October 31: Down 2.0 points on the day, against a week that ran up 6.0: 2.0× its normal daily swing, the other way. 1 other outcome moved by more than noise.
Down 2.0 points on the day, against a week that ran up 6.0: 2.0× its normal daily swing, the other way.
Up 6.0 points in a week, 2.3× a normal week for this contract. At its highest in 30 days.
Trade NATO / Russia on paper, free
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Each line is the price of one outcome on Polymarket, read as a probability. Hover or tap to read every line on the same day.
| Outcome | 30 days ago | Now |
|---|---|---|
| December 31 | 25% | 33% |
| October 31 | 15% | 19% |
Dollars traded in the last 24 hours, event by event, with the outcome leading each one.
The order book behind “NATO x Russia military clash by...?”, read a minute ago.
| Outcome | Bid / ask | Within 2¢ | $1K pays | $10K pays |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31 | 32¢/33¢ | $46.7K · $9.9K | 33¢+0.0 | |
| October 31 | 18¢/19¢ | $34.8K · $10.9K | 19¢+0.0 |
Average price a buy order of that size would pay against the offers resting now, and how many points that is above the best offer. “Within 2¢” is the dollars resting near the touch on the bid and the offer side.
Vultax Research: how much size prediction market order books hold
Polymarket publishes no view counts. Comments are the nearest thing to a crowd, and they do not always follow the money.
Biggest holders in this market's two leading outcomes, valued at the current price. Open a name for the wallet's record on Vultax.
7 more positions in this market
Who holds the most on each side, valued at the current price, with each wallet's record one click away.
Vultax Research: how Polymarket trader leaderboards compare
Prints of $1,000 and more in the room's busiest markets, newest first.
9 more large trades in this room
Each print of $1,000 and more as it happens: who, which side, what price.
Every move in this room that cleared Vi IQ's "notable" line, stamped when it happened. Vultax has recorded this room since 22 Sep 2026.
7 earlier moves on record
The dated record of every meaningful move in this room: what moved, by how much against its own normal, and whether money came with it.
On Polymarket, “NATO x Russia military clash by...?” prices it at 33% by December 31 and 19% by October 31, on $111K traded across that market in the last 24 hours. 4 earlier deadlines have settled, 0 of them Yes. This room reads 24 open markets across 17 Polymarket events, which together traded $171K over the same 24 hours and hold $762K of resting liquidity. Prices as of 23 Sep 2026, 08:03 UTC.
Polymarket asks the question again with each new deadline. Every rung below is one contract: settled rungs paid on their own window, open rungs are the forecast for theirs.
Wikipedia reads of Russia–NATO relations, Operation Eastern Sentry and the 2025 Poland drone incursion, per day. Bars are reads per day; the line is the lead rung's price on the same days. A move that arrives with a spike in reads is a repricing on news; one without is the market working alone.
Force used between NATO and Russian militaries, a Russian invasion of an ally, action against an EU state
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7d | 24h volume | Liquidity | Closes | Paper trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31 | 33% | — | +6.0 | $32.0K | $169K | 1 Jan 2027 | Yes33¢No68¢ |
| October 31 |
A formal request for consultations, and the collective-defence clause itself
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7d | 24h volume | Liquidity | Closes | Paper trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NATO article 5 before 2027? | 5.7% | −1.1 | 0 | $13.3K | $29.8K | 1 Jan 2027 | Yes5.7¢No94¢ |
Whether the US withdraws, a member leaves, Ukraine joins, and the Greenland questions the alliance inherits
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7d | 24h volume | Liquidity | Closes | Paper trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31 | 2.1% | 0 | 0 | $1.2K | $47.4K | 1 Jan 2027 | Yes2.1¢No98¢ |
Allied troops in Ukraine, peacekeeping, sabotage blamed on Russia and the wider theatre
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7d | 24h volume | Liquidity | Closes | Paper trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Russia invade another country in 2026? | 7.0% | +0.5 | +1.5 | $6.7K | $63.4K | 1 Jan 2027 | Yes7.0¢No93¢ |
Largest price changes in points, counted only on markets that traded at least $1,000 in the same 24 hours. The number beside each move is that market’s 24-hour volume.
Change in probability points since the same time the previous day
The most recently settled Polymarket markets on this subject, with the outcome that paid and the total traded over the market’s life. A settled market is the only place a prediction market can be checked against what happened.
| Market | Resolved as | Total volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|
| Greenland deal text released by...? | September 23 | $36.9K | 22 Sep 2026 |
| Trump x Greenland deal signed by...? | September 23 | $1.1M | 22 Sep 2026 |
| NATO downs another Russian drone by...? | September 15 | $66.4K | 19 Sep 2026 |
| NATO downs another Russian drone by...? | August 31 | $491K | 23 Aug 2026 |
| Will Sweden join NATO by March 31? | Yes | $59.8K | 7 Mar 2024 |
The dated record behind the NATO / Russia markets, each entry sourced and read against what the lead market's rules count. Newest first.
Allied fighters downed a drone in Lithuanian airspace, the first shot down there. Officials said it likely carried explosives and may have entered from Belarus; Lithuania did not attribute it on the day. The clash rungs stayed open: an explosive one-way drone is a munition under the rules, and only a downed reconnaissance UAV counts on its own.
Source: Foreign PolicyDenmark summoned Russia's ambassador; Moscow said the helicopter had manoeuvred dangerously. Flares and warning shots are named in the clash market's rules as things that do not qualify.
Source: Foreign PolicyThis room reads every open Polymarket market tagged to NATO, and pins the questions that sit beside them under other tags: the rolling “NATO x Russia military clash by...?” ladder, whether Russia invades a NATO member or takes military action against an EU state, the next Article 4 request, Article 5, sabotage an EU government blames on Russia, and the alliance's own future, from a US withdrawal to Ukraine's membership and Greenland.
A price is the cost of a contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens, so 62¢ reads as a 62% chance. In a market with many named outcomes the prices should add up to roughly 100%; a gap is the venue's spread and fees, not a free lunch.
The lead market is a recurring question. Polymarket asks it with a deadline, and when the deadline passes without a qualifying encounter that rung resolves No and a later rung carries on, so the same question is asked again with a longer runway. Each rung's price is a probability for its own window only: “by December 31” should trade above “by October 31” because it contains it. The settled rungs on this page are the market's own record, and the count of Yes resolutions is its base rate.
The clash market's rules draw the line at the use of force between the two militaries: missile strikes, artillery, gunfire or other direct engagement. Airspace violations, warning shots, cyberattacks and collisions without weapons do not count, and neither does shooting down a one-way munition aimed at somebody else. Shooting down a reconnaissance drone does. That is how a summer of interceptions over Romania can sit beside a rung that resolved No.
Article 4 is a request for consultations: any member can ask the allies to meet when it believes its security is threatened, and the market resolves the moment a request is formally made. NATO's own list counts nine invocations between 2003 and September 2025. Article 5 is collective defence, invoked once, after the attacks of 11 September 2001. The two markets trade far apart because one is a meeting and the other is a war.
Each market resolves on its own written rules, including the deadline, the resolution source and what counts as the event. Two markets on the same subject with different wording can and do trade at different prices, so read the rules on the market page before comparing them.
Asked 6 times so far: 4 deadlines have settled, none of them Yes, and 2 are still open. A rung that reaches its deadline without a qualifying event resolves No and the question rolls to the next date.
Each step is a separate Polymarket question, read at its furthest open deadline so the steps compare on the longest window the venue prices. Mildest first.
| 19% |
| −2.0 |
| +6.0 |
| $78.6K |
| $150K |
| 1 Nov 2026 |
| Yes19¢No82¢ |
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7d | 24h volume | Liquidity | Closes | Paper trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31, 2026 | 6% | +0.5 | +0.5 | $20.8K | $53.0K | 31 Dec 2025 | Yes6¢No94¢ |
| September 30, 2026 | <1% | — | — | $0 | $14.4K | 1 Oct 2026 | Yes0.5¢No100¢ |
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7d | 24h volume | Liquidity | Closes | Paper trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31 | 21% | +2.5 | — | $12.7K | $24.9K | 1 Jan 2027 | Yes21¢No79¢ |
| September 30 | 2.1% | 0 | — | $1.5K | $45.9K | 1 Oct 2026 | Yes2.1¢No98¢ |
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7d | 24h volume | Liquidity | Closes | Paper trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will NATO countries clash with each other before 2027? | 4.5% | — | −0.9 | $21 | $24.1K | 1 Jan 2027 | Yes4.5¢No96¢ |
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7d | 24h volume | Liquidity | Closes | Paper trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31 | 50% | −3.0 | +17 | $0 | $882 | 1 Jan 2027 | Yes50¢No50¢ |
| October 31 | 22% | −1.0 | −4.0 | $238 | $9.1K | 1 Nov 2026 | Yes22¢No79¢ |
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7d | 24h volume | Liquidity | Closes | Paper trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NATO dissolves before 2027? | 1.6% | — | 0 | $524 | $17.3K | 1 Jan 2027 | Yes1.6¢No98¢ |
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7d | 24h volume | Liquidity | Closes | Paper trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ukraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027? | 4.5% | −2.0 | −1.5 | $141 | $20.5K | 1 Jan 2027 | Yes4.5¢No96¢ |
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7d | 24h volume | Liquidity | Closes | Paper trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31, 2026 | 3.4% | — | 0 | $116 | $15.4K | 1 Jan 2027 | Yes3.4¢No97¢ |
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7d | 24h volume | Liquidity | Closes | Paper trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ukraine joins NATO before 2027? | 3.8% | 0 | +1.4 | $0 | $28.1K | 1 Jan 2027 | Yes3.8¢No96¢ |
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7d | 24h volume | Liquidity | Closes | Paper trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31 | 65% | −2.0 | — | $461 | $3.0K | 1 Jan 2027 | Yes65¢No36¢ |
| October 31 | 40% | −14 | — | $2.0K | $4.1K | 1 Nov 2026 | Yes40¢No60¢ |
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7d | 24h volume | Liquidity | Closes | Paper trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 31 | 65% | — | — | $189 | $584 | 31 Oct 2026 | Yes65¢No35¢ |
| October 15 | 62% | — | — | $215 | $141 | 15 Oct 2026 | Yes62¢No38¢ |
| September 30 | 25% | — | — | $0 | $111 | 30 Sep 2026 | Yes25¢No75¢ |
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7d | 24h volume | Liquidity | Closes | Paper trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NATO troops fighting in Yemen before 2027? | 4.9% | 0 | — | $253 | $16.8K | 1 Jan 2027 | Yes4.9¢No95¢ |
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7d | 24h volume | Liquidity | Closes | Paper trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31, 2026 | 5.1% | −0.8 | −0.8 | $0 | $14.0K | 1 Jan 2027 | Yes5.1¢No95¢ |
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7d | 24h volume | Liquidity | Closes | Paper trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31 | 4.0% | — | — | $0 | $14.4K | 1 Jan 2027 | Yes4.0¢No96¢ |
Change in probability points since the same time the previous week
By 17 August Romania had logged 23 violations of its airspace in 2026 against 18 across 2022 to 2025, with a Romanian F-16's first interception in July and a Spanish F-18 downing a fourth drone near the Moldovan border in August. The by-August-31 clash rung resolved No all the same: one-way munitions aimed at Ukraine do not count on their own.
Source: ABC NewsThe North Atlantic Council said Russia bears full responsibility for violations it called dangerous and unacceptable, and pointed to integrated air and missile defence and the eastern flank from the Baltic to the Black Sea. A statement is not an Article 4 request.
Source: NATOThe charge failed to detonate. German authorities avoided naming Russia; reporting on US intelligence pointed at Moscow. This is the kind of event the sabotage market turns on: it resolves on a government blaming Russia, not on the act.
Source: Al JazeeraLeaders reaffirmed the 5%-of-GDP spending path to 2035 agreed at The Hague, pledged €70 billion of military support to Ukraine for the year with at least as much in 2027, and confirmed Albania as the 2027 host.
Source: Al JazeeraTwo people were injured and an apartment building caught fire. A crash is not an engagement, so the rules leave it out.
Source: ABC NewsAllied Air Command ran a counter-UAS scenario with Romanian and Portuguese F-16s, Lithuanian air defence, Spanish NASAMS and a Romanian Patriot battery under the eastern-flank vigilance activity that followed the 2025 incursions.
Source: NATO Allied Air Command release, via GlobalSecurityThree Russian fighters had spent about twelve minutes in Estonian airspace over the Gulf of Finland on 19 September. The North Atlantic Council met on Estonia's request: the ninth invocation of Article 4 since 2003, and the second in a fortnight.
Source: NATOAround twenty Russian drones crossed into Poland overnight and Polish and allied aircraft shot several down. Poland asked for consultations the same day. The clash market's first rung opened on 23 September, after the incident, so it never tested the rules.
Source: NATOBulgaria, Czechia, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania and Slovakia requested consultations together: the only joint invocation on NATO's list.
Source: NATOPrices are read from Polymarket's public markets and trades and describe what traders pay, not a forecast or recommendation by Vultax.
