Prices as of 9 Oct 2026, 03:18 UTC. The mayor markets pay on who takes office as a result of the vote; the party market counts races won, not votes.
Chiang Wan-an: Down 10.0 points in a week, 3.8× a normal week for this contract. 1 other outcome moved by more than noise.
Down 10.0 points in a week, 3.8× a normal week for this contract.
Up 13 points in a week, 3.0× a normal week for this contract.
Trade Taiwan Local Elections 2026 on paper, free
A free account gives you a practice balance at live Polymarket prices, a portfolio that marks itself, and Vi on every market. No card.
Each line is the price of one outcome on Polymarket, read as a probability. Hover or tap to read every line on the same day.
| Outcome | 30 days ago | Now |
|---|---|---|
| Chiang Wan-an | 93% | 74% |
| Puma Shen | 7.5% | 28% |
Dollars traded in the last 24 hours, event by event, with the outcome leading each one.
The order book behind “Taipei Mayor Election Winner”, read a minute ago.
| Outcome | Bid / ask | Within 2¢ | $1K pays | $10K pays |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chiang Wan-an | 73¢/74¢ | $4.7K · $20.1K | 74¢+0.0 | |
| Puma Shen | 28¢/28¢ | $1.1K · $2.2K | 28¢+0.4 | |
| Kuo Hsi | —/0.1¢ | $0 · $50 | 2.2¢+2.1 |
Average price a buy order of that size would pay against the offers resting now, and how many points that is above the best offer. “Within 2¢” is the dollars resting near the touch on the bid and the offer side.
Polymarket publishes no view counts. Comments are the nearest thing to a crowd, and they do not always follow the money.
Biggest holders in this market's two leading outcomes, valued at the current price. Open a name for the wallet's record on Vultax.
7 more positions in this market
Who holds the most on each side, valued at the current price, with each wallet's record one click away.
Vultax Research: how Polymarket trader leaderboards compare
Prints of $1,000 and more in the room's busiest markets, newest first.
9 more large trades in this room
Each print of $1,000 and more as it happens: who, which side, what price.
Every move in this room that cleared Vi IQ's "notable" line, stamped when it happened. Vultax has recorded this room since 5 Oct 2026.
10 earlier moves on record
The dated record of every meaningful move in this room: what moved, by how much against its own normal, and whether money came with it.
The candidate Polymarket priced highest to win Taipei 30 days, 7 days and one day before election day. The result is filled in when the market resolves.
Prices are Polymarket's daily closing prices from its public price history, read at the last close before each checkpoint; outcomes that traded less than $1,000 over their life are left out, and a new market's opening 50% placeholder is not counted as a price.
User reads of each candidate's English Wikipedia article, 8 Sep 2026 to 7 Oct 2026 (30 days), beside “Taipei Mayor Election Winner”. Shares are of the names listed here. A price far ahead of attention is a reason to look closer, not evidence of anything on its own.
Source: Wikimedia pageviews · user reads of each English Wikipedia article · read 9 Oct 2026
Taipei, New Taipei, Taoyuan, Taichung, Tainan and Kaohsiung, busiest first
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7d | 24h volume | Liquidity | Closes | Paper trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chiang Wan-an | 74% | — | −10 | $15.6K | $80.4K | 29 Nov 2026 | Yes74¢No27¢ |
| Puma Shen |
Counted over the mayor and magistrate races, one post each
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7d | 24h volume | Liquidity | Closes | Paper trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kuomintang | 88% | +0.5 | −2.5 | $1.1K | $45.3K | 29 Nov 2026 | Yes88¢No12¢ |
The other mayor and magistrate races, busiest first
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7d | 24h volume | Liquidity | Closes | Paper trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yu Shu-chen | 80% | — | +0.5 | $39 | $18.7K | 29 Nov 2026 | Yes80¢No20¢ |
Largest price changes in points, counted only on markets that traded at least $1,000 in the same 24 hours. The number beside each move is that market’s 24-hour volume.
Change in probability points since the same time the previous day
This room reads Polymarket's markets on Taiwan's local elections of 28 November 2026: the mayor of each special municipality, the mayors and magistrates of the other cities and counties, and which party wins the most of those posts. Each price carries its 24-hour volume and resting liquidity.
Money is uneven across the races. The capital draws most of it and many county markets are thin, so one order there can move a price by several points. The boards list the busiest races first and print each market's liquidity beside its price.
| 28% |
| +3.3 |
| +10 |
| $22.1K |
| $102K |
| 29 Nov 2026 |
| Yes28¢No72¢ |
| Kuo Hsi | <1% | — | — | $0 | $68.3K | 29 Nov 2026 | Yes0.1¢No100¢ |
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7d | 24h volume | Liquidity | Closes | Paper trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lai Jui-lung | 65% | — | −1.5 | $1.0K | $39.6K | 29 Nov 2026 | Yes65¢No36¢ |
| Ko Chih-en | 32% | −2.5 | −1.9 | $13.9K | $57.8K | 29 Nov 2026 | Yes32¢No68¢ |
| Hsu Chih-chieh | <1% | — | 0 | $0 | $16.9K | 29 Nov 2026 | Yes0.2¢No100¢ |
| Lin Tai-hua | <1% | — | — | $0 | $17.2K | 29 Nov 2026 | Yes0.1¢No100¢ |
| Chiu Yi-ying | <1% | — | 0 | $0 | $17.2K | 29 Nov 2026 | Yes0.1¢No100¢ |
1 further priced outcome in this market is not shown.
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7d | 24h volume | Liquidity | Closes | Paper trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lee Shu-chuan | 56% | −2.0 | −8.5 | $2.1K | $52.9K | 29 Nov 2026 | Yes56¢No44¢ |
| Su Chiao-hui | 44% | +1.5 | +8.5 | $1.1K | $53.3K | 29 Nov 2026 | Yes44¢No56¢ |
| Huang Kuo-chang | <1% | — | — | $0 | $31.1K | 29 Nov 2026 | Yes0.1¢No100¢ |
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7d | 24h volume | Liquidity | Closes | Paper trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chang San-cheng | 92% | −1.5 | −0.5 | $164 | $19.6K | 29 Nov 2026 | Yes92¢No8.0¢ |
| Huang Shih-chieh | 4.2% | 0 | −0.6 | $10 | $17.6K | 29 Nov 2026 | Yes4.2¢No96¢ |
| Perng Shaw-jiin | <1% | — | — | $0 | $18.0K | 29 Nov 2026 | Yes0.1¢No100¢ |
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7d | 24h volume | Liquidity | Closes | Paper trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Johnny Chiang | 87% | −1.0 | — | $0 | $16.1K | 29 Nov 2026 | Yes87¢No14¢ |
| Ho Hsin-chun | 14% | +4.1 | +1.4 | $103 | $7.9K | 29 Nov 2026 | Yes14¢No86¢ |
| Yang Chiung-ying | <1% | — | −1.5 | $0 | $15.8K | 29 Nov 2026 | Yes0.5¢No100¢ |
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7d | 24h volume | Liquidity | Closes | Paper trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chen Ting-fei | 88% | −0.5 | +2.0 | $0 | $22.0K | 29 Nov 2026 | Yes88¢No12¢ |
| Hsieh Lung-chieh | 6.7% | −0.7 | +1.6 | $0 | $21.1K | 29 Nov 2026 | Yes6.7¢No93¢ |
| Lin Yi-feng | 2.9% | — | 0 | $0 | $15.6K | 29 Nov 2026 | Yes2.9¢No97¢ |
| Lin Chun-hsien | <1% | — | — | $0 | $15.4K | 29 Nov 2026 | Yes0.5¢No99¢ |
| Democratic Progressive Party | 13% | 0 | +2.5 | $103 | $49.5K | 29 Nov 2026 | Yes13¢No87¢ |
| Taiwan People’s Party | <1% | — | 0 | $0 | $37.3K | 29 Nov 2026 | Yes0.1¢No100¢ |
| Wei Chia-hsien | 13% | −2.0 | −1.0 | $39 | $18.1K | 29 Nov 2026 | Yes13¢No88¢ |
| Chang Chun | 5.7% | −1.6 | −2.5 | $39 | $2.7K | 29 Nov 2026 | Yes5.7¢No94¢ |
| Yeh Yao-hui | 4% | −0.6 | 0 | $39 | $3.2K | 29 Nov 2026 | Yes4¢No96¢ |
1 further priced outcome in this market is not shown.
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7d | 24h volume | Liquidity | Closes | Paper trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ann Kao | 93% | — | −1.0 | $108 | $41.1K | 29 Nov 2026 | Yes93¢No7.5¢ |
| Chuang Ching-cheng | 7.4% | +0.8 | +2.4 | $0 | $32.7K | 29 Nov 2026 | Yes7.4¢No93¢ |
| Ho Chih-yung | <1% | −0.5 | −0.8 | $0 | $34.7K | 29 Nov 2026 | Yes0.9¢No99¢ |
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7d | 24h volume | Liquidity | Closes | Paper trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chung Tung-chin | 96% | +1.9 | +3.9 | $104 | $15.5K | 29 Nov 2026 | Yes96¢No3.7¢ |
| Chen Pin-an | 3.0% | −1.2 | −1.5 | $0 | $19.2K | 29 Nov 2026 | Yes3.0¢No97¢ |
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7d | 24h volume | Liquidity | Closes | Paper trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lin Kuo-chang | 71% | +0.5 | — | $0 | $23.7K | 29 Nov 2026 | Yes71¢No30¢ |
| Wu Tsung-hsien | 28% | −1.0 | −1.0 | $0 | $28.8K | 29 Nov 2026 | Yes28¢No72¢ |
| Chen Wan-hui | 1.6% | 0 | 0 | $100 | $16.9K | 29 Nov 2026 | Yes1.6¢No98¢ |
| Chang Sheng-te | 1.1% | 0 | — | $0 | $16.0K | 29 Nov 2026 | Yes1.1¢No99¢ |
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7d | 24h volume | Liquidity | Closes | Paper trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wang Chung-ming | 73% | — | −5.5 | $50 | $13.0K | 29 Nov 2026 | Yes73¢No28¢ |
| Tsao Erh-yuan | 11% | 0 | −4.4 | $0 | $3.1K | 29 Nov 2026 | Yes11¢No89¢ |
| Tsao Erh-chang | <1% | — | — | $0 | $1.2K | 29 Nov 2026 | Yes0.1¢No100¢ |
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7d | 24h volume | Liquidity | Closes | Paper trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cheng Chao-fang | 60% | −0.5 | −1.5 | $13 | $26.9K | 29 Nov 2026 | Yes60¢No41¢ |
| Hsu Hsin-ying | 35% | +2.5 | +2.0 | $6 | $24.6K | 29 Nov 2026 | Yes35¢No65¢ |
| Lin Szu-ming | <1% | — | 0 | $0 | $13.3K | 29 Nov 2026 | Yes0.1¢No100¢ |
| Chen Chien-hsien | <1% | — | — | $0 | $13.3K | 29 Nov 2026 | Yes0.1¢No100¢ |
10 further markets matched this board and are not shown.
Change in probability points since the same time the previous week
Prices are read from Polymarket's public markets and trades and describe what traders pay, not a forecast or recommendation by Vultax.
