Analytics
Yes is at 1%, down 13 points from 14.5% when the market opened on 4 Oct 2026.
Across the 19 daily closes on record from 4 Oct 2026 to 30 Oct 2026 (9 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 31.5% on 5 Oct 2026 and the lowest 1% on 30 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 1.4%. Its largest one-day move was 17 points up, to 31.5% on 5 Oct 2026.
$760.24 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $57.36K since listing. The order book holds $4.67K, with a 0.6% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 471 trades, $3.46K bought Yes and $16.71K bought No; the largest was a $1.41K sell of No at 98.1¢.
The largest Yes position is rewardbots with 3.1K shares; the largest No position is AlexiosV with 4K. Ten wallets hold 53.6% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Nov 2026, 2 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 30, 2:21 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 19 points, 4 Oct 2026 – 30 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 4 Oct 2026 | 14.5% |
| 30 Oct 2026 | 1.0% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| AlexiosV | No | 3.96K |
| rewardbots | Yes | 3.14K |
| outcomes | Yes | 2.25K |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a confirmed case of pneumonic plague in a human is reported in the Russian Federation at any point between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM Moscow time, . Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A "confirmed case" is a case explicitly identified by a qualifying source as laboratory-confirmed Yersinia pestis infection with pneumonic (pulmonary) involvement, or explicitly announced as a confirmed pneumonic plague case. Publication of the underlying laboratory results is not required. A bubonic or septicemic case that progresses to pneumonic plague qualifies. A case reported only as "plague" with no form specified, and a case described only as suspected or probable, do not qualify. The case must be distinct from the Irkutsk Anti-Plague Research Institute employee who reportedly passed away on October 1, 2026; subsequent confirmation, reclassification, or post-mortem testing of that patient will not qualify. Resolution turns on the date a qualifying source publishes the confirmation, not the date of exposure, symptom onset, or laboratory result. A report published after the deadline does not count even if the infection occurred earlier. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from Russian federal or regional public health authorities and the WHO; however a consensus of credible sources will also suffice.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/confirmed-pneumonic-plague-case-in-russia-byptptpt
| Quantum777 |
| No |
| 1.73K |
| Talophex | No | 1.42K |
| oiboy69 | No | 1.36K |
| Specksalam | No | 1.23K |
| troim | Yes | 1K |
| xart | No | 1K |
| 1nvoker1 | Yes | 972.9 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
New to prediction markets? How to read a market page
