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| Market | Outcome | Size | Avg price | Position value | PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Claude 6 released by March 31, 2027? | Yes | 782.87 | $0.327 | $270.09 | +$13.89 |
 Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026? |
This wallet's markets have not resolved into a category mix in the public profile data yet.
| Market | Side | Size | Price | Notional | When |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut on the Arena Leaderboard at a score of at least 1510?Yes | buy | 125 | $0.110 | $13.75 | 1h ago |
|
| Yes |
| 548.84 |
| $0.259 |
| $192.09 |
| +$49.89 |
 Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1500? | No | 234 | $0.342 | $94.77 | +$14.71 |
 Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? | Yes | 1.17K | $0.093 | $88.02 | -$20.87 |
 Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of October 2026? | No | 156.42 | $0.243 | $57.88 | +$19.87 |
| Will Anthropic be the #2 AI lab at the end of October 2026? | Yes | 252 | $0.092 | $54.18 | +$30.9 |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1495? | No | 194 | $0.250 | $40.74 | -$7.76 |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1490? | No | 133.2 | $0.403 | $40.09 | -$13.52 |
| Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut on the Arena Leaderboard at a score of at least 1500? | Yes | 193.85 | $0.258 | $34.89 | -$15.11 |
 Will any country expel an Israeli ambassador by December 31? | Yes | 105.49 | $0.331 | $34.29 | -$0.66 |
 Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? | No | 191.53 | $0.522 | $32.27 | -$67.73 |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026? | No | 125 | $0.167 | $31.88 | +$10.98 |
 Will Microsoft release a new MAI thinking model by September 30, 2026? | Yes | 69.99 | $0.220 | $18.2 | +$2.8 |
 Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? | Yes | 789.49 | $0.019 | $14.61 | -$0.39 |
 Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 456.05 | $0.110 | $14.37 | -$35.63 |
| Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut on the Arena Leaderboard at a score of at least 1510? | Yes | 125 | $0.110 | $13.13 | -$0.63 |
 Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? | Yes | 2.16K | $0.008 | $11.87 | -$5.4 |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1480? | No | 200 | $0.060 | $10.8 | -$1.2 |
| Will Anthropic be the #2 AI lab at the end of September 2026? | Yes | 53.34 | $0.097 | $9.41 | +$4.26 |
| Will Z.ai be the #2 AI lab at the end of October 2026? | Yes | 99 | $0.033 | $7.28 | +$4.01 |
| Will OpenAI be the #2 AI lab at the end of September 2026? | Yes | 21.54 | $0.060 | $7 | +$5.71 |
 Will NTE: Neverness to Everness win Best Mobile Game at the 2026 Game Awards? | Yes | 93.94 | $0.128 | $6.72 | -$5.28 |
 Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? | Yes | 330.83 | $0.020 | $3.14 | -$3.38 |
| Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 60% or higher? | Yes | 216 | $0.203 | $2.92 | -$41 |
 Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? | Yes | 435.48 | $0.019 | $2.4 | -$5.82 |
| buy |
| 193.85 |
| $0.258 |
| $50 |
| 2d ago |
| Claude 6 released by March 31, 2027?Yes | sell | 200 | $0.420 | $84 | 2d ago |
| Claude 6 released by March 31, 2027?Yes | buy | 150 | $0.410 | $61.5 | 3d ago |
| Claude 6 released by March 31, 2027?Yes | buy | 92.82 | $0.431 | $40 | 3d ago |
| Claude 6 released by March 31, 2027?Yes | buy | 10 | $0.300 | $3 | 3d ago |
| Claude 6 released by March 31, 2027?Yes | buy | 467 | $0.302 | $140.87 | 3d ago |
| Claude 6 released by March 31, 2027?Yes | buy | 263.05 | $0.290 | $76.28 | 3d ago |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1495?No | buy | 194 | $0.250 | $48.5 | 3d ago |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1500?No | buy | 234 | $0.342 | $80.06 | 3d ago |
 Will Tropical Storm Dolly strengthen to a hurricane?No | sell | 20 | $0.991 | $19.82 | 5d ago |
| Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?Yes | buy | 1.69K | $0.015 | $25 | 19d ago |
 Will Thursday be the most viewed day of Jesse Watters Primetime for the week of August 10 - August 16?Yes | buy | 39.44 | $0.090 | $3.55 | 23d ago |
| Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of October 2026?No | buy | 61.1 | $0.270 | $16.5 | 23d ago |
| Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of October 2026?No | buy | 37.37 | $0.250 | $9.34 | 23d ago |
| Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of October 2026?No | buy | 57.95 | $0.210 | $12.17 | 23d ago |
 Will CMI declare the Riemann Hypothesis solved by December 31, 2027?Yes | sell | 180 | $0.190 | $34.2 | 23d ago |
| Will OpenAI be the second-best AI Agent Lab at the end of September 2026?Yes | buy | 70.09 | $0.543 | $38.05 | 23d ago |
 Will the median home value in the DC Metro be between $512,000 and $518,000 on September 30?No | buy | 65 | $0.604 | $39.27 | 23d ago |
| Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 60% or higher?Yes | buy | 216 | $0.203 | $43.92 | 23d ago |
| Will Google be the #2 AI lab at the end of October 2026?No | sell | 86.2 | $0.743 | $64.01 | 23d ago |
| Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 50% or higher?Yes | buy | 57.08 | $0.460 | $26.26 | 23d ago |
| Will Wednesday be the most viewed day of Jesse Watters Primetime for the week of August 10 - August 16?Yes | buy | 20 | $0.300 | $6 | 24d ago |
 Will Jared Moskowitz win the FL-25 Democratic primary by 20–25%?No | buy | 20 | $0.643 | $12.86 | 24d ago |
| Will Wednesday be the most viewed day of Jesse Watters Primetime for the week of August 10 - August 16?Yes | buy | 5 | $0.300 | $1.5 | 24d ago |
| Will Jared Moskowitz win the FL-25 Democratic primary by 20–25%?No | buy | 29.98 | $0.553 | $16.59 | 24d ago |
| Will Wednesday be the most viewed day of Jesse Watters Primetime for the week of August 10 - August 16?Yes | buy | 36 | $0.286 | $10.28 | 24d ago |
| Will Wednesday be the most viewed day of Jesse Watters Primetime for the week of August 10 - August 16?Yes | buy | 281 | $0.217 | $61.11 | 24d ago |
 Next Meta Muse Spark (1.3+) released by September 30, 2026?No | buy | 20 | $0.350 | $7 | 24d ago |
| Next Meta Muse Spark (1.3+) released by September 30, 2026?No | buy | 5 | $0.350 | $1.75 | 24d ago |
| Next Meta Muse Spark (1.3+) released by September 30, 2026?No | buy | 12.95 | $0.386 | $5 | 24d ago |
| Will Wednesday be the most viewed day of Jesse Watters Primetime for the week of August 10 - August 16?Yes | buy | 40 | $0.330 | $13.2 | 24d ago |
| Next Meta Muse Spark (1.3+) released by September 30, 2026?No | buy | 136.91 | $0.377 | $51.57 | 24d ago |
 Will Adrián de la Garza Santos win the 2027 Nuevo León Governor Election?No | buy | 118.04 | $0.658 | $77.61 | 24d ago |
 Will Pat McFadden be the first to leave the Burnham cabinet?No | buy | 125.1 | $0.764 | $95.55 | 24d ago |
| Will CMI declare the Riemann Hypothesis solved by December 31, 2027?Yes | buy | 180 | $0.221 | $39.7 | 24d ago |
| Will Z.ai be the #2 AI lab at the end of October 2026?Yes | buy | 99 | $0.033 | $3.27 | 25d ago |
 Will SpaceXAI be the #2 AI lab at the end of October 2026?Yes | buy | 170 | $0.025 | $4.3 | 25d ago |
| Will Anthropic be the #2 AI lab at the end of October 2026?Yes | buy | 252 | $0.092 | $23.28 | 25d ago |
| Will Anthropic be the #2 AI lab at the end of September 2026?Yes | buy | 53.34 | $0.097 | $5.16 | 25d ago |
| Will Google be the #2 AI lab at the end of October 2026?No | buy | 86.21 | $0.580 | $50 | 25d ago |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?No | buy | 125 | $0.167 | $20.9 | 25d ago |
| Will Arknights: Endfield win Best Mobile Game at the 2026 Game Awards?No | buy | 104 | $0.510 | $53.04 | 25d ago |
| Will Arknights: Endfield win Best Mobile Game at the 2026 Game Awards?No | buy | 130 | $0.434 | $56.37 | 25d ago |
 Will Alibaba be the second-best Code Arena | WebDev AI lab at the end of September 2026?Yes | buy | 5.84 | $0.310 | $1.81 | 25d ago |
| Will Arknights: Endfield win Best Mobile Game at the 2026 Game Awards?No | buy | 56.81 | $0.500 | $28.41 | 25d ago |
 Charizard ex Price Over/Under $372.18 on August 31?Over | buy | 115.1 | $0.490 | $56.4 | 25d ago |
| Will Arknights: Endfield win Best Mobile Game at the 2026 Game Awards?No | buy | 105.08 | $0.438 | $46 | 25d ago |
| Will Alibaba be the second-best Code Arena | WebDev AI lab at the end of September 2026?Yes | buy | 106.49 | $0.250 | $26.6 | 25d ago |
| Will Alibaba be the second-best Code Arena | WebDev AI lab at the end of September 2026?Yes | buy | 144.81 | $0.290 | $41.94 | 25d ago |