Analytics
Yes is at 4.5%, down 5 points from 9.5% when the market opened on 20 Jan 2026.
Across the 252 daily closes on record from 20 Jan 2026 to 27 Oct 2026 (30 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 16.5% on 5 Mar 2026 and the lowest 4.5% on 16 Aug 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 6%; a month before, 6.5%.
It is one of 2 markets under “Will Russia invade another country by...?”.
$3.65K traded in the last 24 hours, out of $632.4K since listing. The order book holds $71.2K, with a 1.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 500 trades, $7.86K bought Yes and $39.71K bought No; the largest was a $11.27K buy of No at 93.9¢.
The largest Yes position is LlamaLoco0000 with 70.9K shares; the largest No position is NeH with 50K. Ten wallets hold 60.1% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2027, 66 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 27, 8:49 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 252 points, 20 Jan 2026 – 27 Oct 2026, chart shows 0%–20%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 20 Jan 2026 | 9.5% |
| 27 Oct 2026 | 4.5% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| LlamaLoco0000 | Yes | 70.94K |
| NeH | No | 50K |
| Donny.T | No | 49.64K |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any UN member state's territory, other than Ukraine's, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by any UN member state, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-russia-invade-another-country-in-2026
| gorovi |
| No |
| 32.38K |
| Impure-Anniversary | Yes | 25.98K |
| Scoofy-Bubik | No | 24.16K |
| vsesoso | Yes | 19.22K |
| VladimirPooper | No | 18.98K |
| whysoslow | Yes | 18.33K |
| Muookjh | Yes | 14.45K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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