Analytics
Yes is at 0.5%, down 45 points from 46% when the market opened on 21 Aug 2026.
Across the 66 daily closes on record from 21 Aug 2026 to 28 Oct 2026 (3 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 50.5% on 23 Sep 2026 and the lowest 0.1% on 24 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 2.9%; a month before, 14.6%. Its largest one-day move was 25 points down, to 25.9% on 24 Sep 2026.
50 or more ranks third of the 4 outcomes in “How many West Nile neuroinvasive disease cases will be reported among New York City residents in 2026?”. 20 to 34 leads at 63.7%; 35 to 49 is at 35.1%.
$16.93K traded in the last 24 hours. The order book holds $2.12K, with a 0.3% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 399 trades, $657.09 bought Yes and $5.27K bought No; the largest was a $1.54K sell of No at 86.0¢.
The largest Yes position is 2B9S with 1.2K shares; the largest No position is Indigo Signal 2966 with 7.5K. Ten wallets hold 85.7% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Apr 2027.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 28, 9:38 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 66 points, 21 Aug 2026 – 28 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 21 Aug 2026 | 46.0% |
| 28 Oct 2026 | 0.5% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 7.54K |
| 2B9S | Yes | 1.2K |
| vaniyokk | Yes | 803.86 |
This market resolves based on the total number of West Nile neuroinvasive disease cases (encephalitis, meningitis, and acute flaccid paralysis) reported among New York City residents in 2026, as published by the New York City Department of Health and Mental Hygiene on its West Nile Virus Reports page at nyc.gov/site/doh/health/health-topics/west-nile-virus-reports.page. Cases are counted as whole numbers, so each outcome covers a distinct range with no overlap or gap. The 2026 count shown on the source as of January 1, 2027 is the starting figure. If the DOHMH publishes or revises the 2026 count on or after January 1, 2027, this market will resolve based on the count shown on the source at 11:59 PM ET on the 14th day after the first such update, or on March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, whichever comes first. If no such update occurs, this market will resolve on March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, based on the 2026 count shown on the source at that time. If no 2026 count has been published on the source by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the sum of 2026 West Nile neuroinvasive disease case counts reported by CDC ArboNET for the five New York City counties (Bronx, Kings, New York, Queens, and Richmond). Revisions published after this market resolves will not be considered. If the DOHMH changes its reporting format or URL structure, the closest equivalent NYC Health Department publication of 2026 West Nile neuroinvasive case data will be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/west-nile-neuroinvasive-cases-nyc-2026-20260820104404
| haouibao |
| Yes |
| 755 |
| xtxpleasecallme | Yes | 634.31 |
| Neon Atlas F332 | Yes | 542.09 |
| balthazar | Yes | 533.85 |
| Coral Orbit E8E5 | Yes | 340 |
| BreaktheChain | Yes | 323.63 |
| bigdihhh888 | Yes | 300 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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