Analytics
Yes is at 1.1%, down 15 points from 16.5% when the market opened on 12 May 2026.
The high was 16.5% on 12 May 2026 and the low 1.1% on 21 Oct 2026. A week ago Yes was at 1.4%; a month ago, 3.4%. Its largest one-day move was 9 points down, to 7.5% on 13 May 2026.
It is one of 7 markets under “Which cities will Russia enter by December 31?”.
$125.7K traded in the last 24 hours. The order book holds $4.42K, with a 1.6% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 500 trades, $536.64 bought Yes and $50.37K bought No; the largest was a $5K buy of No at 95.8¢.
The largest Yes position is tsihkodiives with 5.3K shares; the largest No position is leqso0410 with 5.2K. Ten wallets hold 67.4% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2027, 73 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 21, 12:52 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 162 points, 12 May 2026 – 21 Oct 2026, chart shows 0%–20%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 12 May 2026 | 16.5% |
| 21 Oct 2026 | 1.1% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| tsihkodiives | Yes | 5.3K |
| leqso0410 | No | 5.22K |
| Solar Raven A90C | No | 2.07K |
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures any territory of Kharkiv (50.00429983749034° N, 36.31810952195039° E; https://maps.app.goo.gl/m484AfKV3TTS8nB68) between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Territory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”. The boundaries of the municipality are those shown under the “Ukrainian Settlements” layer on the ISW map. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading under the following layers will qualify: - Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas - Assessed Russian-Controlled Terrain - Assessed Russian Advances Shading under the following layers will not qualify: - Claimed Russian Territory Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded under a qualifying layer on the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/which-cities-will-russia-enter-by-december-31
| Optimistic-Yang |
| Yes |
| 1.6K |
| Perypery | Yes | 1.48K |
| Wary-Dwelling | Yes | 1.02K |
| Numitus1994 | Yes | 986.03 |
| OraculumNobius | No | 878.98 |
| LornaPredicts | Yes | 607.04 |
| 95074f700f93bdf6e62fc965e0832064c0877b04 | No | 566.68 |
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