Analytics
The cohort performance summary keeps its original period. These positions are a separate Polymarket observation and do not establish complete position history.
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| Market | Outcome | Size | Avg price | Position value | PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 55% or higher? | Yes | 3.64K | $0.793 | $3.27K | +$387.06 |
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This wallet's markets have not resolved into a category mix in the public profile data yet.
| Market | Side | Size | Price | Notional | When |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Will the highest score achieved by a SpaceXAI Grok model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 45% or higher?No | buy | 1.26K | $0.109 | $137.81 | 17m ago |
| No |
| 5.24K |
| $0.417 |
| $3.09K |
| +$907.63 |
| Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut on the Arena Leaderboard at a score of at least 1500? | No | 2.94K | $0.613 | $2.16K | +$357.51 |
 Will the next Grok model (4.6+) debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 35% or higher? | Yes | 1.57K | $0.983 | $1.52K | -$25.41 |
| Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut on the Arena Leaderboard at a score of at least 1480? | No | 5K | $0.252 | $1.32K | +$63.9 |
| Will the next Grok model (4.6+) debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 50% or higher? | No | 1.18K | $0.988 | $1.15K | -$16.64 |
 Will another contestant win The Bachelorette Season 22? | Yes | 1.22K | $0.048 | $1.06K | +$996.77 |
| Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut on the Arena Leaderboard at a score of at least 1510? | No | 1.15K | $0.820 | $1.03K | +$86.5 |
 OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027? | Yes | 2.43K | $0.263 | $667.18 | +$29.45 |
 Will any AI model reach 1520 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026? | Yes | 611.23 | $0.800 | $605.12 | +$116.21 |
 Will Anthropic have the best AI Agent at the end of October 2026? | Yes | 682.57 | $0.749 | $580.18 | +$68.81 |
| Will the next Grok model (4.6+) debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 55% or higher? | No | 580.98 | $0.981 | $568.78 | -$1.08 |
 Will Trump deport 400-500k people? | Yes | 981.39 | $0.101 | $539.76 | +$440.82 |
 U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "South Korea" before 2027? | No | 539.83 | $0.737 | $461.82 | +$64.23 |
 Rihanna confirmed pregnant in 2026? | No | 543.52 | $0.339 | $442.97 | +$258.83 |
 Will any AI model reach 1600 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026? | No | 463.87 | $0.744 | $404.49 | +$59.27 |
| Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher? | Yes | 739.87 | $0.525 | $388.43 | -$0.44 |
| U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Indonesia" before 2027? | No | 431 | $0.683 | $372.82 | +$78.37 |
| Will OpenAI's Astra model debut as #1? (Text Arena) | No | 354.08 | $0.805 | $310.17 | +$25.06 |
| Will the highest score achieved by a SpaceXAI Grok model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 45% or higher? | No | 1.26K | $0.109 | $250.95 | +$113.14 |
| Will the next Grok model (4.6+) debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 45% or higher? | No | 245.19 | $0.971 | $229.25 | -$8.73 |
 Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1495? | No | 949.12 | $0.380 | $213.55 | -$147.58 |
| Will Doug Mason win The Bachelorette Season 22? | Yes | 1.89K | $0.394 | $190.42 | -$553.24 |
| U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Argentina" before 2027? | No | 202.85 | $0.662 | $181.55 | +$47.14 |
| Will Trump deport 500-600k people? | Yes | 976.08 | $0.099 | $136.65 | +$40.34 |
Will the next Grok model (4.6+) debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 45% or higher?No| buy |
| 245.19 |
| $0.971 |
| $237.98 |
| 18m ago |
| Will the next Grok model (4.6+) debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 50% or higher?No | buy | 1.18K | $0.988 | $1.17K | 18m ago |
| Will the next Grok model (4.6+) debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 55% or higher?No | buy | 500 | $0.988 | $494 | 18m ago |
| Will the next Grok model (4.6+) debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 35% or higher?Yes | buy | 1.57K | $0.983 | $1.54K | 19m ago |
| Will the next Grok model (4.6+) debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 40% or higher?No | buy | 7.17 | $0.721 | $5.17 | 19m ago |
| Will the next Grok model (4.6+) debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 45% or higher?Yes | sell | 40 | $0.048 | $1.9 | 19m ago |
| Will the next Grok model (4.6+) debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 40% or higher?No | buy | 69 | $0.676 | $46.62 | 20m ago |
| Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut on the Arena Leaderboard at a score of at least 1480?Yes | buy | 171.79 | $0.631 | $108.42 | 2h ago |
| Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 60% or higher?No | buy | 929.42 | $0.995 | $924.33 | 1d ago |
| Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 60% or higher?No | buy | 25.72 | $0.990 | $25.46 | 1d ago |
| Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 50% or higher?No | sell | 2.75K | $0.002 | $4.66 | 1d ago |
| Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut on the Arena Leaderboard at a score of at least 1480?No | buy | 708.47 | $0.331 | $234.31 | 1d ago |
| Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut on the Arena Leaderboard at a score of at least 1490?No | buy | 759.46 | $0.495 | $376.24 | 1d ago |
| Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut on the Arena Leaderboard at a score of at least 1510?No | buy | 425 | $0.880 | $374 | 1d ago |
| Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut on the Arena Leaderboard at a score of at least 1500?No | buy | 1.38K | $0.747 | $1.03K | 1d ago |
| Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 55% or higher?Yes | buy | 279 | $0.846 | $236.13 | 1d ago |
| Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 50% or higher?No | buy | 1.13K | $0.059 | $67.34 | 2d ago |
| Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut on the Arena Leaderboard at a score of at least 1480?No | buy | 443.38 | $0.350 | $155.18 | 2d ago |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI Agent at the end of October 2026?Yes | buy | 682.57 | $0.749 | $511.37 | 2d ago |
| Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher?No | buy | 75 | $0.480 | $36 | 2d ago |
| Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher?No | buy | 158.77 | $0.470 | $74.62 | 2d ago |
 Will Meta have the #1 AI model at the end of September 2026?Yes | buy | 1.81K | $0.036 | $66.2 | 2d ago |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 45% or higher?Yes | sell | 501.55 | $0.831 | $417.04 | 2d ago |
| Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 40% or higher?Yes | sell | 206.9 | $0.982 | $203.28 | 2d ago |
| Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 40% or higher?Yes | sell | 5.24 | $0.998 | $5.23 | 2d ago |
| Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut on the Arena Leaderboard at a score of at least 1490?No | buy | 911.9 | $0.418 | $380.78 | 2d ago |
| Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut on the Arena Leaderboard at a score of at least 1480?No | buy | 393 | $0.310 | $121.83 | 3d ago |
| OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?Yes | buy | 1.21K | $0.297 | $359 | 3d ago |
| Will any AI model reach 1520 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?No | buy | 373.4 | $0.056 | $20.91 | 4d ago |
| Will the next Claude Opus model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 45% or higher?Yes | buy | 78.93 | $0.950 | $74.96 | 4d ago |
| Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut on the Arena Leaderboard at a score of at least 1510?No | buy | 731.99 | $0.785 | $574.45 | 4d ago |
| Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut on the Arena Leaderboard at a score of at least 1500?No | buy | 652 | $0.554 | $361 | 4d ago |
| Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut on the Arena Leaderboard at a score of at least 1510?Yes | buy | 5 | $0.546 | $2.73 | 5d ago |
| Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut on the Arena Leaderboard at a score of at least 1490?No | sell | 100 | $0.350 | $35 | 5d ago |
| Will the next Mythos-Class model debut with a Humanity's Last Exam score of 50% or higher?Yes | buy | 283.1 | $0.996 | $282.02 | 5d ago |
| Will the next Mythos-Class model debut with a Humanity's Last Exam score of 45% or higher?Yes | buy | 196.91 | $0.996 | $196.06 | 5d ago |
| Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut on the Arena Leaderboard at a score of at least 1490?Yes | buy | 759 | $0.495 | $375.5 | 5d ago |
| Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 55% or higher?No | buy | 291.8 | $0.106 | $30.79 | 6d ago |
| Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1530 by December 31?Yes | sell | 27.6 | $0.404 | $11.14 | 6d ago |
| Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1540 by December 31?Yes | sell | 651.85 | $0.245 | $159.7 | 6d ago |
| Will OpenAI's Astra model debut as #1? (Text Arena)No | buy | 354.08 | $0.805 | $285.12 | 6d ago |
| Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut on the Arena Leaderboard at a score of at least 1490?No | buy | 2.7K | $0.437 | $1.18K | 6d ago |
| Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut on the Arena Leaderboard at a score of at least 1480?No | buy | 2.56K | $0.235 | $603.37 | 6d ago |
 Will the highest score achieved by an OpenAI model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher?No | buy | 228.22 | $0.516 | $117.67 | 6d ago |
| Will the highest score achieved by an OpenAI model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 50% or higher?No | buy | 826.69 | $0.082 | $68.03 | 6d ago |
| Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 50% or higher?No | buy | 250.41 | $0.170 | $42.46 | 6d ago |
| Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 60% or higher?No | buy | 67.17 | $0.870 | $58.44 | 6d ago |
| Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 50% or higher?No | buy | 419.78 | $0.035 | $14.81 | 7d ago |
| Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 50% or higher?Yes | sell | 580.23 | $0.980 | $568.61 | 7d ago |