Analytics
Yes is at 8.5%, down 42 points from 50% when the market opened on 6 Jan 2026.
Across the 270 daily closes on record from 6 Jan 2026 to 30 Oct 2026 (29 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 73% on 18 Mar 2026 and the lowest 7.5% on 25 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 8.5%; a month before, 16.5%. Its largest one-day move was 19 points down, to 32.5% on 16 Jan 2026.
$2.18K traded in the last 24 hours, out of $784.3K since listing. The order book holds $40.51K, with a 1.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 500 trades, $2.05K bought Yes and $17.05K bought No; the largest was a $13.48K sell of No at 93.0¢.
The largest Yes position is cowcat with 18.5K shares; the largest No position is Detailed-Lip with 29.3K. Ten wallets hold 60.7% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2027, 63 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 30, 2:57 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 270 points, 6 Jan 2026 – 30 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 6 Jan 2026 | 50.0% |
| 30 Oct 2026 | 8.5% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Detailed-Lip | No | 29.26K |
| cowcat | Yes | 18.53K |
| TOPO85 | Yes | 11.5K |
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Miguel Díaz-Canel ceases to be President of Cuba for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Miguel Díaz-Canel's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Miguel Díaz-Canel and the government of Cuba; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/miguel-daz-canel-out-as-leader-of-cuba-by-june-30
| nedsta |
| No |
| 10.08K |
| Ajjooli | No | 8.23K |
| Jade Quasar D7A7 | Yes | 6.88K |
| Intern. | Yes | 6K |
| hammerdream | No | 5.38K |
| Impassioned-Light | Yes | 4.57K |
| skibabiba | No | 3.8K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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