Analytics
Yes is at 6.5%, down 31 points from 37% when the market opened on 27 Jul 2026.
The high was 37% on 27 Jul 2026 and the low 6.5% on 11 Oct 2026. A week ago Yes was at 14.5%; a month ago, 14.5%. Its largest one-day move was 18 points up, to 31% on 28 Aug 2026.
It is one of 2 markets under “Another NATO article 4 by...?”.
$38.14 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $22.44K since listing. The order book holds $11.03K, with a 3.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 406 trades, $946.74 bought Yes and $9.51K bought No.
The largest Yes position is Lbr9 with 860 shares; the largest No position is DiaMat with 1.3K. Ten wallets hold 65.6% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Nov 2026, 19 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 13, 8:19 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB · 79 points · 27 Jul 2026 – 13 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 27 Jul 2026 | 37.0% |
| 13 Oct 2026 | 6.5% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| DiaMat | No | 1.3K |
| StarMaster | No | 999.76 |
| Lbr9 | Yes | 860.08 |
NATO's Article 4 allows any member to call for consultations with allies if it believes its territorial integrity, political independence, or security to be threatened. This market will resolve to "Yes" if any NATO member invokes Article 4 of the North Atlantic Treaty between market creation and the specified date 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No". Article 4 is considered invoked as soon as a member formally requests consultations with NATO allies under Article 4, regardless of whether the request is later revoked. For example, Poland's request for consultations on September 10, 2025, or Estonia's request on September 24, 2025 would each qualify for a "Yes" resolution. If a member state only expresses intent to or is considering invoking Article 4, that alone does not suffice for a "Yes" resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from NATO; authoritative statements from the requesting member government may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/another-nato-article-4-byptptpt-20260726214235871
| AJSV |
| Yes |
| 612.74 |
| crypto-basenji | Yes | 602.99 |
| marketmover-344 | No | 500 |
| Porx | No | 496.23 |
| xcvsgdd | Yes | 413.36 |
| BloodyMummer | Yes | 400 |
| FishermansFiend | No | 322.92 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
New to prediction markets? How to read a market page
