Analytics
The Anthropic side is at 97%, up 47 points from 50% when the market opened on 31 Jan 2026.
Across the 244 daily closes on record from 31 Jan 2026 to 28 Oct 2026 (27 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 97% on 28 Oct 2026 and the lowest 24.5% on 22 May 2026. A week before that last close the Anthropic side was at 94.5%; a month before, 94.6%. Its largest one-day move was 56 points up, to 80% on 2 Jun 2026.
$4.48K traded in the last 24 hours, out of $449.74K since listing. The order book holds $57.01K, with a 0.9% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 500 trades, $41.08K bought Anthropic and $1.47K bought OpenAI; the largest was a $13.16K sell of Anthropic at 95.4¢.
The largest Anthropic position is Paul973973 with 25.6K shares; the largest OpenAI position is ImJustKen with 22K. Ten wallets hold 41.5% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2028.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 28, 8:52 AM UTC
The paper ticket needs a verified Yes / No pair, which this market does not have here.
Open in PredictionsDaily closes of the Anthropic price, Polymarket CLOB, 244 points, 31 Jan 2026 – 28 Oct 2026
| Observed | Anthropic price |
|---|---|
| 31 Jan 2026 | 50.0% |
| 28 Oct 2026 | 97.0% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Paul973973 | Anthropic | 25.6K |
| ImJustKenVerifiedVerified Polymarket profile | OpenAI | 22.03K |
| GOLADS96 |
This market will resolve to "Anthropic" if Anthropic completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before OpenAI completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources. This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before Anthropic completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources. This market will resolve 50-50 if: - Neither company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET; - Both companies complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or - By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded. The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange. The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-anthropic-or-openai-ipo-first
| Anthropic |
| 8.21K |
| thebetter1234 | Anthropic | 6.73K |
| Spiffy-Win | OpenAI | 4.87K |
| woodlawncap | Anthropic | 4.3K |
| vengo | OpenAI | 3.15K |
| yoyobb2018 | Anthropic | 2.96K |
| wweat | OpenAI | 2.84K |
| occasionalAwareness | OpenAI | 2.63K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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