Analytics
Yes is at 58.5%, down 20 points from 78.5% when the market opened on 15 Aug 2026.
Across the 74 daily closes on record from 15 Aug 2026 to 30 Oct 2026 (4 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 89% on 17 Aug 2026 and the lowest 55.5% on 30 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 57%; a month before, 77%. Its largest one-day move was 14 points down, to 72.5% on 25 Sep 2026.
Hsieh Kuo-liang is the favourite of the 2 outcomes in “Keelung Mayor Election Winner”, ahead of Tung Tzu-wei at 38.5%.
$935.83 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $7.97K since listing. The order book holds $21.53K, with a 5.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 110 trades, $2.45K bought Yes and $778.21 bought No.
The largest Yes position is James-Talarico with 1.7K shares; the largest No position is Indigo Signal 2966 with 3.8K. Ten wallets hold 95.4% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 29 Nov 2026, 30 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 30, 2:07 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 74 points, 15 Aug 2026 – 30 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 15 Aug 2026 | 78.5% |
| 30 Oct 2026 | 58.5% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 3.78K |
| James-Talarico | Yes | 1.69K |
| ArmageddonRewardsBilly | Yes | 1.1K |
Taiwanese local elections are scheduled to be held on November 28, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Mayor of Keelung as a result of this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder Mayors appointed before the election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known, or no candidate has been elected, by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Taiwanese government, specifically the Central Election Commission (https://db.cec.gov.tw/).
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/keelung-mayor-election-winner-20260813135716100
| RepublicOfChina | Yes | 892.4 |
| xtxpleasecallme | No | 316.05 |
| BlancHK | No | 310 |
| Lively-Leadership | Yes | 207.6 |
| ChiangWan-an | Yes | 145.96 |
| YangYuxiang | Yes | 100 |
| Odd-Relish | Yes | 71.99 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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