Analytics
Yes is at 5%, down 15 points from 19.5% when the market opened on 6 Nov 2025.
Across the 330 daily closes on record from 6 Nov 2025 to 24 Oct 2026 (24 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 24.5% on 23 Nov 2025 and the lowest 4.3% on 9 Aug 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 4.7%; a month before, 5.5%. Its largest one-day move was 6.5 points up, to 24.5% on 23 Nov 2025.
$26.28 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $301.07K since listing. The order book holds $41.65K, with a 1.5% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 500 trades, $4.13K bought Yes and $124.94K bought No; the largest was a $14.4K buy of No at 96.0¢.
The largest Yes position is vsesoso with 52.6K shares; the largest No position is Vietnam7 with 59.7K. Ten wallets hold 89.1% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2027, 69 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 24, 7:02 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 330 points, 6 Nov 2025 – 24 Oct 2026, chart shows 0%–30%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 6 Nov 2025 | 19.5% |
| 24 Oct 2026 | 5.0% |
If any NATO member country invokes Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty at any time between November 5, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from NATO (nato.int), however a consensus of credible media will also suffice.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/nato-article-5-before-2027
| gorovi |
| No |
| 33.64K |
| LlamaLoco0000 | Yes | 28.41K |
| NeH | No | 23.82K |
| Trashbag | No | 12.73K |
| J3lcExePrd1KE5M | No | 11.97K |
| Aq4ExePrd22Jn | No | 8.27K |
| purplegatto | Yes | 5.65K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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