Analytics
Yes is at 18.5%, up 4.5 points from 14% when the market opened on 3 Oct 2026.
Across the 23 daily closes on record from 3 Oct 2026 to 29 Oct 2026 (4 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 21.5% on 24 Oct 2026 and the lowest 11.5% on 5 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 20%.
It is one of 2 markets under “Will Russia invade another country by...?”.
$252.5 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $10.48K since listing. The order book holds $22.32K, with a 1.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 89 trades, $388.3 bought Yes and $5.34K bought No; the largest was a $3.45K buy of No at 81.0¢.
The largest Yes position is UniversalCarrier with 5K shares; the largest No position is bearbees2 with 4.3K. Ten wallets hold 91.9% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2028.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 29, 1:56 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 23 points, 3 Oct 2026 – 29 Oct 2026, chart shows 5%–25%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 3 Oct 2026 | 14.0% |
| 29 Oct 2026 | 18.5% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| UniversalCarrier | Yes | 5.02K |
| bearbees2 | No | 4.25K |
| theitaliangoats | No | 928.13 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any UN member state's territory, other than Ukraine's, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by any UN member state, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-russia-invade-another-country-in-2026
| Diligent-Scenario |
| No |
| 549.67 |
| v1notlost | Yes | 419.99 |
| crop? | Yes | 264.74 |
| lucid-for15min-NEXUS-amused-flipper | No | 222.22 |
| xtxpleasecallme | Yes | 216.92 |
| Donny.T | No | 175.07 |
| Flamboyant-Warming | Yes | 156 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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