Analytics
Yes is at 25.1%, up 14 points from 11% when the market opened on 15 Aug 2026.
Across the 72 daily closes on record from 15 Aug 2026 to 30 Oct 2026 (6 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 26.1% on 19 Oct 2026 and the lowest 3.8% on 19 Sep 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 25.4%; a month before, 22.4%. Its largest one-day move was 16 points up, to 20.2% on 25 Sep 2026.
Tsao Erh-yuan ranks second of the 3 outcomes in “Lienchiang County Magistrate Election Winner”. Wang Chung-ming leads at 74.5%; Tsao Erh-chang is at 0.1%.
$248 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $3.24K since listing. The order book holds $5.88K, with a 4.1% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 57 trades, $401.37 bought Yes and $640.01 bought No.
The largest Yes position is musicenthusiast with 1.4K shares; the largest No position is Indigo Signal 2966 with 1.3K.
Trading closes on 29 Nov 2026, 30 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 30, 1:43 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 72 points, 15 Aug 2026 – 30 Oct 2026, chart shows 0%–40%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 15 Aug 2026 | 11.0% |
| 30 Oct 2026 | 25.1% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| musicenthusiast | Yes | 1.39K |
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 1.34K |
| xtxpleasecallme | No | 234.93 |
Taiwanese local elections are scheduled to be held on November 28, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Magistrate of Lienchiang County as a result of this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder Magistrates appointed before the election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known, or no candidate has been elected, by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Taiwanese government, specifically the Central Election Commission (https://db.cec.gov.tw/).
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/lienchiang-county-magistrate-election-winner-202608131357161600
| Haradwaith | No | 234 |
| spaceloaf | Yes | 160 |
| SnapElectionAvoider | Yes | 147.65 |
| byzftycw | Yes | 60 |
| Geromi | Yes | 39 |
| flexer78 | No | 21.05 |
| keatle | Yes | 18.73 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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