Atlanta Braves: Up 1.3 points in 24 hours, 3.3× its normal daily swing. 1 other outcome moved by more than noise.
Up 1.3 points in 24 hours, 3.3× its normal daily swing.
Up 2.7 points in a week, 2.6× a normal week for this contract. At its highest in 30 days.
Little change: +0.3 points on the day against a normal daily swing of 0.4. At its highest in 30 days.
Little change: +0.1 points on the day against a normal daily swing of 0.4.
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Each line is the price of one outcome on Polymarket, read as a probability. Hover or tap to read every line on the same day.
| Outcome | 30 days ago | Now |
|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Dodgers | 32% | 31% |
| Milwaukee Brewers | 11% | 15% |
| New York Yankees | 9.5% | 11% |
| Tampa Bay Rays | 6.9% | 9.6% |
| Atlanta Braves | 7.0% | 6.9% |
| San Diego Padres | 2.5% | 5.5% |
Every box is one Polymarket event in this room. The bigger the box, the more was traded in the last 24 hours.
The same question on both venues: World Series winner.
Gap = Polymarket minus Kalshi, in probability points. Kalshi is read at the middle of its quote. The two contracts settle on their own rules and fees, so a gap is a reading, not a free trade. Kalshi market
Vultax Research: what Kalshi and Polymarket price gaps are worth after fees
The order book behind “MLB World Series Champion 2026”, read a minute ago.
| Outcome | Bid / ask | Within 2¢ | $1K pays | $10K pays |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Dodgers | 30¢/31¢ | $30.3K · $4.2K | 31¢+0.0 | |
| Milwaukee Brewers | 15¢/15¢ | $555 · $1.9K | 16¢+0.8 | |
| New York Yankees | 10¢/11¢ | $9.1K · $1.9K | 11¢+0.1 | |
| Tampa Bay Rays | 9.5¢/9.6¢ | $457 · $1.1K | 11¢+1.0 | |
| Atlanta Braves | 6.8¢/6.9¢ | $301 · $570 | 8.3¢+1.4 |
Average price a buy order of that size would pay against the offers resting now, and how many points that is above the best offer. “Within 2¢” is the dollars resting near the touch on the bid and the offer side.
Vultax Research: how much size prediction market order books hold
Biggest holders in this market's two leading outcomes, valued at the current price. Open a name for the wallet's record on Vultax.
7 more positions in this market
Who holds the most on each side, valued at the current price, with each wallet's record one click away.
Vultax Research: how Polymarket trader leaderboards compare
Prints of $1,000 and more in the room's busiest markets, newest first.
9 more large trades in this room
Each print of $1,000 and more as it happens: who, which side, what price.
Every move in this room that cleared Vi IQ's "notable" line, stamped when it happened. Vultax has recorded this room since 20 Sep 2026.
Up 1.3 points in 24 hours, 3.3× its normal daily swing.
Up 3.8 points in a week, 3.6× a normal week for this contract. At its highest in 30 days.
On Polymarket, “MLB World Series Champion 2026” has Los Angeles Dodgers in front at 31%, on $26.3K traded across that market in the last 24 hours. This room reads 2,331 open markets across 163 Polymarket events, which together traded $86.3K over the same 24 hours and hold $6.3M of resting liquidity. Prices as of 21 Sep 2026, 06:29 UTC.
The championship, team by team
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7d | 24h volume | Liquidity | Closes | Paper trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Dodgers | 31% | — | −1.0 | $209 | $121K | 31 Oct 2026 | Yes31¢No70¢ |
| Milwaukee Brewers |
League champions, divisions and who gets in
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7d | 24h volume | Liquidity | Closes | Paper trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chicago Cubs | >99% | +0.5 | +0.9 | $0 | $12.1K | 28 Sep 2026 | Yes99¢No0.6¢ |
MVP, Cy Young, rookies and the statistical races
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7d | 24h volume | Liquidity | Closes | Paper trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pete Crow-Armstrong | >99% | 0 | +0.7 | $1.0K | $10.4K | 13 Nov 2026 | Yes99¢No0.9¢ |
The slate, by money traded
| Side | Chance | 24h | 7d | 24h volume | Liquidity | Closes | Paper trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minnesota Twins | 52% | +1.0 | — | $5.9K | $108K | 29 Sep 2026 | Buy52¢ |
Largest price changes in points, counted only on markets that traded at least $1,000 in the same 24 hours. The number beside each move is that market’s 24-hour volume.
Change in probability points since the same time the previous day
The most recently settled Polymarket markets on this subject, with the outcome that paid and the total traded over the market’s life. A settled market is the only place a prediction market can be checked against what happened.
| Market | Resolved as | Total volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|
| Milwaukee Brewers vs. Baltimore Orioles | Milwaukee Brewers | $826K | 21 Sep 2026 |
| Detroit Tigers vs. Chicago White Sox | Chicago White Sox | $597K | 21 Sep 2026 |
| MLB: 2026 NL East Champion | Atlanta Braves | $528K | 21 Sep 2026 |
| Athletics vs. Cleveland Guardians | Cleveland Guardians | $680K | 20 Sep 2026 |
| San Francisco Giants vs. Los Angeles Dodgers | Los Angeles Dodgers | $429K | 20 Sep 2026 |
This room reads every open Polymarket market tagged to Major League Baseball and sorts it into the World Series, the pennants and the postseason field, awards and statistical leaders, and the games on the slate. The championship market is priced beside the same question on Kalshi.
A price is the cost of a contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens, so 62¢ reads as a 62% chance. In a market with many named outcomes the prices should add up to roughly 100%; a gap is the venue's spread and fees, not a free lunch.
Baseball's postseason is short-series play, so the championship market moves in steps: a team's price roughly doubles each time it survives a round, and a wild-card team that was priced as a long shot can lead the board a fortnight later. Through the regular season the same market mostly tracks playoff odds and the health of each rotation.
Each market resolves on its own written rules, including the deadline, the resolution source and what counts as the event. Two markets on the same subject with different wording can and do trade at different prices, so read the rules on the market page before comparing them.
| 15% |
| 0 |
| −1.0 |
| $1.7K |
| $143K |
| 31 Oct 2026 |
| Yes15¢No85¢ |
| New York Yankees | 11% | — | +1.0 | $475 | $120K | 31 Oct 2026 | Yes11¢No90¢ |
| Tampa Bay Rays | 9.6% | 0 | 0 | $1.8K | $109K | 31 Oct 2026 | Yes9.6¢No90¢ |
| Atlanta Braves | 6.9% | +1.3 | 0 | $4.9K | $124K | 31 Oct 2026 | Yes6.9¢No93¢ |
| San Diego Padres | 5.5% | 0 | +2.7 | $6.5K | $100K | 31 Oct 2026 | Yes5.5¢No94¢ |
| Chicago Cubs | 5.5% | — | +0.8 | $2.1K | $113K | 31 Oct 2026 | Yes5.5¢No95¢ |
| Boston Red Sox | 5.1% | −0.5 | 0 | $3.0K | $110K | 31 Oct 2026 | Yes5.1¢No95¢ |
| Philadelphia Phillies | 4.7% | — | −1.6 | $242 | $97.3K | 31 Oct 2026 | Yes4.7¢No95¢ |
| Cleveland Guardians | 3.1% | 0 | +0.8 | $1.9K | $119K | 31 Oct 2026 | Yes3.1¢No97¢ |
| Houston Astros | 2.1% | 0 | −1.1 | $293 | $103K | 31 Oct 2026 | Yes2.1¢No98¢ |
| Texas Rangers | 2.1% | −0.9 | +1.2 | $247 | $110K | 31 Oct 2026 | Yes2.1¢No98¢ |
5 further priced outcomes in this market are not shown.
| Philadelphia Phillies | 99% | +0.7 | +1.0 | $0 | $14.6K | 28 Sep 2026 | Yes99¢No1.5¢ |
| Cleveland Guardians | 98% | +5.1 | +33 | $761 | $10.8K | 28 Sep 2026 | Yes98¢No2.3¢ |
| San Diego Padres | 98% | +1.8 | +23 | $98 | $13.6K | 28 Sep 2026 | Yes98¢No2.3¢ |
| Chicago White Sox | 95% | +4.0 | +16 | $40 | $8.8K | 28 Sep 2026 | Yes95¢No5.5¢ |
| Texas Rangers | 60% | −3.5 | +27 | $70 | $5.5K | 28 Sep 2026 | Yes60¢No41¢ |
| Houston Astros | 46% | −1.0 | −28 | $966 | $6.7K | 28 Sep 2026 | Yes46¢No54¢ |
| Toronto Blue Jays | 3.5% | −0.9 | −38 | $698 | $8.6K | 28 Sep 2026 | Yes3.5¢No96¢ |
3 further priced outcomes in this market are not shown.
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7d | 24h volume | Liquidity | Closes | Paper trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tampa Bay Rays | 25% | 0 | +2.8 | $67 | $71.4K | 1 Nov 2026 | Yes25¢No76¢ |
| New York Yankees | 23% | +0.5 | −3.0 | $8 | $63.3K | 1 Nov 2026 | Yes23¢No78¢ |
| Cleveland Guardians | 15% | +4.3 | +7.5 | $802 | $77.0K | 1 Nov 2026 | Yes15¢No85¢ |
| Boston Red Sox | 11% | 0 | −0.9 | $30 | $70.4K | 1 Nov 2026 | Yes11¢No89¢ |
| Chicago White Sox | 8.8% | 0 | −1.9 | $80 | $72.5K | 1 Nov 2026 | Yes8.8¢No91¢ |
| Houston Astros | 7.3% | −2.2 | −2.9 | $1.2K | $78.2K | 1 Nov 2026 | Yes7.3¢No93¢ |
| Texas Rangers | 6.4% | +0.7 | +4.3 | $244 | $72.5K | 1 Nov 2026 | Yes6.4¢No94¢ |
| Toronto Blue Jays | 2.1% | — | −1.9 | $50 | $48.6K | 1 Nov 2026 | Yes2.1¢No98¢ |
2 further priced outcomes in this market are not shown.
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7d | 24h volume | Liquidity | Closes | Paper trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Dodgers | 40% | +0.5 | +0.5 | $0 | $162K | 1 Nov 2026 | Yes40¢No61¢ |
| Milwaukee Brewers | 25% | — | −1.8 | $0 | $156K | 1 Nov 2026 | Yes25¢No75¢ |
| Atlanta Braves | 11% | — | −1.5 | $344 | $134K | 1 Nov 2026 | Yes11¢No90¢ |
| Chicago Cubs | 9.5% | — | +1.5 | $0 | $140K | 1 Nov 2026 | Yes9.5¢No91¢ |
| Philadelphia Phillies | 8.5% | — | −1.0 | $394 | $137K | 1 Nov 2026 | Yes8.5¢No92¢ |
| San Diego Padres | 7.5% | 0 | +1.7 | $0 | $51.5K | 1 Nov 2026 | Yes7.5¢No93¢ |
| Arizona Diamondbacks | 1.4% | −0.5 | −0.7 | $411 | $66.6K | 1 Nov 2026 | Yes1.4¢No99¢ |
| Shohei Ohtani | <1% | 0 | −0.8 | $1.4K | $4.2K | 13 Nov 2026 | Yes0.9¢No99¢ |
| Juan Soto | <1% | — | — | $0 | $4.9K | 13 Nov 2026 | Yes0.1¢No100¢ |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. | <1% | — | — | $0 | $6.1K | 13 Nov 2026 | Yes0.1¢No100¢ |
| Mookie Betts | <1% | — | — | $0 | $5.6K | 13 Nov 2026 | Yes0.1¢No100¢ |
| Bryce Harper | <1% | — | — | $0 | $4.0K | 13 Nov 2026 | Yes0.1¢No100¢ |
12 further priced outcomes in this market are not shown.
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7d | 24h volume | Liquidity | Closes | Paper trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Venable | 58% | −0.5 | −7.2 | $201 | $1.9K | 19 Dec 2026 | Yes58¢No42¢ |
| Kevin Cash | 39% | −1.3 | +13 | $132 | $2.6K | 19 Dec 2026 | Yes39¢No61¢ |
| Stephen Vogt | 2.7% | −0.5 | +1.4 | $102 | $1.3K | 19 Dec 2026 | Yes2.7¢No97¢ |
| Derek Shelton | 1.1% | — | 0 | $95 | $1.8K | 19 Dec 2026 | Yes1.1¢No99¢ |
| Skip Schumaker | 1.1% | 0 | 0 | $95 | $1.7K | 19 Dec 2026 | Yes1.1¢No99¢ |
| Craig Albernaz | <1% | 0 | 0 | $95 | $1.9K | 19 Dec 2026 | Yes0.8¢No99¢ |
9 further priced outcomes in this market are not shown.
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7d | 24h volume | Liquidity | Closes | Paper trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Logan Webb | 5.1% | +1.8 | +4.3 | $20 | $268 | 28 Sep 2026 | Yes5.1¢No95¢ |
| Max Fried | 3.3% | 0 | 0 | $150 | $295 | 28 Sep 2026 | Yes3.3¢No97¢ |
| Tarik Skubal | 2.9% | 0 | 0 | $0 | $285 | 28 Sep 2026 | Yes2.9¢No97¢ |
| Nick Pivetta | 2.3% | 0 | 0 | $0 | $185 | 28 Sep 2026 | Yes2.3¢No98¢ |
| Paul Skenes | 1.8% | 0 | 0 | $289 | $321 | 28 Sep 2026 | Yes1.8¢No98¢ |
| Dylan Cease | 1.4% | −1.1 | −1.8 | $330 | $340 | 28 Sep 2026 | Yes1.4¢No99¢ |
29 further priced outcomes in this market are not shown.
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7d | 24h volume | Liquidity | Closes | Paper trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luis Arraez | 49% | −0.5 | −2.5 | $571 | $1.4K | 28 Sep 2026 | Yes49¢No52¢ |
| Yordan Alvarez | 37% | +12 | +26 | $199 | $1.1K | 28 Sep 2026 | Yes37¢No64¢ |
| Freddie Freeman | 3.3% | 0 | 0 | $111 | $428 | 28 Sep 2026 | Yes3.3¢No97¢ |
| Otto Lopez | 3.3% | −2.3 | −7.5 | $42 | $988 | 28 Sep 2026 | Yes3.3¢No97¢ |
| Giancarlo Stanton | <1% | — | 0 | $0 | $941 | 28 Sep 2026 | Yes0.9¢No99¢ |
| Drake Baldwin | <1% | 0 | 0 | $0 | $2.3K | 28 Sep 2026 | Yes0.9¢No99¢ |
25 further priced outcomes in this market are not shown.
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7d | 24h volume | Liquidity | Closes | Paper trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacob Misiorowski | 42% | −24 | −7.1 | $464 | $654 | — | Yes42¢No58¢ |
| Cam Schlittler | 4.2% | +0.7 | 0 | $0 | $706 | — | Yes4.2¢No96¢ |
| Jesús Luzardo | 4.1% | −0.7 | −1.1 | $0 | $828 | — | Yes4.1¢No96¢ |
| Dylan Cease | 3.1% | −15 | −37 | $0 | $17.7K | — | Yes3.1¢No97¢ |
| Cristopher Sánchez | 2.1% | −2.3 | −1.7 | $0 | $887 | — | Yes2.1¢No98¢ |
| Sonny Gray | 1.8% | — | 0 | $0 | $692 | — | Yes1.8¢No98¢ |
22 further priced outcomes in this market are not shown.
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7d | 24h volume | Liquidity | Closes | Paper trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Schwarber | 55% | −8.0 | −27 | $656 | $2.0K | 11 Oct 2026 | Yes55¢No45¢ |
| Junior Caminero | 3% | −1.6 | −1.8 | $5 | $1.7K | 11 Oct 2026 | Yes3¢No97¢ |
| Matt Olson | <1% | — | −0.6 | $0 | $1.2K | 11 Oct 2026 | Yes0.9¢No99¢ |
| Yordan Alvarez | <1% | −1.2 | 0 | $2 | $1.8K | 11 Oct 2026 | Yes0.5¢No99¢ |
| Ben Rice | <1% | 0 | 0 | $0 | $1.4K | 11 Oct 2026 | Yes0.4¢No100¢ |
| Aaron Judge | <1% | — | — | $0 | $2.0K | 11 Oct 2026 | Yes0.1¢No100¢ |
19 further priced outcomes in this market are not shown.
13 further markets matched this board and are not shown.
| San Francisco Giants | 49% | — | — | $5.9K | $108K | 29 Sep 2026 | Buy49¢ |
| Side | Chance | 24h | 7d | 24h volume | Liquidity | Closes | Paper trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seattle Mariners | 56% | — | — | $5.0K | $8.3K | 30 Sep 2026 | Buy56¢ |
| Houston Astros | 45% | −1.5 | — | $5.0K | $8.3K | 30 Sep 2026 | Buy45¢ |
| Side | Chance | 24h | 7d | 24h volume | Liquidity | Closes | Paper trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toronto Blue Jays | 51% | +2.0 | — | $748 | $98.7K | 28 Sep 2026 | Buy51¢ |
| Baltimore Orioles | 50% | — | — | $748 | $98.7K | 28 Sep 2026 | Buy50¢ |
| Side | Chance | 24h | 7d | 24h volume | Liquidity | Closes | Paper trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New York Yankees | 57% | — | — | $2.0K | $35.0K | 29 Sep 2026 | Buy57¢ |
| Tampa Bay Rays | 43% | — | — | $2.0K | $35.0K | 29 Sep 2026 | Buy43¢ |
| Side | Chance | 24h | 7d | 24h volume | Liquidity | Closes | Paper trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Dodgers | 57% | — | — | $1.2K | $6.7K | 30 Sep 2026 | Buy57¢ |
| San Diego Padres | 43% | +4.0 | — | $1.2K | $6.7K | 30 Sep 2026 | Buy43¢ |
| Side | Chance | 24h | 7d | 24h volume | Liquidity | Closes | Paper trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Detroit Tigers | 59% | — | — | $432 | $103K | 28 Sep 2026 | Buy59¢ |
| Washington Nationals | 42% | −2.0 | — | $432 | $103K | 28 Sep 2026 | Buy42¢ |
| Side | Chance | 24h | 7d | 24h volume | Liquidity | Closes | Paper trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chicago White Sox | 54% | +1.0 | — | $224 | $7.3K | 29 Sep 2026 | Buy54¢ |
| Kansas City Royals | 47% | — | — | $224 | $7.3K | 29 Sep 2026 | Buy47¢ |
| Side | Chance | 24h | 7d | 24h volume | Liquidity | Closes | Paper trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New York Yankees | 51% | — | — | $202 | $3.6K | 29 Sep 2026 | Buy51¢ |
| Tampa Bay Rays | 49% | +4.5 | — | $202 | $3.6K | 29 Sep 2026 | Buy49¢ |
| Side | Chance | 24h | 7d | 24h volume | Liquidity | Closes | Paper trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Philadelphia Phillies | 52% | — | — | $188 | $7.5K | 29 Sep 2026 | Buy52¢ |
| Milwaukee Brewers | 49% | −3.0 | — | $188 | $7.5K | 29 Sep 2026 | Buy49¢ |
| Side | Chance | 24h | 7d | 24h volume | Liquidity | Closes | Paper trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atlanta Braves | 65% | — | — | $119 | $7.6K | 29 Sep 2026 | Buy65¢ |
| Cincinnati Reds | 36% | −3.0 | — | $119 | $7.6K | 29 Sep 2026 | Buy36¢ |
66 further markets matched this board and are not shown.
Change in probability points since the same time the previous week
| New York Yankees vs. Arizona Diamondbacks | Arizona Diamondbacks | $509K | 20 Sep 2026 |
| Miami Marlins vs. San Diego Padres | San Diego Padres | $298K | 20 Sep 2026 |
| Minnesota Twins vs. Los Angeles Angels | Minnesota Twins | $355K | 20 Sep 2026 |
| Washington Nationals vs. St. Louis Cardinals | St. Louis Cardinals | $202K | 20 Sep 2026 |
| Seattle Mariners vs. Colorado Rockies | Seattle Mariners | $449K | 20 Sep 2026 |
Prices are read from Polymarket's public markets and trades and describe what traders pay, not a forecast or recommendation by Vultax.
