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Vultax does not execute orders. These controls open the official Polymarket market or route back into the Vultax predictions terminal.
“Will OpenAI's IPO valuation be at least $2.5T?” is a finance prediction market on Polymarket with two tradeable outcomes, Yes and No. It belongs to the event “What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?”. The Yes price is the market's implied probability that the question resolves Yes. Quotes can change as orders are updated or filled; a quoted price does not guarantee an available fill at that price.
Trading is open until Jan 1, 2028 UTC. As of Sep 30, 1:43 AM UTC, Yes trades at 20.6¢, a 20.6% implied chance, $3.98K traded in the last 24 hours, $5.99K resting in the order book, a 0.7% bid-ask spread.
Vultax observes this market from Polymarket's public order book and data API and keeps its own record: 132 daily price points from May 22, 2026 UTC to Sep 30, 2026 UTC (Yes between 1.9% and 41.5%); 36 loaded holder wallets, the largest ten holding 90.9% of the loaded shares; 208 recent public fills from 75 wallets. Each figure carries its observation time; nothing here is a return forecast.
Public Polymarket market/event context is available; Vultax source-pack coverage is tracked separately.
Current public quote is shown when Vultax depth snapshots are unavailable.
Nine stops, one per figure on this page. Each stop says what the number is, why it matters, and what it reads right now for this market.
Each outcome trades as a share that pays $1 if it wins and nothing if it loses. Prices are quoted in cents, and Yes plus No add up to about one dollar.
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB · 132 points · 22 May 2026 – 30 Sep 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 22 May 2026 | 41.5% |
| 30 Sep 2026 | 20.6% |
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| vinii | Yes | 8.12K |
| yoyobb2018 | No | 4.6K |
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No |
This market will resolve according to the implied equity valuation of OpenAI at its initial public offering (IPO) price. The IPO valuation is defined as the final IPO price per share multiplied by the total number of shares outstanding on a fully diluted basis, as disclosed in the final prospectus filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The IPO price will be the final offering price to the public as stated in the final prospectus. Trading prices after listing, including the opening trade, intraday prices, or closing price on the first day of trading, will not be considered. Indicated or preliminary price ranges, including any ranges disclosed in earlier filings or amendments, will not be considered. If the calculated valuation falls exactly on a boundary between two ranges, this market will resolve to the higher range. If OpenAI does not complete an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. The primary resolution source will be the final prospectus filed with the SEC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/what-will-openais-ipo-valuation-be
The Yes price read as a chance. A share at 21.5¢ implies 21.5%, but fees, available depth and who participates can affect that price. A market price is not a calibrated forecast or a verdict.
Dollar value of shares that changed hands in the last 24 hours. High volume means the price is being tested by real money; low volume means a few trades can move it.
Reported dollars resting in the order book. The available size on your side, at the prices you would accept, determines what can fill. A large total alone does not guarantee an execution near the quoted price.
The gap between the best bid and the best ask. A tight spread makes entry and exit cheap; a wide spread is a cost paid on every round trip.
The wallets holding the most shares on each side, and how much of the loaded sample the largest ten control. Concentration shows whether a market is a crowd or a handful of large positions.
The public fills, newest first: which wallet bought or sold which outcome, at what price, and when. It is the market's own diary, and every wallet on it links to a trader profile.
Observed closes of the Yes price over the market's life. The range shows how sure or split the crowd has been; the move shows which way it has been changing its mind.
Trading stops at the close time. The outcome is then settled by the resolution source named in the rules. A closed market is not resolved until the venue reports it, so the two states are shown separately.
| 2.81K |
| PackersPete | Yes | 2.46K |
| suoha518 | No | 2.11K |
| tetrose | Yes | 818 |
| Flaner | Yes | 704.79 |
| hp210210 | No | 685.77 |
| hfv | No | 646.54 |
| Haradwaith | No | 400.05 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
