Nothing here has moved by more than its normal daily swing. The prices below are where the market has settled for now.
Little change: −0.8 points on the day against a normal daily swing of 0.4.
Little change: +3.0 points on the day against a normal daily swing of 4.0.
Research is free. Create a free account to save room watches and use your Vi allowance.
| Outcome | 30 days ago | Now |
|---|---|---|
| 46% | 72% | |
| OpenAI | 3.7% | 3.2% |
| Outcome | Bid / ask | Within 2¢ | $1K pays | $10K pays |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 69¢/72¢ | $109, $831 | 73¢+1.4 | 83¢+11 | |
| Anthropic | 24¢/28¢ | $32, $62 | 34¢+5.6 | 70¢+42 |
| OpenAI | 2.6¢/3.6¢ | $651, $62 | 10¢+6.6 | 48¢+45 |
| Meta | 0.4¢/0.6¢ | $97, $135 | 7.0¢+6.4 | 40¢+40 |
| SpaceXAI | 0.3¢/0.4¢ | $112, $70 | 8.1¢+7.7 | 42¢+41 |
Vultax Research: how Polymarket trader leaderboards compare
Vultax Research: what copying a Polymarket trade 30 seconds late costs
Last recorded read: 2026-11-05 09:33 UTC
Down 5.0 points in 24 hours, 2.0× its normal daily swing. At its lowest in 30 days.
Up 5.0 points in a week, 0.5× a normal week for this contract. 5 days running in the same direction. At its highest in 30 days.
Up 22 points in a week, 2.1× a normal week for this contract. 4 days running in the same direction. At its highest in 30 days.
Down 21 points in a week, 3.2× a normal week for this contract. At its lowest in 30 days.
Down 17 points in a week, 3.2× a normal week for this contract.
Up 19 points in a week, 1.8× a normal week for this contract. 4 days running in the same direction.
Down 18 points in a week, 3.4× a normal week for this contract.
Up 1.5 points in 24 hours, 3.0× its normal daily swing. Volume is well under a normal day, so treat it with care.
Down 18 points in a week, 3.3× a normal week for this contract. Volume is well under a normal day, so treat it with care.
Down 16 points in a week, 2.9× a normal week for this contract.
Up 18 points in a week, 1.7× a normal week for this contract.
Down 15 points in a week, 2.2× a normal week for this contract.
Up 6.5 points on the day, against a week that ran down 16: 2.6× its normal daily swing, the other way.
Up 17 points in a week, 1.6× a normal week for this contract.
Down 18 points in a week, 2.6× a normal week for this contract.
Up 10 points in 24 hours, 2.5× its normal daily swing. Up 19 on the week.
Down 3.0 points in 24 hours, 6.1× its normal daily swing. At its lowest in 30 days.
Up 20 points in a week, 1.8× a normal week for this contract.
Up 4.0 points on the day, against a week that ran down 9.5: 1.6× its normal daily swing, the other way.
Down 20 points in a week, 3.0× a normal week for this contract.
Down 1.3 points in 24 hours, 2.5× its normal daily swing. At its lowest in 30 days.
Up 19 points in a week, 1.8× a normal week for this contract. 5 days running in the same direction. At its highest in 30 days.
Down 14 points in a week, 2.7× a normal week for this contract. 4 days running in the same direction. At its lowest in 30 days.
Up 2.0 points in 24 hours, 4.0× its normal daily swing.
On Polymarket, “Which company has the best AI model end of November?” has Google in front at 71%, on $60.4K traded across that market in the last 24 hours. That price is a forecast for the check the market's rules name, Arena's text leaderboard with style control off; it is not the current ranking, which Arena publishes at arena.ai/leaderboard. This room reads 1,189 open markets across 139 Polymarket events, which together traded $798K over the same 24 hours and hold $7.6M of resting liquidity. Prices as of 5 Nov 2026, 09:33 UTC.
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7d | 24h volume | Liquidity | Closes | Paper trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 62% | — | — | $17.1K |
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7d | 24h volume | Liquidity | Closes | Paper trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $1.75–$2.0T | 26% | — | — | $10.6K |
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7d | 24h volume | Liquidity | Closes | Paper trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 15 | >99% | +3.4 | +24 | $1.6K | $18.8K |
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7d | 24h volume | Liquidity | Closes | Paper trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31, 2028 | 35% | +1.0 | −4.0 | $23 |
| Market | Resolved as | Total volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|
| OpenAI’s valuation end of October 2026? | $1.20-$1.30T | $46.8K | 3 Nov 2026 |
| Gemini Carbon: Text Arena Debut? | 1520+ | $29.9K | 3 Nov 2026 |
| GPU rental prices (A100) end of October? | $1.00-$1.25 | $72.0K | 2 Nov 2026 |
| GPU rental prices (RTX 5090) end of October? | $0.60+ | $72.3K |
The Best AI Model room has no sourced event timeline to set its moves beside, so the cause of each move is unconfirmed.
This room reads every open Polymarket market on artificial intelligence and sorts it into the model race, the labs as companies, and release dates. The lead market asks which company will own the top-ranked model on Arena's text leaderboard when it is checked at the end of the current month; the year-end version sits on the same board.
A price is the cost of a contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens, so 62¢ reads as a 62% chance. In a market with many named outcomes the prices should add up to roughly 100%; a gap is the venue's spread and fees, not a free lunch.
The model markets settle on a public leaderboard named in their rules, at a fixed moment. That makes them a bet on a ranking at an instant, not on which model is better in general: a release the week before the deadline can decide the market, and a tie in the ranking is broken by the rule text. The monthly versions of the same question are separate contracts that reset the race every few weeks.
Each market resolves on its own written rules, including the deadline, the resolution source and what counts as the event. Two markets on the same subject with different wording can and do trade at different prices, so read the rules on the market page before comparing them.
| 31 Dec 2026 |
| Yes62¢No39¢ |
| Anthropic | 32% | — | — | $3.9K | $36.6K | 31 Dec 2026 | Yes32¢No69¢ |
| OpenAI | 4.0% | — | — | $4.7K | $36.6K | 31 Dec 2026 | Yes4.0¢No96¢ |
| Meta | 1.1% | — | — | $6.1K | $65.6K | 31 Dec 2026 | Yes1.1¢No99¢ |
| xAI | <1% | — | — | $2.2K | $110K | 31 Dec 2026 | Yes0.85¢No99.15¢ |
| Alibaba | <1% | — | — | $11.1K | $63.3K | 31 Dec 2026 | Yes0.35¢No99.65¢ |
| DeepSeek | <1% | — | — | $4.9K | $144K | 31 Dec 2026 | Yes0.25¢No99.75¢ |
| Moonshot | <1% | — | — | $1.2K | $86.9K | 31 Dec 2026 | Yes0.25¢No99.75¢ |
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7d | 24h volume | Liquidity | Closes | Paper trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 71% | — | — | $9.1K | $22.9K | 1 Dec 2026 | Yes71¢No30¢ | |
| Anthropic | 26% | — | — | $15.2K | $22.8K | 1 Dec 2026 | Yes26¢No74¢ |
| OpenAI | 3.1% | — | — | $9.6K | $23.9K | 1 Dec 2026 | Yes3.1¢No97¢ |
| Meta | <1% | — | — | $5.3K | $27.6K | 1 Dec 2026 | Yes0.5¢No99.5¢ |
| SpaceXAI | <1% | — | — | $5.2K | $30.8K | 1 Dec 2026 | Yes0.35¢No99.65¢ |
| Alibaba | <1% | — | — | $5.9K | $34.4K | 1 Dec 2026 | Yes0.15¢No99.85¢ |
| Z.ai | <1% | — | — | $5.2K | $47.0K | 1 Dec 2026 | Yes0.15¢No99.85¢ |
| DeepSeek | <1% | — | — | $4.8K | $42.7K | 1 Dec 2026 | Yes0.15¢No99.85¢ |
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7d | 24h volume | Liquidity | Closes | Paper trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alibaba | 36% | — | — | $1.1K | $934 | 1 Feb 2027 | Yes36¢No65¢ |
| Xiaomi | 28% | — | — | $1.1K | $986 | 1 Feb 2027 | Yes28¢No73¢ |
| Moonshot | 23% | — | — | $657 | $1.0K | 1 Feb 2027 | Yes23¢No77¢ |
| Z.ai | 11% | — | — | $20 | $1.0K | 1 Feb 2027 | Yes11¢No90¢ |
| ByteDance | 4% | — | — | $321 | $978 | 1 Feb 2027 | Yes4¢No96¢ |
| StepFun | 2.2% | — | — | $20 | $774 | 1 Feb 2027 | Yes2.2¢No98¢ |
| Tencent | 2.1% | — | — | $40 | $769 | 1 Feb 2027 | Yes2.1¢No98¢ |
| MiniMax | 2% | — | — | $20 | $735 | 1 Feb 2027 | Yes2¢No98¢ |
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7d | 24h volume | Liquidity | Closes | Paper trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alibaba | 28% | — | — | $476 | $832 | 1 Feb 2027 | Yes28¢No72¢ |
| Z.ai | 26% | — | — | $336 | $861 | 1 Feb 2027 | Yes26¢No74¢ |
| Xiaomi | 21% | — | — | $689 | $1.1K | 1 Feb 2027 | Yes21¢No80¢ |
| Moonshot | 20% | — | — | $554 | $915 | 1 Feb 2027 | Yes20¢No81¢ |
| DeepSeek | 7.4% | — | — | $80 | $808 | 1 Feb 2027 | Yes7.4¢No93¢ |
| ByteDance | 5.5% | — | — | $71 | $858 | 1 Feb 2027 | Yes5.5¢No95¢ |
| StepFun | 3.9% | — | — | $25 | $749 | 1 Feb 2027 | Yes3.9¢No96¢ |
| Tencent | 3.5% | — | — | $45 | $714 | 1 Feb 2027 | Yes3.5¢No96¢ |
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7d | 24h volume | Liquidity | Closes | Paper trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| gemini-4-carbon-high | 78% | — | — | $1.8K | $675 | 17 Nov 2026 | Yes78¢No22¢ |
| Other | 19% | — | — | $181 | $1.2K | 17 Nov 2026 | Yes19¢No81¢ |
| gemini-4-argon-high | 4.5% | — | — | $56 | $760 | 17 Nov 2026 | Yes4.5¢No96¢ |
| claude-opus-5.5-high | 4.3% | — | — | $56 | $753 | 17 Nov 2026 | Yes4.3¢No96¢ |
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7d | 24h volume | Liquidity | Closes | Paper trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 42% | — | — | $520 | $3.2K | 1 Dec 2026 | Yes42¢No58¢ | |
| Anthropic | 42% | — | — | $606 | $2.8K | 1 Dec 2026 | Yes42¢No58¢ |
| OpenAI | 12% | — | — | $0 | $2.7K | 1 Dec 2026 | Yes12¢No89¢ |
| Meta | 6.9% | — | — | $0 | $2.3K | 1 Dec 2026 | Yes6.9¢No93¢ |
| Alibaba | 1.1% | — | — | $229 | $2.3K | 1 Dec 2026 | Yes1.1¢No99¢ |
| Nvidia | 1.1% | — | — | $0 | $3.0K | 1 Dec 2026 | Yes1.1¢No99¢ |
| Meituan | <1% | — | — | $0 | $3.0K | 1 Dec 2026 | Yes0.8¢No99.2¢ |
| SpaceXAI | <1% | — | — | $232 | $2.6K | 1 Dec 2026 | Yes0.6¢No99.4¢ |
| 1 Jan 2028 |
| Yes26¢No75¢ |
| $1.5–$1.75T | 24% | — | — | $15.7K | $22.1K | 1 Jan 2028 | Yes24¢No76¢ |
| $2.0–$2.25T | 17% | — | — | $13.0K | $81.7K | 1 Jan 2028 | Yes17¢No83¢ |
| $1.25–$1.5T | 16% | — | — | $39.7K | $21.9K | 1 Jan 2028 | Yes16¢No85¢ |
| <$1.25T | 8.8% | — | — | $49.0K | $24.6K | 1 Jan 2028 | Yes8.8¢No91¢ |
| $2.25–$2.5T | 5.5% | — | — | $8.8K | $24.2K | 1 Jan 2028 | Yes5.5¢No95¢ |
| $2.5–$2.75T | 1.9% | — | — | $10.5K | $16.9K | 1 Jan 2028 | Yes1.9¢No98¢ |
| $2.75–$3.0T | 1.1% | — | — | $8.0K | $20.8K | 1 Jan 2028 | Yes1.1¢No99¢ |
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7d | 24h volume | Liquidity | Closes | Paper trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ↑$1.5T | 92% | — | — | $2.3K | $9.2K | 5 Jan 2027 | Yes92¢No8.4¢ |
| ↑$1.75T | 79% | — | — | $674 | $25.7K | 5 Jan 2027 | Yes79¢No21¢ |
| ↑$2.0T | 63% | — | — | $5.4K | $33.8K | 5 Jan 2027 | Yes63¢No37¢ |
| ↑$2.25T | 35% | — | — | $1.7K | $21.2K | 5 Jan 2027 | Yes35¢No66¢ |
| ↑$2.5T | 18% | — | — | $12.7K | $84.2K | 5 Jan 2027 | Yes18¢No82¢ |
| ↑$3.0T | 13% | — | — | $12.9K | $142K | 5 Jan 2027 | Yes13¢No88¢ |
| ↑$4.0T | 3.3% | 0 | −2.0 | $187 | $38.6K | 5 Jan 2027 | Yes3.3¢No97¢ |
| ↓$800B | 2.5% | −1.9 | −1.3 | $140 | $4.5K | 5 Jan 2027 | Yes2.5¢No98¢ |
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7d | 24h volume | Liquidity | Closes | Paper trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $85B to $95B | 32% | +1.5 | +14 | $4.4K | $17.0K | 1 Jan 2028 | Yes32¢No68¢ |
| $95B to $105B | 31% | +0.9 | +0.9 | $2.8K | $19.6K | 1 Jan 2028 | Yes31¢No69¢ |
| $75B to $85B | 27% | +1.1 | +22 | $7.8K | $15.5K | 1 Jan 2028 | Yes27¢No73¢ |
| $65B to $75B | 4.5% | +2.8 | +2.4 | $564 | $19.1K | 1 Jan 2028 | Yes4.5¢No96¢ |
| $105B to $115B | 2.4% | −4.6 | −16 | $173 | $13.2K | 1 Jan 2028 | Yes2.4¢No98¢ |
| $115B to $125B | 2.1% | 0 | −6.4 | $0 | $15.9K | 1 Jan 2028 | Yes2.1¢No98¢ |
| <$65B | 2% | 0 | −0.8 | $0 | $11.4K | 1 Jan 2028 | Yes2¢No98¢ |
| $135B+ | <1% | −0.9 | −2.3 | $103 | $14.4K | 1 Jan 2028 | Yes0.5¢No99.5¢ |
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7d | 24h volume | Liquidity | Closes | Paper trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.8T+ | 56% | −5.5 | −13 | $6.9K | $10.6K | 1 Jan 2028 | Yes56¢No44¢ |
| 1.5–1.8T | 25% | — | +5.8 | $1.0K | $14.7K | 1 Jan 2028 | Yes25¢No75¢ |
| 1.2–1.5T | 15% | +3.3 | +9.3 | $2.1K | $16.4K | 1 Jan 2028 | Yes15¢No85¢ |
| 0.9–1.2T | 4.3% | +3.0 | +3.3 | $1.3K | $16.1K | 1 Jan 2028 | Yes4.3¢No96¢ |
| No IPO by December 31, 2027 | 2.4% | 0 | 0 | $510 | $15.6K | 1 Jan 2028 | Yes2.4¢No98¢ |
| <0.6T | 1.5% | 0 | 0 | $398 | $16.2K | 1 Jan 2028 | Yes1.5¢No99¢ |
| 0.6–0.9T | 1.1% | 0 | +0.9 | $869 | $23.3K | 1 Jan 2028 | Yes1.1¢No99¢ |
| Yes99.05¢No0.95¢ |
| December 31 | 99% | 0 | +9.8 | $5.6K | $22.2K | 1 Jan 2027 | Yes99¢No1.1¢ |
| November 30 | 98% | +11 | +28 | $8.7K | $17.5K | 1 Dec 2026 | Yes98¢No1.6¢ |
| November 15 | 95% | +22 | +67 | $8.9K | $7.3K | 16 Nov 2026 | Yes95¢No5.5¢ |
| November 13 | 94% | +29 | — | $7.1K | $5.2K | 14 Nov 2026 | Yes94¢No6.5¢ |
| November 11 | 88% | +30 | — | $5.4K | $5.2K | 12 Nov 2026 | Yes88¢No12¢ |
| November 9 | 73% | +26 | — | $4.6K | $3.2K | 10 Nov 2026 | Yes73¢No28¢ |
| November 6 | 50% | +12 | — | $10.6K | $3.3K | 7 Nov 2026 | Yes50¢No50¢ |
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7d | 24h volume | Liquidity | Closes | Paper trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31 | 98% | 0 | +6.3 | $1.1K | $18.5K | 1 Jan 2027 | Yes98¢No1.6¢ |
| November 30 | 97% | +0.5 | +6.7 | $2.0K | $9.0K | 1 Dec 2026 | Yes97¢No2.8¢ |
| November 15 | 83% | +1.0 | +20 | $9.7K | $11.9K | 16 Nov 2026 | Yes83¢No18¢ |
| November 13 | 77% | +0.5 | +27 | $5.1K | $11.7K | 14 Nov 2026 | Yes77¢No23¢ |
| November 11 | 64% | −6.5 | +36 | $8.8K | $6.2K | 12 Nov 2026 | Yes64¢No36¢ |
| November 9 | 11% | −9.0 | −13 | $3.2K | $2.8K | 10 Nov 2026 | Yes11¢No90¢ |
| November 6 | 1.5% | −4.9 | −11 | $5.7K | $4.4K | 7 Nov 2026 | Yes1.5¢No99¢ |
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7d | 24h volume | Liquidity | Closes | Paper trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| November 5 | 39% | +24 | — | $5.7K | $1.0K | 6 Nov 2026 | Yes39¢No62¢ |
| November 6 | 20% | +6.5 | — | $7.6K | $619 | 7 Nov 2026 | Yes20¢No80¢ |
| November 10 | 16% | +10 | — | $2.5K | $780 | 11 Nov 2026 | Yes16¢No84¢ |
| November 9 | 9.9% | +6.7 | — | $3.8K | $1.8K | 10 Nov 2026 | Yes9.9¢No90¢ |
| November 8 | 7.7% | +6.9 | — | $1.2K | $649 | 9 Nov 2026 | Yes7.7¢No92¢ |
| November 12 | 6.8% | +1.2 | — | $3.4K | $2.6K | 13 Nov 2026 | Yes6.8¢No93¢ |
| November 18 | 5.5% | −6.2 | — | $272 | $2.5K | 19 Nov 2026 | Yes5.5¢No95¢ |
| November 13 | 4.8% | +4.3 | — | $718 | $1.2K | 14 Nov 2026 | Yes4.8¢No95¢ |
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7d | 24h volume | Liquidity | Closes | Paper trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| November 11 | 33% | +23 | +30 | $4.3K | $5.8K | 12 Nov 2026 | Yes33¢No67¢ |
| November 10 | 22% | −33 | +17 | $19.5K | $7.5K | 11 Nov 2026 | Yes22¢No78¢ |
| November 12 | 13% | +8.6 | +3.5 | $372 | $3.0K | 13 Nov 2026 | Yes13¢No87¢ |
| November 9 | 7.9% | +2.0 | +7.3 | $2.1K | $6.1K | 10 Nov 2026 | Yes7.9¢No92¢ |
| November 19 | 2.6% | +1.9 | −0.9 | $95 | $2.5K | 20 Nov 2026 | Yes2.6¢No97¢ |
| November 14 | 2.1% | +1.8 | −5.9 | $561 | $5.2K | 15 Nov 2026 | Yes2.1¢No98¢ |
| November 23 | 1.8% | 0 | −2.5 | $60 | $2.6K | 24 Nov 2026 | Yes1.8¢No98¢ |
| No release by November 30 | 1.2% | −2.1 | −7.3 | $99 | $5.1K | 1 Dec 2026 | Yes1.2¢No99¢ |
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7d | 24h volume | Liquidity | Closes | Paper trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| November 9–November 15 | 81% | +8.0 | +65 | $14.4K | $9.5K | 16 Nov 2026 | Yes81¢No19¢ |
| November 16–November 22 | 11% | −1.5 | +7.5 | $1.1K | $20.3K | 23 Nov 2026 | Yes11¢No89¢ |
| November 2–November 8 | 2.3% | −9.2 | −18 | $1.5K | $11.9K | 9 Nov 2026 | Yes2.3¢No98¢ |
| November 23–November 29 | 1.8% | −0.8 | −7.1 | $631 | $13.3K | 30 Nov 2026 | Yes1.8¢No98¢ |
| November 30–December 6 | 1.6% | 0 | −5.9 | $626 | $11.4K | 7 Dec 2026 | Yes1.6¢No98¢ |
| December 7–December 13 | <1% | — | −6.9 | $342 | $10.9K | 14 Dec 2026 | Yes0.15¢No99.85¢ |
| No release by January 3 | <1% | — | −4.5 | $623 | $11.8K | 4 Jan 2027 | Yes0.05¢No99.95¢ |
| December 14–December 20 | <1% | 0 | −9.4 | $371 | $5.7K | 21 Dec 2026 | Yes0.05¢No99.95¢ |
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7d | 24h volume | Liquidity | Closes | Paper trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31 | 94% | −1.1 | −0.5 | $6.3K | $15.3K | 31 Dec 2026 | Yes94¢No6.0¢ |
| November 30 | 80% | −0.5 | −9.5 | $376 | $8.2K | 1 Dec 2026 | Yes80¢No20¢ |
| November 19 | 61% | — | −18 | $120 | $2.8K | 20 Nov 2026 | Yes61¢No40¢ |
| November 12 | 35% | −10 | −34 | $1.4K | $3.6K | 13 Nov 2026 | Yes35¢No65¢ |
| November 10 | 22% | −12 | −35 | $1.7K | $4.1K | 11 Nov 2026 | Yes22¢No79¢ |
| November 9 | 8% | −11 | −38 | $1.6K | $3.1K | 10 Nov 2026 | Yes8¢No92¢ |
| November 6 | 5.5% | −5.5 | −38 | $371 | $2.5K | 7 Nov 2026 | Yes5.5¢No95¢ |
| November 5 | 3.4% | −7.1 | −29 | $2.6K | $4.4K | 6 Nov 2026 | Yes3.4¢No97¢ |
| 1 Jan 2029 |
| Yes35¢No66¢ |
| December 31, 2027 | 22% | −0.5 | +0.5 | $1.4K | $36.9K | 1 Jan 2028 | Yes22¢No79¢ |
| June 30, 2027 | 18% | +2.0 | +3.0 | $9.0K | $40.7K | 1 Jul 2027 | Yes18¢No83¢ |
| December 31, 2026 | 2% | 0 | 0 | $1.3K | $61.5K | 1 Jan 2027 | Yes2¢No98¢ |
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7d | 24h volume | Liquidity | Closes | Paper trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1500+ | 94% | — | — | $0 | $6.9K | 1 Jul 2027 | Yes94¢No6.4¢ |
| 1510+ | 91% | +3.0 | +9.0 | $1.6K | $6.6K | 1 Jul 2027 | Yes91¢No9.0¢ |
| 1520+ | 75% | −0.5 | +12 | $0 | $2.9K | 1 Jul 2027 | Yes75¢No26¢ |
| 1530+ | 41% | −3.5 | +3.0 | $689 | $3.1K | 1 Jul 2027 | Yes41¢No60¢ |
| 1540+ | 35% | −1.5 | +18 | $7.0K | $2.6K | 1 Jul 2027 | Yes35¢No66¢ |
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7d | 24h volume | Liquidity | Closes | Paper trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1470+ | 48% | +6.0 | +11 | $2.9K | $2.2K | 1 Jul 2027 | Yes48¢No53¢ |
| 1480+ | 18% | −1.5 | −14 | $2.5K | $2.4K | 1 Jul 2027 | Yes18¢No82¢ |
| 1490+ | 11% | −2.5 | −2.0 | $257 | $3.2K | 1 Jul 2027 | Yes11¢No90¢ |
| 1500+ | 6.6% | −1.6 | 0 | $50 | $10.5K | 1 Jul 2027 | Yes6.6¢No93¢ |
| 1510+ | 2.9% | −0.5 | −1.8 | $26 | $642 | 1 Jul 2027 | Yes2.9¢No97¢ |
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7d | 24h volume | Liquidity | Closes | Paper trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $1.50-$1.75 | 61% | +14 | — | $1.9K | $855 | 1 Dec 2026 | Yes61¢No40¢ |
| $1.25-$1.50 | 39% | −8.5 | — | $1.9K | $875 | 1 Dec 2026 | Yes39¢No62¢ |
| $2.00+ | 7.3% | −39 | — | $620 | $804 | 1 Dec 2026 | Yes7.3¢No93¢ |
| $1.75-$2.00 | 2.2% | −42 | — | $451 | $760 | 1 Dec 2026 | Yes2.2¢No98¢ |
| <$1.00 | 2.2% | −41 | — | $310 | $536 | 1 Dec 2026 | Yes2.2¢No98¢ |
| $1.00-$1.25 | <1% | −44 | — | $293 | $661 | 1 Dec 2026 | Yes0.55¢No99.45¢ |
| GPU rental prices (H100) end of October? | $3.00+ | $59.1K | 2 Nov 2026 |
| GPU rental prices (B200) end of October? | $6.50+ | $54.0K | 2 Nov 2026 |
| GPU rental prices (H200) end of October? | $5.50+ | $78.8K | 2 Nov 2026 |
| OpenRouter token usage week of October 26? | 185-195T | $27.0K | 2 Nov 2026 |
| When will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released? | No release by November 1 | $332K | 2 Nov 2026 |
| # of ChatGPT Outage Days in October 2026? | 5+ | $42.3K | 1 Nov 2026 |
Prices are read from Polymarket's public markets and trades and describe what traders pay, not a forecast or recommendation by Vultax.
Your notebook
Market rulesCloses 31 Dec 2026, 17:00 UTCRead 5 Nov 2026, 09:33 UTC
Same as the market so far
Your scenario
61.5%
Market 61.5% · +0.0 pts
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