Analytics
Yes is at 7.5%, down 37 points from 44% when the market opened on 22 May 2026.
The high was 44% on 22 May 2026 and the low 1.1% on 15 Aug 2026. A week ago Yes was at 4.7%; a month ago, 4.9%. Its largest one-day move was 29 points down, to 15.5% on 23 May 2026.
$2.0T–$2.25T ranks sixth of the 8 outcomes in “What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?”. $1.75T–$2.0T leads at 23.5%; <$1T is at 19.3%.
$5.17K traded in the last 24 hours. The order book holds $6.69K, with a 7.2% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 118 trades, $96.9 bought Yes and $2.5K bought No.
The largest Yes position is DancewithRisk with 1.7K shares; the largest No position is Indigo Signal 2966 with 4.5K. Ten wallets hold 98.6% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2028.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 11, 10:16 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB · 140 points · 22 May 2026 – 11 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 22 May 2026 | 44.0% |
| 11 Oct 2026 | 7.5% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 4.46K |
| DancewithRisk | Yes | 1.69K |
| LornaPredicts | Yes | 738.81 |
This market will resolve according to the implied equity valuation of OpenAI at its initial public offering (IPO) price. The IPO valuation is defined as the final IPO price per share multiplied by the total number of shares outstanding on a fully diluted basis, as disclosed in the final prospectus filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The IPO price will be the final offering price to the public as stated in the final prospectus. Trading prices after listing, including the opening trade, intraday prices, or closing price on the first day of trading, will not be considered. Indicated or preliminary price ranges, including any ranges disclosed in earlier filings or amendments, will not be considered. If the calculated valuation falls exactly on a boundary between two ranges, this market will resolve to the higher range. If OpenAI does not complete an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. The primary resolution source will be the final prospectus filed with the SEC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/what-will-openais-ipo-valuation-be
| Violet Vector B233 | Yes | 495.95 |
| AJSV | Yes | 429.23 |
| Gausslois | Yes | 420 |
| vinii | Yes | 291.66 |
| Shy-Note | Yes | 220 |
| Dr.PNL | Yes | 72.56 |
| menthe2 | Yes | 40 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
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