Analytics
Yes is at 42%, up 28 points from 14% when the market opened on 6 Oct 2026.
Across the 23 daily closes on record from 6 Oct 2026 to 30 Oct 2026 (2 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 95.8% on 23 Oct 2026 and the lowest 14% on 6 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 95.8%. Its largest one-day move was 39 points down, to 57.1% on 24 Oct 2026.
It is one of 3 markets under “Measles cases in U.S. by October 31?”.
$617.94 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $7.56K since listing. The order book holds $270.7, with a 23.3% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 136 trades, $1.11K bought Yes and $1.22K bought No.
The largest Yes position is fElon with 216 shares; the largest No position is Ondra with 224. Ten wallets hold 79.1% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Nov 2026, 2 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 30, 11:13 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 23 points, 6 Oct 2026 – 30 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 6 Oct 2026 | 14.0% |
| 30 Oct 2026 | 42.4% |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there have been the specified amount or more confirmed cases of Measles (Rubeola) in humans in the territory of the United States of America in 2026, according to the CDC case counter by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter 'Total Cases' in 2026 (see: https://www.cdc.gov/measles/data-research/index.html) at the resolution time. If the counter becomes unavailable, another credible source will be used. Note: Only cases reported by the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter will qualify, regardless of reports from U.S. State agencies or other sources.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/measles-cases-in-uptspt-by-october-31-20260928t160000000z
| Bold Kestrel 2ACC |
| No |
| 144.69 |
| lucid-for15min-NEXUS-amused-flipper | Yes | 100 |
| Swift Summit CA1B | No | 90 |
| LosingEverything12312312323123 | Yes | 88.49 |
| sabsabinxz | No | 87 |
| STCM | Yes | 85 |
| pootytherewardfarmer | No | 59.9 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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