Analytics
Yes is at 32.5%, down 26 points from 59% when the market opened on 5 Jun 2026.
Across the 143 daily closes on record from 5 Jun 2026 to 30 Oct 2026 (6 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 78.5% on 30 Sep 2026 and the lowest 32.5% on 30 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 46.5%; a month before, 78.5%. Its largest one-day move was 28 points down, to 50.5% on 1 Oct 2026.
Anthropic ranks second of the 15 outcomes in “Which company has best AI model end of 2026?”. Google leads at 58.5%; OpenAI is at 5.7%.
$16.32K traded in the last 24 hours, out of $477.9K since listing. The order book holds $38.55K, with a 1.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 500 trades, $5.58K bought Yes and $8.61K bought No; the largest was a $1.04K sell of No at 57.8¢.
The largest Yes position is 0x84828283773829 with 16.6K shares; the largest No position is Indigo Signal 2966 with 155.1K. Ten wallets hold 61.6% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 31 Dec 2026, 63 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 30, 1:29 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 143 points, 5 Jun 2026 – 30 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 5 Jun 2026 | 59.0% |
| 30 Oct 2026 | 32.5% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 155.11K |
| anoin123 | No | 19.15K |
| 0x84828283773829 | Yes | 16.56K |
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-2026
3 more outcomes, none above 0.1%.
| mewmew1 | Yes | 9.64K |
| TheWindKnowsmyName | Yes | 8.02K |
| dfsahg1 | Yes | 8.02K |
| Bold Raven 8EFB | Yes | 6.92K |
| aliaspopeye | Yes | 6.55K |
| MEPP | Yes | 6.5K |
| Ditto321 | Yes | 6.41K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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