AI Race prediction markets

This room reads every open Polymarket market on artificial intelligence and sorts it into the model race, the labs as companies, and release dates. The lead market asks which company will have the top-ranked model at the end of the year.

A price is the cost of a contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens, so 62¢ reads as a 62% chance. In a market with many named outcomes the prices should add up to roughly 100%; a gap is the venue's spread and fees, not a free lunch.

The model markets settle on a public leaderboard named in their rules, at a fixed moment. That makes them a bet on a ranking at an instant, not on which model is better in general: a release the week before the deadline can decide the market, and a tie in the ranking is broken by the rule text. The monthly versions of the same question are separate contracts that reset the race every few weeks.

Each market resolves on its own written rules, including the deadline, the resolution source and what counts as the event. Two markets on the same subject with different wording can and do trade at different prices, so read the rules on the market page before comparing them.