Analytics
Yes is at 32%, up 6 points from 26% when the market opened on 2 Apr 2026.
Across the 193 daily closes on record from 2 Apr 2026 to 30 Oct 2026 (19 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 44.5% on 23 Apr 2026 and the lowest 15.5% on 5 Aug 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 22.5%; a month before, 21.5%. Its largest one-day move was 8 points up, to 34.5% on 28 Oct 2026.
$29.16K traded in the last 24 hours, out of $889.69K since listing. The order book holds $59K, with a 2.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 500 trades, $22.24K bought Yes and $18.02K bought No; the largest was a $5.07K buy of Yes at 33.1¢.
The largest Yes position is DirkDiggler67 with 28.2K shares; the largest No position is Sticky-Closing with 21.3K. Ten wallets hold 36.9% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2027, 63 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 30, 11:31 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 193 points, 2 Apr 2026 – 30 Oct 2026, chart shows 0%–60%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 2 Apr 2026 | 26.0% |
| 30 Oct 2026 | 32.0% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| DirkDiggler67 | Yes | 28.24K |
| HorribleWork | Yes | 22.75K |
| Sticky-Closing | No | 21.31K |
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Pete Hegseth ceases to be U.S. Secretary of Defense for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Pete Hegseth's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Pete Hegseth and the U.S. government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/pete-hegseth-out-as-secretary-of-defense-by-december-31
| peasant | Yes | 20.35K |
| Pondermint | Yes | 17.87K |
| DaveyP | Yes | 16.42K |
| Serega-pro | No | 16.17K |
| wienerdog | Yes | 15.31K |
| MEPP | No | 14.49K |
| Parz1vaI | No | 14.18K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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