Analytics
The cohort performance summary keeps its original period. These positions are a separate Polymarket observation and do not establish complete position history.
A complete provider position result is unavailable. Missing positions and amounts are not shown as zero holdings.
Profile detail last fetched just now. Trade times and chart dates show when activity occurred.
| Market | Outcome | Size | Avg price | Position value | PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? | No | 2.23K | $0.583 | $1.78K | +$474.5 |
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This wallet's markets have not resolved into a category mix in the public profile data yet.
| Market | Side | Size | Price | Notional | When |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 China ballistic missile launch by December 31?Yes | sell | 14.36 | $0.170 | $2.44 | 20d ago |
 |
| No |
| 2K |
| $0.765 |
| $1.73K |
| +$199.99 |
 Will Russia enter Sumy by December 31, 2026? | No | 1.26K | $0.582 | $1.18K | +$452.89 |
| Will Russia enter Sloviansk by December 31, 2026? | No | 1.24K | $0.752 | $976.97 | +$46.73 |
| Will Russia enter Kramatorsk by December 31, 2026? | No | 1.33K | $0.824 | $912.23 | -$184.78 |
 Iran leadership change by September 30? | No | 877.1 | $0.884 | $856.93 | +$81.11 |
 Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31? | Yes | 2K | $0.240 | $410 | -$70 |
 Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026? | Yes | 300 | $0.560 | $196.5 | +$28.5 |
| Will Russia enter Kharkiv by December 31, 2026? | No | 180.31 | $0.942 | $176.25 | +$6.4 |
 Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31? | Yes | 400 | $0.520 | $58 | -$150 |
 Another NATO Article 4 invocation by October 31, 2026? | Yes | 400 | $0.260 | $58 | -$46 |
| China ballistic missile launch by December 31? | Yes | 166.25 | $0.160 | $29.09 | +$2.49 |
 Will Houthis successfully target shipping on August 17, 2026? | No | 40 | $0.850 | $16.2 | -$17.8 |
| buy |
| 663.07 |
| $0.997 |
| $661.12 |
| 28d ago |
| Will Helaena Targaryen die in the House of the Dragon Season 3 finale?Yes | buy | 724.97 | $0.998 | $723.52 | 28d ago |
| Will Helaena Targaryen die in the House of the Dragon Season 3 finale?Yes | buy | 121.41 | $0.995 | $120.85 | 28d ago |
| Will Corlys Velaryon die in the House of the Dragon Season 3 finale?No | buy | 74.28 | $0.993 | $73.76 | 29d ago |
| Will Mysaria die in the House of the Dragon Season 3 finale?No | buy | 6.55 | $0.990 | $6.48 | Aug 10, 2026 |
 Will Wildberries announce bankruptcy before 2027?No | sell | 642.27 | $0.890 | $571.62 | Aug 9, 2026 |
| Will Wildberries announce bankruptcy before 2027?No | sell | 788.43 | $0.900 | $709.59 | Aug 9, 2026 |
| Will Daemon Targaryen die in the House of the Dragon Season 3 finale?No | buy | 40 | $0.950 | $38 | Aug 8, 2026 |
 US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?Yes | sell | 151.36 | $0.450 | $68.11 | Aug 8, 2026 |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 10, 2026?No | buy | 400 | $0.730 | $292 | Aug 8, 2026 |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 8, 2026?No | buy | 200 | $0.920 | $184 | Aug 8, 2026 |
| Iran leadership change by September 30?No | buy | 200 | $0.870 | $174 | Aug 7, 2026 |
| Iran leadership change by September 30?No | buy | 657.1 | $0.890 | $584.82 | Aug 7, 2026 |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?Yes | buy | 418.13 | $0.540 | $225.79 | Aug 6, 2026 |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?No | sell | 221.95 | $0.200 | $44.39 | Aug 5, 2026 |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?No | sell | 174.49 | $0.210 | $36.64 | Aug 5, 2026 |
| Will Wildberries announce bankruptcy before 2027?No | buy | 1.43K | $0.850 | $1.22K | Aug 4, 2026 |
 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?No | sell | 1K | $0.820 | $820 | Aug 4, 2026 |
 US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?Yes | sell | 5.38K | $0.080 | $430.18 | Jul 31, 2026 |
 Iran full airspace closure by August 15?No | sell | 944.18 | $0.718 | $677.9 | Jul 31, 2026 |
 Mykhailo Fedorov reinstated as Ukrainian Defense Minister by August 31, 2026?No | buy | 90.06 | $0.930 | $83.76 | Jul 31, 2026 |
| Mykhailo Fedorov reinstated as Ukrainian Defense Minister by August 31, 2026?No | buy | 119.13 | $0.920 | $109.6 | Jul 30, 2026 |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?Yes | sell | 1.51K | $0.001 | $1.51 | Jul 29, 2026 |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?Yes | buy | 75.97 | $0.229 | $17.4 | Jul 29, 2026 |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?Yes | buy | 88.15 | $0.228 | $20.1 | Jul 29, 2026 |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?No | buy | 469.93 | $0.790 | $371.24 | Jul 29, 2026 |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?Yes | buy | 467.67 | $0.660 | $308.66 | Jul 29, 2026 |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?Yes | buy | 675.94 | $0.627 | $423.74 | Jul 28, 2026 |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?Yes | buy | 1.43K | $0.386 | $552.63 | Jul 28, 2026 |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?Yes | buy | 169.95 | $0.285 | $48.44 | Jul 28, 2026 |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?No | buy | 750 | $0.410 | $307.5 | Jul 26, 2026 |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by July 31, 2026?No | buy | 2.19K | $0.780 | $1.71K | Jul 26, 2026 |
| Iran full airspace closure by August 15?No | sell | 1.14K | $0.723 | $826.49 | Jul 25, 2026 |
| Iran full airspace closure by August 15?No | buy | 1.16K | $0.709 | $821.23 | Jul 25, 2026 |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14?Yes | buy | 1.22K | $0.500 | $607.52 | Jul 25, 2026 |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?Yes | buy | 1.84K | $0.634 | $1.16K | Jul 25, 2026 |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?No | sell | 237.49 | $0.480 | $114 | Jul 25, 2026 |
| Will Houthis successfully target shipping on July 31, 2026?No | buy | 28.99 | $0.829 | $24.03 | Jul 24, 2026 |
 Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 25?Yes | buy | 249.84 | $0.750 | $187.28 | Jul 24, 2026 |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 25?Yes | sell | 40.42 | $0.810 | $32.74 | Jul 24, 2026 |
| Will Houthis successfully target shipping on August 17, 2026?No | buy | 40 | $0.850 | $34 | Jul 24, 2026 |
| Will Houthis successfully target shipping on August 4, 2026?No | buy | 40 | $0.860 | $34.4 | Jul 24, 2026 |
| Will Houthis successfully target shipping on August 18, 2026?No | buy | 35.71 | $0.840 | $30 | Jul 24, 2026 |
| Will Houthis successfully target shipping on August 15, 2026?No | buy | 115.42 | $0.860 | $99.32 | Jul 24, 2026 |
| Will Houthis successfully target shipping on August 1, 2026?No | buy | 20 | $0.851 | $17.02 | Jul 24, 2026 |
| Will Houthis successfully target shipping on August 21, 2026?No | buy | 23.5 | $0.850 | $19.97 | Jul 24, 2026 |
| Will Houthis successfully target shipping on August 21, 2026?No | sell | 136.12 | $0.853 | $116.14 | Jul 24, 2026 |
| Will Houthis successfully target shipping on August 21, 2026?No | buy | 147.01 | $0.838 | $123.21 | Jul 24, 2026 |
| Will Houthis successfully target shipping on August 20, 2026?No | sell | 41 | $0.885 | $36.29 | Jul 24, 2026 |