Nothing here has moved by more than its normal daily swing. The prices below are where the market has settled for now.
Little change: +0.2 points on the day against a normal daily swing of 0.4. Volume is 5.3× a normal day, so money came with it.
Research is free. Create a free account to save room watches and use your Vi allowance.
| Outcome | 30 days ago | Now |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 2.2% | 2.6% |
| Outcome | Bid / ask | Within 2¢ | $1K pays | $10K pays |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ebola pandemic in 2026? | 2.5¢/2.8¢ | $133, $321 | 4.8¢+2.0 | 27¢+25 |
Vultax Research: how Polymarket trader leaderboards compare
Vultax Research: what copying a Polymarket trade 30 seconds late costs
On Polymarket, “Ebola pandemic in 2026?” trades at 2.6%, on $5.7K traded across that market in the last 24 hours. This room reads 42 open markets across 18 Polymarket events, which together traded $30.2K over the same 24 hours and hold $423K of resting liquidity. Prices as of 27 Oct 2026, 18:37 UTC.
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7d | 24h volume | Liquidity | Closes | Paper trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ebola pandemic in 2026? | 2.6% | — | — | $5.7K | $33.0K |
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7d | 24h volume | Liquidity | Closes | Paper trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 to 34 | 73% | — | — |
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7d | 24h volume | Liquidity | Closes | Paper trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31 | 28% | — | — | $0 |
| Market | Resolved as | Total volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|
| CDC issues Level 4 warning by December 31? | Yes | $79.5K | 4 Aug 2026 |
| Cyclosporiasis cases in U.S. by July 31? | 1800+ | $50.9K | 1 Aug 2026 |
| Measles cases in U.S. by July 31? | 2200 | $64.5K | 1 Aug 2026 |
| Measles cases in U.S. by May 31? | 1800 | $197K |
The Outbreaks and pandemics room has no sourced event timeline to set its moves beside, so the cause of each move is unconfirmed.
This room reads Polymarket's markets on infectious disease and sorts them into pandemic declarations, case counts and the public health response. Each price carries its 24-hour volume and resting liquidity, and each market settles on the official source its rules name.
A pandemic market does not ask whether a disease is spreading; it asks whether a named authority, usually the World Health Organization, uses that word before the deadline. Case count markets settle on the totals a health agency publishes, so reporting delays matter as much as the outbreak itself.
| 1 Jan 2027 |
| Yes2.6¢No97¢ |
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7d | 24h volume | Liquidity | Closes | Paper trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? | 1.8% | — | — | $5.3K | $112K | 1 Jan 2027 | Yes1.8¢No98¢ |
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7d | 24h volume | Liquidity | Closes | Paper trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New pandemic in 2026? | 3.5% | — | — | $2.4K | $33.2K | 1 Jan 2027 | Yes3.5¢No97¢ |
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7d | 24h volume | Liquidity | Closes | Paper trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New COVID variant of concern before 2027? | 12% | — | — | $387 | $526 | 1 Jan 2027 | Yes12¢No88¢ |
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7d | 24h volume | Liquidity | Closes | Paper trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New pandemic before 2028? | 14% | — | — | $140 | $6.1K | 1 Jan 2028 | Yes14¢No87¢ |
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7d | 24h volume | Liquidity | Closes | Paper trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Plague pandemic in 2026? | 1.9% | — | — | $9 | $72.0K | 1 Jan 2027 | Yes1.9¢No98¢ |
| $1.5K |
| 1 Apr 2027 |
| Yes73¢No27¢ |
| 35 to 49 | 26% | — | — | $5.4K | $2.6K | 1 Apr 2027 | Yes26¢No74¢ |
| 50 or more | <1% | — | — | $1.9K | $3.6K | 1 Apr 2027 | Yes0.6¢No99.4¢ |
| Fewer than 20 | <1% | — | — | $600 | $2.6K | 31 Mar 2027 | Yes0.5¢No99.5¢ |
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7d | 24h volume | Liquidity | Closes | Paper trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ↑4.75k | >99% | — | — | $15 | $1.9K | 1 Jan 2027 | Yes99.4¢No0.6¢ |
| ↑5k | 98% | — | — | $0 | $4.0K | 1 Jan 2027 | Yes98¢No1.5¢ |
| ↑5.5k | 90% | — | — | $0 | $2.1K | 1 Jan 2027 | Yes90¢No9.9¢ |
| ↑6k | 73% | — | — | $207 | $1.8K | 1 Jan 2027 | Yes73¢No28¢ |
| ↑6.5k | 51% | — | — | $174 | $1.5K | 1 Jan 2027 | Yes51¢No50¢ |
| ↑7k | 41% | — | — | $108 | $388 | 1 Jan 2027 | Yes41¢No59¢ |
| ↑7.5k | 16% | — | — | $101 | $1.6K | 1 Jan 2027 | Yes16¢No84¢ |
| ↑10k | 6.8% | — | — | $295 | $2.0K | 1 Jan 2027 | Yes6.8¢No93¢ |
| ↑12.5k | 5.1% | — | — | $0 | $3.2K | 1 Jan 2027 | Yes5.1¢No95¢ |
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7d | 24h volume | Liquidity | Closes | Paper trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 31, 2026 | 1.1% | — | — | $720 | $3.7K | 1 Nov 2026 | Yes1.1¢No99¢ |
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7d | 24h volume | Liquidity | Closes | Paper trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Plague case in US by December 31? | 6% | — | — | $216 | $2.9K | 1 Jan 2027 | Yes6¢No94¢ |
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7d | 24h volume | Liquidity | Closes | Paper trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russia pneumonic plague spreads abroad? | 3.9% | — | — | $63 | $6.1K | 1 Jan 2027 | Yes3.9¢No96¢ |
| 1 Jan 2027 |
| Yes28¢No73¢ |
| October 31 | <1% | — | — | $1.7K | $846 | 1 Nov 2026 | Yes0.9¢No99.1¢ |
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7d | 24h volume | Liquidity | Closes | Paper trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31 | 2% | — | — | $20 | $5.2K | 1 Jan 2027 | Yes2¢No98¢ |
| November 30 | 1.5% | — | — | $0 | $6.6K | 1 Dec 2026 | Yes1.5¢No99¢ |
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7d | 24h volume | Liquidity | Closes | Paper trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hantavirus vaccine in 2026? | 2.9% | — | — | $0 | $79.0K | 1 Jan 2027 | Yes2.9¢No97¢ |
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7d | 24h volume | Liquidity | Closes | Paper trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US plague travel ban on Russia in 2026? | 2.5% | — | — | $0 | $10.8K | 1 Jan 2027 | Yes2.5¢No97¢ |
| CDC issues Level 3 warning by December 31? | Yes | $150K | 18 May 2026 |
| Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 31? | Yes | $34.1K | 16 May 2026 |
| Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15? | Yes | $1.3M | 16 May 2026 |
| Measles cases in U.S. by April 30? | 1750 | $479K | 1 May 2026 |
| Flu Hospitalization Rate Week 15, 2026? | 85–90 | $39.0K | 24 Apr 2026 |
| Flu Hospitalization Rate Week 12, 2026? | 80–85 | $26.3K | 3 Apr 2026 |
Prices are read from Polymarket's public markets and trades and describe what traders pay, not a forecast or recommendation by Vultax.
