Analytics
Yes is at 28.5%, down 28 points from 56.5% when the market opened on 27 Jul 2026.
Across the 86 daily closes on record from 27 Jul 2026 to 24 Oct 2026 (4 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 59% on 25 Sep 2026 and the lowest 23.5% on 20 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 29.5%; a month before, 49%. Its largest one-day move was 24 points down, to 32.5% on 28 Jul 2026.
It is one of 2 markets under “Another NATO article 4 by...?”.
$236.72 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $16.48K since listing. The order book holds $21.75K, with a 1.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 364 trades, $1.76K bought Yes and $4.12K bought No.
The largest Yes position is GOLADS96 with 720 shares; the largest No position is StarMaster with 1K. Ten wallets hold 64.2% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2027, 70 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 24, 3:42 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 86 points, 27 Jul 2026 – 24 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 27 Jul 2026 | 56.5% |
| 24 Oct 2026 | 28.5% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| StarMaster | No | 1K |
| BalmyF | No | 769.18 |
| GOLADS96 | Yes | 720 |
NATO's Article 4 allows any member to call for consultations with allies if it believes its territorial integrity, political independence, or security to be threatened. This market will resolve to "Yes" if any NATO member invokes Article 4 of the North Atlantic Treaty between market creation and the specified date 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No". Article 4 is considered invoked as soon as a member formally requests consultations with NATO allies under Article 4, regardless of whether the request is later revoked. For example, Poland's request for consultations on September 10, 2025, or Estonia's request on September 24, 2025 would each qualify for a "Yes" resolution. If a member state only expresses intent to or is considering invoking Article 4, that alone does not suffice for a "Yes" resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from NATO; authoritative statements from the requesting member government may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/another-nato-article-4-byptptpt-20260726214235871
| trading-noob-2 |
| Yes |
| 571.17 |
| crypto-basenji | Yes | 500.91 |
| Porx | No | 494.02 |
| ahhuat8 | Yes | 333 |
| AJSV | Yes | 316.42 |
| SITIFUKUDZIN | Yes | 279.42 |
| rocky42004 | Yes | 258.16 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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