.
$102.87K traded in the last 24 hours. The order book holds $13.75K, with a 1.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 357 trades, $7.86K bought Yes and $11.89K bought No; the largest was a $3.07K buy of No at 77.5¢.
The largest Yes position is DancewithRisk with 9.3K shares; the largest No position is Indigo Signal 2966 with 5.6K. Ten wallets hold 91.7% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2028.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 28, 6:34 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 156 points, 22 May 2026 – 28 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 22 May 2026 | 44.0% |
| 28 Oct 2026 | 15.5% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| DancewithRisk | Yes | 9.34K |
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 5.56K |
| DerDon | No | 4.41K |
This market will resolve according to the implied equity valuation of OpenAI at its initial public offering (IPO) price. The IPO valuation is defined as the final IPO price per share multiplied by the total number of shares outstanding on a fully diluted basis, as disclosed in the final prospectus filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The IPO price will be the final offering price to the public as stated in the final prospectus. Trading prices after listing, including the opening trade, intraday prices, or closing price on the first day of trading, will not be considered. Indicated or preliminary price ranges, including any ranges disclosed in earlier filings or amendments, will not be considered. If the calculated valuation falls exactly on a boundary between two ranges, this market will resolve to the higher range. If OpenAI does not complete an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. The primary resolution source will be the final prospectus filed with the SEC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/what-will-openais-ipo-valuation-be
| Anjun |
| No |
| 3.84K |
| xtxpleasecallme | Yes | 2.41K |
| Flamboyant-Warming | No | 866 |
| SPLPB | Yes | 826.01 |
| shoobadooba18 | No | 675.85 |
| Dr.PNL | Yes | 599.99 |
| 0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468F | Yes | 515 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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